By Ceyda Karan
The Cradle
A lot has changed since Erdogan’s 'one minute' moment at Davos in 2009. Once celebrated for championing pro-Palestinian rhetoric and action in the region, Turkiye today, at best, aims for a backroom mediation role.
Despite strong reactions from his public, and especially his Islamist base, Erdogan waited an inexplicably long time before delivering a message at his party's parliamentary group meeting this week:
"Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but a group of mujahideen fighting to protect its citizens", he said. Reminding the crowd of 'the good old' Ottomans, he added, "When the powers on whose backs Israel leans today are gone tomorrow, the first place the Israeli people will look for reassurance will be Turkiye, as it was 500 years ago." Erdogan said that contrary to the west, Turkiye owed Israel nothing.
And then he balanced his stance by saying, "We have no problem with Israel, but we have never and will never approve of the way it acts like an organization instead of a state."
If anything, his message can be interpreted as a direct embrace of Hamas, rather than criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza. Importantly, while underlining the 'guarantor' offer that Ankara has been offering both sides for more than two weeks, he stated that Turkiye is not seeking this role alone but 'with other participants'.
But even this relatively balanced exit drew a reaction from the markets. The Turkish stock market dropped by 5 percent, forcing a halt in trading. This announcement is sure to complicate the job of Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, who is busy trying to attract western capital to Turkiye.
From Davos to Mavi Marmara
Turkiye's behavior in the recent Gaza crisis provides a peek into its West Asian policies, vis a vis its post-election pivot to the west.
On 29 January, 2009, at the Davos Summit of the World Economic Forum, then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan interrupted Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres' speech with a stern: "One minute," stating, "You know very well how to kill. I know very well how you kill children on the beaches," before abruptly storming off stage.
This unexpected outburst, contravening Ankara’s decades-long amicable stance towards the occupation state, sent shockwaves through the audience and beyond. It was seen as a watershed moment that thrust Erdogan into the global spotlight, instantly making him a pro-Palestinian icon not only in the Arab and Islamic world but also at home in Turkiye, where he received a hero’s welcome.
At the time, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) were widely viewed as a symbol of "moderate Islam" and enjoyed the backing of the US and its western allies. As a result, the “One minute” crisis in Davos was quickly defused. However, tensions reached a boiling point a year later when the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara, part of a flotilla aiming to deliver aid to besieged Palestinians, attempted to break through Israel's blockade of Gaza.
On 31 May, 2010 Israeli commandos conducted a lethal raid on the Mavi Marmara, whose journey was sponsored by the Turkish charity IHH Relief Foundation and the Free Gaza Movement. This infamous operation resulted in the deaths of 10 Turkish citizens, injuries to 50 others, and the detention of the remaining passengers.
This time, the rift could not be resolved amicably. Diplomatic ties between Israel and Turkiye were downgraded, military relations were suspended, and trade relations suffered a temporary disruption.
Legal cases against four Israelis, including Israel's then-Chief of Staff Gabriel Ashkenazi, were initiated in Turkish courts, but were dropped in 2016 when Tel Aviv agreed to a $20 million victim compensation payout, three years after an official apology was issued.
Nevertheless, Erdogan continued to emerge as a prominent advocate for the Palestinian cause and a vocal figure in the Arab and Islamic world, just as West Asia was undergoing a seismic transformation. Turkiye found itself playing a pivotal role during and after the Arab Spring, throwing its weight behind Islamist parties and factions.
Turkish-Israeli trade surge
Yet as the unrest spilled into neighboring Syria – the strongest Arab state supporter of the Palestinian cause - many were surprised at Erdogan’s “regime change” posture, particularly given the strength of Damascus’ ties with Ankara and the Turkish government’s "zero problem with neighbors" policy.
Erdogan's Arab romance came to a screeching halt when he made a startling sectarian accusation, calling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's rule a "Nusayri dictatorship" (a derogatory term for followers of the Alawi sect, to which the Assad family, along with political and military elites belong), and claiming the state was persecuting Syria's Sunni-majority populace.
When Syria descended into war and chaos, sharp divisions emerged among sponsors of the armed opposition groups, including Turkiye, Persian Gulf states, the US, and Europe. Erdogan soon found himself increasingly isolated in the region - with the notable exception of Qatar, a staunch Arab ally similarly sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Today, Erdogan's “one minute” at Davos and the “Mavi Marmara" incident are relics of the past. Despite Erdogan's previous anti-Israel rhetoric and diplomatic posturing, a lot has changed on the ground, most notably, thriving trade relations between Turkiye and Israel.
Turkish-Israeli trade volume has seen an astonishing 532 percent increase over the past two decades, reaching a staggering $8.91 billion in 2022. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) private trade system data, Turkiye's exports to Israel in 2002 - the year the AKP came to power - were $861.4 million, while imports from Israel were $544.5 million.
Meeting in New York during the UN General Assembly sessions for the first time in person since the warming of ties, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Erdogan, discussed the potential for Israel to use Turkiye as an energy transit hub to Europe.
Erdogan's shifting Palestinian support
Throughout his career, Erdogan has maintained support for the Palestinian cause, employing varying tones to balance his alliances with western countries while enhancing his reputation in West Asia and the wider Muslim world.
Erdogan strongly objected to the widely condemned relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem during the Trump era and supported Palestine's “non-member observer state” status at the UN. Over the years, he has shown a remarkable ability to opportunistically adjust his rhetoric to suit his evolving interests and alliances.
While many Arab countries' support for the Palestinian statehood cause has waned due to repeated defeats against Israel and their re-alignment with US interests, Erdogan has remained, at least vocally, as a steadfast advocate for the Palestinian struggle.
After the Palestinian resistance's 7 October Al-Aqsa Flood breakthrough operation inside occupied areas, in the absence of an immediate Israeli response, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement urging restraint and strongly condemning the loss of civilian lives. It emphasized that acts of violence would be detrimental and called for avoiding impulsive actions while advocating for an end to the use of force and a two-state solution.
Ankara quickly expressed its readiness to contribute to mediation efforts. This measured tone was unusual considering Erdogan's typically more flamboyant rhetoric. At the time of Al-Aqsa Flood, however, the Turkish president was preparing to host Netanyahu and planning a return visit to pray at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
That is not to say that Ankara isn't raising the Palestinian issue on all appropriate platforms. Erdogan is engaged in diplomatic phone calls while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has advanced a proposal that somehow makes Turkiye a guarantor for Hamas.
In spite of these gestures, Ankara's tone remains muted. All it could do was declare a three-day period of mourning for Palestinians. Fidan's words summarize the situation:
"I wish patience to the Gazans. I want them to know that we are doing everything we can. God willing, these days will pass. Turkiye will continue to stand by them. We see this pain and sorrow as our own pain and sorrow. They are not alone."
What is clear, however, is that Turkiye and Erodgan are not at the forefront of the discourse today. The absence of a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ankara during his recent shuttle diplomacy in the region symbolizes this shift.
At this juncture, Turkiye’s stance on the Palestinian issue lags behind that of many Arab states. Israel, with the backing of the US, is pushing for the “evacuation” of Gaza's civilian population to facilitate its ground military operation, forcing Egypt and Jordan, key regional players, to reject plans for this forced and seemingly permanent displacement of Palestinians.
Jordan's King Abdullah II and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi have explicitly rejected this demand, deeming it a red line.
Qatar, a financial powerhouse for the Muslim Brotherhood, and Turkiye, once seen as its political representative, now play more static roles in regional affairs.
Erdogan's involvement in Syria, while eroding Turkiye’s historically supportive position for both Fatah and Hamas in the Palestinian struggle, has contributed to a regional realignment in which Iran has grown stronger. Erdogan, once known for his vocal opposition to Israel, is now positioned as a “peace mediator.”
Erdogan’s shift from idealism to hard interests
Several geopolitical, political, and economic factors underlie this transformation.
The influence of the Muslim Brotherhood has significantly declined after a tragic decade of “Arab Spring-ing,” and Erdogan now needs the support and cooperation of Egypt and the Persian Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia. He also aims to strike a delicate balance with the US and the EU.
His foreign policy motto now revolves around mediation, which has been evident in various conflicts, such as Libya and Ukraine — where Turkiye played a key role in grain distribution.
Domestically, Erdogan faces challenges too. Public discontent is growing due to the influx of refugees, as anti-Arab sentiments deepen in Turkish society.
Erdogan's failed Ottomanist aspirations have given rise to a resurgence of secular Turkish nationalism among the younger generation. The Turkish left, with its history of supporting the Palestinian struggle for a nation-state, protests against religious-based policies, now positioning itself against Islamist perspectives.
In these circumstances, Ahmet Davutoglu, the former architect of the disastrous West Asian foreign policy, and now the leader of the opposition Future Party, said the following:
"I knew a leader, a leader I was proud to be with, a leader who made my heart flutter when he said 'One minute' and when everyone was threatening him, I said 'Mr. Prime Minister, don't worry. You made history today. We will do what is necessary’ and I made him apologize to Shimon Peres. Today, my heart cannot accept that that leader has been silent for 10 days. My heart does not accept that he did not come out and shout, 'O Israel'."
This reflects the sentiments of many AKP supporters when Davutoglu expressed disappointment in Erdogan's relatively muted response to the Gaza war. Ironically, the Islamist Turkish president's policy approach today is more realpolitik than the idealism inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood.
While some of his supporters at home and abroad may yearn for the fiery rhetoric of the past, Erdogan's current approach seems to prioritize stability, economic interests, and a balanced foreign policy over Palestine.
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