NOURNEWS – Only a year has passed since the last trip of Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to Iran, but the rapid developments in the region have led to a reevaluation and understanding of meetings and discussions that were routine in previous years. What factors have made the trip and potential achievements of the UN nuclear watchdog in Iran different from the past?
On December 3, 2019, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency convened to select a replacement for Yukiya Amano, the 72-year-old Japanese diplomat who had been re-elected as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency after two four-year terms, but his sudden death left his nuclear mission incomplete.
Amano's death occurred as the US unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA heightened tensions between the US and our country. Therefore, both Grossi of Argentina and Cornel Feruta of Romania, who were nominated to succeed Amano, knew that one of the ongoing issues on their agenda was the peaceful nuclear program of Iran.
The selection of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency requires obtaining two-thirds of the votes from the 35 member states of the Board of Governors, and on the day of the election, Grossi, who enjoyed the support of the United States, was chosen as the head of this UN-affiliated agency by receiving 24 positive votes out of a total of 35 member states. He has traveled to Tehran repeatedly in the past five years, and each time, these meetings have been accompanied by sensitivity and controversies, but five issues have made the latest meetings and discussions of the highest-ranking official of the IAEA in Iran different from the usual.
Gaza war: an event that changed Middle East face
Six months after Grossi's last trip to Iran, the Israeli regime attacked Gaza. The longest Zionist attack on Gaza, which recently entered its eighth month, has led to the death of nearly 35,000 Palestinians, including children and women. Although the Gaza war has no direct connection with Iran or Grossi, it is impossible to ignore the extension of tensions and consequences of this war to other areas and relationships, exemplified by the increasing tension between Iran and the Zionist regime and speculations about the possibility of changes in Iran's nuclear doctrine.
Israeli regime's attack on the Iranian consulate and playing with fire
On April 1 of this year, the Israeli regime put an end to the cold war between our country and Tel Aviv by launching an air strike on the Iranian consulate building in Syria. Our country, after witnessing the reaction and silence of international institutions to the attack on its diplomatic premises, was forced to respond militarily and, in the ‘Operation True Promise’ targeted some sites in occupied territories through missile and drone attacks. Following this event, it was announced that the flight of several drones around Isfahan, which were neutralized by our air defenses, was the Zionist regime's response to Iran's targeted and successful attack. It was during this time that the remarks of the IRGC’s Brigadier General Ahmad Haghtalab, stating that "if the fake Zionist regime intends to use the threat of attacking our nuclear facilities to pressure Iran, reconsideration of Iran's nuclear doctrines and policies and deviation from previously declared considerations are possible and conceivable," added fuel to speculations about changes in Iran's nuclear program.
Grossi's Nuclear claim
A few days after these developments, Grossi claimed in an interview with the German news agency "Deutsche Welle" that Iran is only "weeks or a few months" away from building an atomic bomb with sufficient enriched uranium. Although he also emphasized that "this statement does not mean that Iran possesses or will possess nuclear weapons during this period," his remarks, as anticipated, found its audiences, once again reopening past issues with the claim that "Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon."
Discrepancies between Tehran and IAEA
The list of differences between Tehran and the IAEA is not short, as Iran has, over the past years, based on a firm belief in the necessity of resolving and eliminating differences and misunderstandings through dialogue and constructive interaction, engaged in close and constructive dealings with the agency, and, while continuing continuous technical and legal negotiations on files monitored by the agency, resolved several important issues, including the alleged two sites among the four sites claimed by this entity, the agency's ambiguity about 84% uranium particles, and the non-uniformity of nuclear materials at the Jabber Ibn Hayyan laboratory.
However, the agency's behavior, which can only be described as excessive, does not contribute to the formation of more constructive relations between Iran and this entity. According to the agency's latest report to the Board of Governors submitted in last March, "Iran has not provided valid technical explanations to the agency for the existence of uranium particles of human origin in Varamin and Turquzabad, and has not informed the agency of the current locations of nuclear materials or contaminated equipment"; an allegation that indicates that the agency still has open files, although no evidence has been provided for these claims.
Another point of disagreement is that Iran, after the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA, temporarily suspended all voluntary transparency measures beyond the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement, including the implementation of Code 3.1, and conditioned its continuation on the commitments of the other party. However, the agency interpreted Iran's suspension of Code 3.1 implementation as a violation of agreements, and Grossi subsequently considered Iran a violator of agreements in his reports and interviews. Iran also canceled the appointment of eight French and German inspectors due to the political exploitation by European countries of the Board of Governors' space, and Grossi claimed in response that Iran's action affects the normal implementation of the agency's verification activities in our country. According to Article 1 of Clause 9 of the Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement, the agency must obtain Iran's consent for the appointment of its proposed inspectors. Following the cancellation of the appointment of eight inspectors by Iran, Iran accepted 14 new inspectors proposed by the agency.
Whispers of Iran-US negotiations
The exchange and indirect exchange of views between Washington and Tehran is one of the most interesting topics for political, international, and media gatherings, often fueled by speculations, rumors, and quotes from credible and informed sources. The exchange of messages between Iran and the US during the Gaza war, the six-month gap until the US presidential elections, the possibility of Donald Trump's victory, and... are events that give meaning to any official or unofficial action or reaction by American and Iranian officials.
The sum of these developments indicates that the Middle East is not the same place Grossi left a year ago. Without a doubt, he does not have the necessary and sufficient authority or unlimited time to resolve all the points of contention during his trip to Iran. Especially since he in recent weeks, with political statements against our country, have shown a lack of foresight and the necessary will to find a solution, it is not possible to expect achievements from his trip that can be considered a significant progress in Iran's relations with the agency.
Grossi declared diplomacy inevitable in dealing with our country some time ago and said Iran in 2015 is not Iran in 2024. To this sentence, it must be added that after the recent developments in the region over the past few months, West Asia has also seriously deviated from its previous situation and undergone serious changes. Therefore, the agency must, by understanding the new conditions and distancing itself from political approaches, take more constructive steps to fulfill its professional role in helping to reduce tension, promote peace, and achieve sustainable security.
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