Thursday, April 27, 2023

Differences of Opinion among NATO Members on Ukraine’s Membership

Strategic Council Online - Opinion: The agenda of the recent meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) in Brussels was to counter the Russian attack and also create suitable conditions for increasing the possibility of Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg requested the NATO member states to allocate 500 million euros annually for the aid package to Ukraine, and Ukraine will receive non-lethal aid from now on. Mahmoud Fazeli - International Affairs analyst

Jens Stoltenberg confidently said NATO allies would continue to provide and supply weapons to Ukraine as long as necessary; the meeting was an essential step on the way to the upcoming “Vilnius-Lithuania” meeting and that they discussed the measures that they can take to ensure Ukraine’s victory in the war and its survival as an independent country in Europe; NATO allies are providing significant support, but more assistance is urgently needed; they must fulfill their promise in the field of training and heavy weapons, continue to increase production of firearms and ammunition, and that they also discussed their political and practical support for Ukraine and reforms in Ukraine.

The NATO Secretary General stated it was essential to avoid freezing the current front in Ukraine and allocate more resources to Kyiv to liberate the areas occupied by the Russians; what NATO wants is to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible to repel a Russian attack and then create the conditions for some negotiation; Ukraine itself decides what conditions are acceptable for negotiations and its outcome; what happens behind the negotiating table is inextricably linked to the use of force on the battlefield; if they intend to reach a negotiated solution through which Ukraine wins tomorrow as an independent country, they must provide military support.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said that at the meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission in Brussels, he announced to the Ukrainian partners that the next NATO meeting in Vilnius in July would be an opportunity to correct the mistakes made at the Bucharest meeting in 2008; allies should discuss this issue and reach a definite conclusion at the summit in Vilnius; NATO’s position regarding Ukraine’s membership has not changed, and Ukraine will become a member of this alliance; the issue of the program of actions for NATO membership has been removed from the agenda because Ukraine has submitted a request for full membership.

The NATO summit was held while the United States, the leading member of NATO, announced allocating a new package of significant security and defense aid worth 2.6 billion dollars to Ukraine. New emergency military assistance allocations are allocated from Pentagon funds under presidential authority in the amount of 500 million dollars and 2.1 billion dollars under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). These aids include “HIMARS” missiles and air defense systems, artillery shells, anti-tank systems, weapons, equipment, and maintenance services. Also, NASAMS anti-aircraft systems and related missiles, 30 mm anti-drone systems, and laser-guided mobile missile systems will be purchased. The new package will also include radars, Grad missiles, rocket launchers, mortar launcher systems, tank ammunition, multiple rocket launchers, precision air munitions, small arms, and related ammunition.

According to the available evidence, the United States is against the proposal of some European countries to present a “roadmap” for Ukraine’s accession to NATO at the upcoming summit of this military alliance. This position indicates the West’s differences in Ukraine’s situation after the war. The United States wants military and financial support and humanitarian aid to Ukraine to push Russia back. This issue will be a priority at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Talking about Ukraine’s membership in NATO will divert the focus of countries from the target of confronting Russia. The US is worried that the deepening of relations with Ukraine will fuel the tension with Moscow, and the tensions with Russia will intensify, including nuclear weapons. “Antony Blinken,” the US Secretary of State, emphasizes that although NATO doors are open for Ukraine to join, this country must achieve the alliance’s standards and cooperation before becoming a member.

After the war with Russia, Ukraine insists on its membership in NATO. Some countries, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, demand deepened relations with Kyiv and Ukraine’s future membership in NATO. Still, the United States, Germany, and Poland are against such efforts. Ukraine insists on immediate accession to NATO, while Ukrainian President Zelensky, in his meetings with European officials, always considers membership in NATO the best security guarantee for his country and wants to speed up the membership process in the NATO military alliance. He has warned that he will only participate in the July summit of NATO leaders if concrete solutions regarding Kyiv’s membership in NATO are presented. Cooperation with NATO and security guarantees after the war are among the solutions that Zelensky expects to receive from the West. According to him, it is only with Ukraine that the NATO alliance can guarantee the absolute protection of Europe from any interference in the lives of the people of that region.

The Secretary General of NATO claimed in his latest positions that Ukraine would become a member of the alliance. Still, it is too early to announce the time to implement the such measure. Despite assurances from NATO leaders that Ukraine will one day join the alliance, the country’s membership prospects remain bleak until the Russia-Ukraine war ends.

Russia believes that the US and NATO participation in the conflict in Ukraine will complicate the situation, but it will not affect the battle’s outcome. Moscow does not doubt that the US and NATO are involved in the conflict in Ukraine. This participation occurs directly and indirectly, and the involvement of both sides in the Ukraine conflict is gradually increasing. Moscow always considers Kyiv’s withdrawal from the military alliance as a condition for resolving the conflict and sees its security threatened by the possible presence of NATO in Ukraine.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has also announced that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is currently not a priority in London’s foreign policy. Although ongoing commitments exist to create a path for Ukraine’s NATO membership, the main focus is defending Ukraine, not its membership in NATO. Although Hungary will support all efforts to start peace talks, it considers it a condition that the Ukrainians return to the rights of the Hungarians of Transcarpathia, which they adhered to before 2015. About 150,000 ethnic Hungarians live in Ukraine, mainly in the Transcarpathia region. Budapest is committed not to releasing those people under any circumstances. Hungary will not support Ukraine’s membership in the European Union or NATO as long as Kyiv’s laws threaten Hungarian-language schools.

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