The wars that have changed the equations of the region

BY: Pooya Mirzaei

The last days of 2023 brought worse news for the world that was getting used toThe last days of 2023 brought worse news for the world that was getting used to hearing war news under the shadow of the war between Russia and Ukraine. In the past year and before October 7, what filled the air were the consequences of the devastating war between Ukraine and Russia, but after the days that were passing in the news of this war, October became the news bomb of the year; The surprise attack of "Hamas" on Tel Aviv, which shocked the leaders of Israel and its allies; The attack and the events after it, regardless of its regional dimensions, emitted meaningful messages in the international arena.

NOURNEWS-It was February 25, 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ended the many years of speculation about the historical claims of Ukraine and Russia and issued the order for military operations against "Kyiv". A war whose cause was noticed above all because it was synonymous with a territorial claim. But it was found that the roots of this unequal military battle should not be sought in Russia, but rather it should be sought in America and in the heart of the goals that this country had designed in the process of its regional strategy.

Much of what happened in the political and military spheres of the world and the region after the start of the Ukraine war and reached the events of October 7 and the operations of the "Al Aqsa Storm" were domino-related. The set of security challenges that, according to "John Mearsheimer", an American expert analyst, the big and dominant players present in it, under the banner of the "power transfer" theory, play a role in the surrounding environment of the emerging powers and try to develop and influence themselves in the wider international arena as much as possible; An approach whose signs were seen in the Ukraine equation, and the United States and its European allies saw this country as a controlling sphere next to Russia, whose weakening would threaten the strategic interests of the United States in this part of the region and weaken the growing competition with Moscow and Beijing. According to America, Ukraine was the transit point for more than 80% of Europe's gas imported from Russia, and without the presence of this country and Russia's energy highway to the West, Moscow's efforts would be devoid of geopolitical influence. In such an environment, the occupation of "Crimea" by Russia and its support to the separatists of eastern Ukraine was a good opportunity for the West to pursue the policy of creating and escalating the crisis by indirectly supporting "Kyiv" under the pretext of challenging the existing political order. However, the occurrence of this war and the expansion of its scope made it clear that Washington lacks a clear and specific strategy for a full-scale field commitment to Ukraine or for a diplomatic compromise with Russia, thus leaving "Kyiv" alone in an unequal battleground.

Israel's exit from the safe margin

The October 7, 2023, war in the Gaza Strip cannot be evaluated without the West's strategy towards Ukraine. Tel Aviv has always been considered one of the main sides of the implementation of the policy of creating crisis and a controlling component in the peripheral environment of a range of emerging international and regional powers. In this way, to the extent that the number of Israeli security actions in the region increased, alarm bells were sounded for the governmental and non-governmental actors in the region, from the Palestinian Resistance Front to the Islamic Republic, based on the threat to their interests in West Asia. In such an environment, the weakening of Hamas and the flow of Palestinian Islamic resistance, which are facing Israel and the Western countries, could become a red line for the great powers of the Middle East region, including Iran. In this way, in parallel with the fact that Western actors see Tel Aviv as a deterrent against regional actors and a factor to fulfill their regional demands, the influential actors of West Asia also consider the weakening of Hamas and the resistance against their regional strategy. However, the occurrence of the "Al-Aqsa Storm" operation and the failure of Israel's intelligence and security system at a time when the most extreme government in history of Israel was at work in this occupied land showed that the increased security of the Israeli government and the presence of anti-Palestinian tendencies along with the special support that this regime received from Western allies, especially the United States, not only did not create a security margin for it, but also caused more vulnerability.

War and two approaches

The war in Ukraine, which has practically faced a stalemate without prospects in recent months and was stuck like a bone in the throat of the United States and its allies in NATO, suddenly, under the shadow of the war that started with the "Al-Aqsa Storm" operation in Gaza, has been removed from the attention of the countries. The Western system has left, and "Volodymyr Zelenskyy", the president of Ukraine, has suddenly received the consequences of his costly war with Russia, and has left the media's attention and the lens of the media's camera and has turned to the bloody events of the Middle East; It was natural to worry this adventurous politician; Because he knew very well that he lost the competition from the point of view of the position of Ukraine and Israel in the process of goals and interests pursued by America and its western partners. Therefore, it could be predicted that if the Gaza war continues and the Western support for Ukraine against Russia continues to decrease, the terrible nightmare of being abandoned against Russia for "Zelenskyy", who previously welcomed the comprehensive support of NATO and especially the United States, become a reality. In such an atmosphere, it seemed natural that the positions of the Western authorities regarding the war between Moscow and Kyiv, which include "not taking land by force", "prohibition of erasing the borders of other countries", "not targeting civilians in war", and "no war aggressor" during Russia's conflict with Ukraine, was not heard about the Gaza war and during the three months that have passed since its beginning.

Emergence of the new order

While Russia's war in Ukraine should be considered as the final seal on the dream of Europe's defense and security autonomy, which decisively changed the scales among European politicians in favor of the pro-Atlantic faction and emphasized the necessity of strengthening the interaction with NATO under the leadership of the United States. But by comparing the roots of the war in Ukraine and Gaza under the shadow of the strategy of "creating a crisis in the peripheral regions", we can talk about a bigger change in the framework of global interactions, which tells about the changing process of power relations; A period that carries with it a series of disturbances and disruptions until the establishment of a new order and puts an end to the domination and supremacy of the United States.

Meanwhile, the war in Gaza has increased the depth and dimensions of the international faults that had already been created following the Russian military operation in Ukraine, and now this gap is showing up more than ever with bloody events in the occupied territories. China and Russia, the two major Asian players in a no-holds-barred partnership, have expressed their opposition to the Middle East war and are creating new arrangements to replace the new order that the rules and institutions that emerged from the approach of the United States and its allies in the post-World War II era. And in this regard, the connection of big and small players in the West Asian region, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, to this partnership can disrupt the dreams that America had for the future of its exit from the Middle East through the project of outsourcing to Israel.