Biden's peace bluff means there's no way out for Netanyahu

Tom Fowdy 

Source: Al Mayadeen English

No matter what happens, it seems quite obvious that "Israel" is losing this war diplomatically and politically, even with the backing of the United States.

The Biden administration last week proposed a "ceasefire" deal which it claimed had originated from "Israel", seeking a pathway to ending the war on Gaza by guaranteeing the release of hostages, arguing that the military capability of Hamas had been destroyed. Although swiftly dismissed by Tel Aviv, Washington quickly rallied its allies and other Arab states to support the measure. This, however, is wishful thinking, given that the US was clearly being disingenuous with the idea that "Israel proposed it."

First, the Biden administration has a well-established political strategy of effectively lying on behalf of "Israel". The White House effectively sets red lines, but moves the goalposts when Netanyahu subsequently violates them anyway. The administration claimed that it opposed an IOF invasion of Rafah, but when that happened, they claimed the "red line had been crossed," among numerous other things. Every action the US has taken in regards to the conflict has been merely symbolic, if not outright disingenuous, while nonetheless keeping support for Tel Aviv unconditional.

However, domestic politics comes first in the United States, and the Biden administration is now seeking to bring the war to an end, or to at least given the appearance of such, because the growing backlash against it will undermine Biden's re-election interests, as well as his attempt to claim a massive political scalp by upgrading ties with Saudi Arabia and pushing normalisation with "Israel". In doing so, the real intention of this ceasefire proposal has been to comprehensively isolate Benjamin Netanyahu and back him into a corner, as toothless as this may be. As Reuters noted, "The decision to announce unilaterally - an unusual step for the United States to take with a close ally - was deliberate, officials say, and narrowed the room for Israel or Hamas to back away from the deal."

However, it is politically untenable for Netanyahu to possibly consider ceasing the fighting at this stage, for he is aware this will certainly mean the end of his tenure in office. Already, hardliners in his cabinet have threatened to resign over it and jeopardise the ruling coalition. For his administration, agreeing to a ceasefire now is an effective return to a pre-October 7th status quo that amounts to "co-existence" between "Israel" and Hamas in Gaza, and this is impossible because Netanyahu has repeatedly and publicly affirmed that the goal of his invasion has been to change the political status quo in the Strip. 

This means first. the destruction of Hamas, and second, what he has described as a "new security regime" in the strip, which should be described as a full military occupation in all but name. The ceasefire proposal, however, requires that "Israel" withdraw from the populated areas of the Gaza Strip. This means ceding political control, and therefore contravenes his maximalist objectives. Already, "Israel" has seized control of Gaza’s entire border area and therefore is preparing to establish de-facto sovereignty over it. It is precisely for this reason that the most hardline Zionists will not agree to it, because their broader objective is to effectively incorporate and settle the territory.

Therefore, a retreat from this would be nothing less than a huge political defeat for him, a loss of legitimacy, and an upheaval of the political regime he has built. All in pursuit of these goals, Netanyahu has overseen the global ruination of "Israel’s" reputation. To turn round and say, "Let’s go back to square one" means that all of that would have been absolutely in vain. He would have "nothing to show" for this "return to status quo" outcome, and therefore his only perceived pathway to political survival is the perpetuation of conflict towards attaining the goals the hardliners so crave.

Either way, this makes one statement true: No matter what happens, it seems quite obvious that "Israel" is losing this war diplomatically and politically, even with the backing of the United States. It can either stop now and cut its losses, thus ending the Benjamin Netanyahu coalition, or it can continue onwards in its extreme brutality and disregard for human life, which will only beckon deeper isolation. Biden has tried to box Netanyahu in, but in fact he’s already done that to himself. There’s no easy way out.

"Israel" can lose by agreeing to peace, or they can lose by winning.