Source: Al Mayadeen English
Chaos has been brewing inside the Zionist Entity, over passing of the first amendment bill in a package of legislation that aims to curtail the power of the Israeli supreme court. As Israeli domestic turmoil boils over, this does present opportunities to the regional resistance forces, however, this idea is being overblown by Western media to divert attention.
Regardless of what the percentages are of Israeli Jews who believe that the far-right coalition of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is making a correct decision or a wrong one, the fact remains that the issue is extremely divisive on a number of levels. A number of Zionist officials, including ex-PMs, the current Israeli President, and opposition members, have warned of a looming Israeli civil war, which is more likely hyperbole than reality, yet reflects the nature of the issue at hand. Israeli military officials, including its chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, have warned that due to some 10,000 reservists threatening to stay at home and boycott their roles, the battle-readiness of the Zionist military will be compromised within weeks to months.
To compound the issues of widespread protests, a decline in investments in "Israel’s" lucrative high-tech sector, the decline of the Israeli shekel, road-blocks, inter-Zionist car rammings and violence, are the main reason behind the sudden decline in Benjamin Netanyahu’s health. The Israeli PM was admitted to the hospital on Sunday, owing to a long-hidden heart condition, needing an emergency surgery to implant a pacemaker. Netanyahu had managed to cover up a condition that he has had for over two years, where he has occasional irregular heartbeats, which took him out of action as the Zionist Entity plunged into chaos over the legal reform bills passing. Even the US government offered a rare intervention, expressing that the amendments passing was “unfortunate” and calling for the Israeli regime to reach a consensus with the opposition.
A lot has been said in Western media on the threats potentially posed by the likes of Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance, with analysis pieces claiming that the situation sets the scene for a less prepared Israeli regime; against its regional adversaries. Active attempts are being made also, to tie the deteriorating situation at the border between occupied Palestine and Lebanon, to the current crisis inside the entity. These takes are either ill-educated or disingenuously tied together, specifically to shift blame and attention over to other regional actors.
The current situation most certainly benefits the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance, along with various countries in the region, but not necessarily in the way of providing an opening to attack at this time. In fact, attacking right now would simply shift the Zionist public's attention away from the failing Far-Right coalition, and this is why the resistance forces are likely sitting back, maintaining an inquisitive and even defensive posture in some cases.
For Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, he has two options. Option one is to drag the Zionist public into a broader confrontation and inflict economic damage on the entity itself, as well as strain relations with the West. This is necessary for Netanyahu’s political survival, as his coalition partners - specifically the Religious Zionism party alliance, that has the second most seats in the coalition - are not budging on their goal of pushing through the legal system overhaul, these are extremists who work for the goals of the settler movement, and they have the power to collapse Netanyahu’s government. According to recent polls conducted by the Hebrew media, the Israeli PM’s rival, Benny Gantz, has for the first time become more popular with Zionist voters than Netanyahu, meaning he could lose if another round of elections is triggered.
The second option would be launching a war of aggression if the chaos threatens to severely cripple "Israel"; but this choice would be a pure expression of desperation. This second option could be triggered in a number of ways. Around a month ago now, Netanyahu and his minister of war, Yoav Gallant, launched a limited invasion of Jenin, which not only failed to deal a blow to the Jenin Brigades, but also failed to distract the Israeli public from the legal reforms effectively. This being understood, it is likely that attacks in the West Bank may not trigger great enough responses to pre-occupy the minds of the occupiers, so an attack on Gaza may be the least that can be done to provide a distraction.
If the Zionist regime will attack Gaza, the fact that rockets will be flying into the settlement areas will put the Israeli public into shelters and normally in such times the people will rally behind their leadership. In such a circumstance, another limited attack on Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) would be pointless and ineffective, which is why it is more likely that they would attack Hamas this time. The pretext for attacking Hamas is already in place, something that they have been building for some time in the Zionist press, with threats of assassinating Hamas leaders over the resistance events transpiring in the occupied West Bank. The problem with this is that such an attack could also spread into Lebanon very quickly, which is why they would have to consider options in the north too.
The tensions along the border with Lebanon are completely separate from the Zionist internal issues, in that Hezbollah is not provoking in tandem with the events transpiring over the legal overhaul. For the Lebanese Hezbollah, the issue is very clear: the liberation of the occupied Ghajar village, where the Israelis have recently built a separation wall in order to annex the territory. This fence built around the northern segment of Ghajar village is a clear violation of the Blue Line. This is why Hezbollah has placed a tent in the occupied Shebaa farms area, which the Israelis have been complaining about and making various threats over.
If Netanyahu is looking for a way out of his current predicament and if the situation becomes extremely dire for him, there may even be the option of launching limited strikes against targets inside Lebanese territory, which would trigger a response from Hezbollah. Under such a scenario, the Israelis would not look to provoke a full-scale war, or even necessarily target Hezbollah as such, perhaps attempting to limit its strikes to assassination attacks on Palestinian resistance leaders.
Attacking either Hamas in Gaza, or anyone in Lebanon, would likely backfire massively, which is precisely why the Zionist regime has not yet done this. They have been too afraid of the massive combatant casualties they will suffer in the event of a war with Lebanon, or a ground invasion of Gaza. However, if Netanyahu’s political survival depends upon it, there may now be reason for him to disregard many of the potential consequences and launch such strikes. Despite the potential existing for this, it remains to be seen whether such decisions will be made.
One thing that is for sure at this point, is that Israeli society is deeply divided. Part of the society believes in a radical theocratic vision for the future of the Zionist project, while the other seeks the status quo and to pretend to be a Western “liberal democracy”; two visions that are diametrically opposed. The fact that "Israel" is declining economically, socially and there is potential for political violence to grow in its size, means that the Zionist Entity is weaker, which is indeed convenient for the resistance, and specifically the Palestinian cause in general, and may present openings in the future.
Yet, the idea that the Israeli reservists who are refusing to show up for service will significantly weaken the military is not the case at this time. The readiness of over than 500,000 armed forces - including reserve forces - will be severely affected by tens of thousands of conscientious objectors (conchies), and will undeniably affect the "rising" morale of the Israeli armed forces, which is already extremely weak. Israeli society and the so-called - conceptually speaking - “people’s army” will not tolerate the loss of around 100 soldiers, which means they are simply incapable of handling a real war, and hence the Zionist regime constantly covers up its combatant deaths. A large chunk of those reservists who are stating that they will not attend their jobs, will most likely show up as soon as a war starts also.
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