Dr. Mehdi Fakheri, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated that with Britain’s no-deal withdrawal from the European Union we will definitely be witness to London’s performance in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Britain’s separation from the EU will not be easy and the UK should naturally look for alternative sources of income from anywhere in the world, in any region with any ideology. The British were very much hoping that they could sign a free trade agreement with the United States under Ronald Trump, but this did not happen. After that, they sought to sign a similar agreement with the European Union, but such an understanding was not reached.

Britain Seeking Restoration of Relations with Colonies

The analyst of international developments said: Now London’s effort is to enter into negotiation with some countries. For example, it can be expected that they pursue their former colonies that are within the Commonwealth countries, they also traveled to Africa, but none of those negotiations has reached any conclusion yet; thus, the hope that the British placed with Brexit in commercial interests and economic development has not yet been fulfilled.

Referring to the share of the European Union and major economic hubs in the world trade, Fakheri called Britain’s failure in finding an alternative to the EU as a blow to the position of that country, adding: The collection of small and medium-sized countries cannot provide commercial interests for Britain to the same extent that the EU did; therefore, first of all, it can be said that commercially and economically, Brexit has not been in Britain’s interest so far.

Recalling the seven percent share of the Middle East and Africa in the world trade, the university professor said: Britain’s desire to sign new agreements with the Middle Eastern countries will be welcomed by the countries of the region, which will naturally benefit them if conditions are fair, but cannot have a remarkable impact on Britain’s situation.

Regarding the British military presence in the Persian Gulf after leaving the European Union, he said: Certainly such presence cannot be within the framework of the EU as before. Although their intellectual and ideological vertices are close to each other, Britain will no longer be present in that mechanism.

Sanctions on Iran to Maintain Influence in the Region

Fakheri continued: It seems that considering the historical presence of Britain in the Persian Gulf region since the 17th century and its role in the decision makings of this region, this presence will continue in the same form with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, but Britain will increase coordination with the United States and at the same time try to offer new cards to play in the region.

Referring to the measure of the British House of Commons to examine new sanctions against Iran, the university professor added: This action can be considered as one of the policies in which Britain seeks to maintain its influence in the region, and to this end, has resorted to such methods.

Fakheri, meanwhile, said Britain would not lose its overall coordination with the West, but agreements that had previously been easily reached will not be obtained easily. The economic potential of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region is clear and not at all comparable to that of the European Union or China. It may conclude contracts in this region and even sign a free trade agreement, but the geopolitics of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East are different.

He pointed to the conflict of British interests with some important players in the region, including Iran, Turkey and Russia, and said: Naturally, these countries are not willing to move in line with British policies.

UK’s Reduced Political, Economic Weight in Middle East

The expert on international affairs added: In the short term and in the economic sphere, we will be witness to the British weight loss in the Middle East; but in the political dimension and in the short term, because of the previous relations it had in the region, I think at least it will try to show off its presence in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, and therefore will take steps to coordinate with international alliances and coalitions so that it would not be considered as being absent in the international activities in the region.

Fakheri continued: But in the medium and long term, we will be witness to the decline in the field of political and military presence in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf; therefore, it seems that either in political-security dimension or economically-commercially, the British power and might in general and, of course in this region, will take distance compared to the time it was an active member of the Union and will pay the price for leaving the EU.

He stressed: As the geo-economy of the world has changed, its geopolitics is changing as well. On the other hand, because of this change in circumstances, Britain’s hands will not be so open in the developing countries; therefore, if Britain can adapt to the new conditions, it can, as a rule, continue its former condition; however, given the mechanism in the international system and the context and structure of the British government, this does not seem to be easily done in a short period of time.