As two neighbors with long-standing historical relations and extensive economic, social and cultural ties, Turkey and Iran, among the most important regional actors and have an impact on the regional equations, have experienced highs and lows in bilateral relations in the past two decades. Political and geopolitical rivalry to expand regional spheres of influence in the wake of the rapid developments in the region over the past decade or the inconsistent and sometimes conflicting interests in various regional crises during this period have undeniably affected the process of broader cooperation between the two countries.
Meanwhile, with Turkish shift of policy towards reconciliation with neighboring and regional countries in the past two years– which is motivated by fast changes on the regional and international stage, assumption of power by Biden administration in the US, and Arab-Israeli normalization– Tehran-Ankara relationship was expected to undergo positive changes. But this did not happen and changed for worse in the past few months.
Here is a question: How has the Turkish-Israeli de-escalation negatively impacted expected Tehran-Ankara walk towards mending of ties?
Erdogan concessions to revive ties with Tel Aviv
It is not so long since Turkey and the Israeli regime defused their tensions. However, the Israelis have opened their place in the heart of the Turkish leaders in such a way and so fast as if they hold the rule in Turkey. The great flexibility and effort to appease the Israelis can be clearly seen in the behavior of the Turkish government in dealing Iran. In recent months, Turkey has pursued a diplomatic policy of reconciliation with the countries of the region, and Turkish officials during their visits to the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies and the occupied Palestinian territories tried to re-establish relations with these countries by alleviating the rifts. Although the statements by the Turkish officials implied that Ankara would walk the same way with Iran, in the meantime, the Israelis bent over backwards to block Iranian-Turkish ties from returning to rormal.
In recent months, Israeli leaders have been exaggerating the gains of normalization with the Arab states and culmination of this path into a regional alliance in a bid to move out of isolation and critical political conditions, and at same time they put the skids under the process of Iranian rapprochement with Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Here a point is worth mentioning: The rivalry between Iran and the Israeli regime is actually a win-lose game. Therefore, increase in the power of either side means decrease in the power of the opposite side. To put it another way, anything that helps Tel Aviv out of isolation conflicts with the Iranian security interests. Since the Karabakh war in 2020, in which the Israelis sided with Turkey in support of Azerbaijan against Armenia, Tel Aviv embarked on a policy of closeness to Ankara.
The visits by Israeli officials to Turkey and meetings with senior Israeli officials indicate the development of bilateral relations. As the point of all Israeli regional policy is directed against Iran, the policy is being followed in ties to Turkey as well. The Turkish government's recent stance against Iran shows that Ankara officials, to some extent, have leaned to Israeli policies in the region. As Ankara sees Tel Aviv as an important variable in relations with the West and NATO, EU membership bid, foreign trade development, and the Kurdish issue in Iraq and Syria, it begged for relationship improvement with the Israeli regime in recent months. Erdogan went to great lengths in recent months to catch the Israeli attention and favor.
Turkey's pursuit of friendly relationship with Turkey had negatively affected the neighborly relations with Iran due to Tel Aviv’s hostile measures against Tehran. Turkey's cooperation with the Israelis in Karabakh and the Iraqi Kurdistan region pose security threats to Tehran because Israeli presence near the Iranian border is a crossing of the Iranian red line and Turkey-Israel cooperation questions Ankara's "zero problems policy" with neighbors.
Additionally, Turkey and Israel pursue common goal in Syria and it is overthrowing the government of Bashar al-Assad and establishing a government aligned to them.
Also, the closure of Hamas office in Istanbul and Erdogan's meaningful silence to Israeli crimes in the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque in recent months all indicate the Turkish infatuation with the Israelis and that their relations passed normalization to reach cooperation.
Turkey influenced by painting Iran a threat
Beside exchange of visits by Israeli and Turkish officials in the past months, Tel Aviv opened another door to wreck Tehran-Ankara ties. Upon Iranian promise of revenge for assassination of IRGC officer Hassan Sayad Khodaee in Tehran on May 26, a wave of media propaganda was unleashed to Iran, with Israelis claiming Iran planned to target Israeli citizens visiting Turkey in revenge. Israeli officials hit two targets with one shot using anti-Iranian propaganda wave. Firstly, they tried to paint Iran a serious threat to regional security to frustrate Tehran's revenge and secondly imply to Ankara that Tehran is planning to destabilize Turkey. Arrest of a number of Iranians in Turkey for destabilization and terrorism charges demonstrated that Israeli lobby's penetration of Turkish officials' minds was so fast it managed to distance Turkey from Iran within two months. Therefore, postponement of Iranian FM's Ankara visit two weeks ago could mainly be a reaction to recent Turkish government behavior.
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