The News Explained
The News Explained is a brief look back at the most consequential news from last week with a view to putting them in context. Published every Monday, The News Explained retells each of the selected stories, adds a little perspective, and gives directions as to where things may be headed.
The coronavirus pandemic has made the world less politically eventful. Even if something comes up, it is often overshadowed by the all-consuming viral quandary. Still, the week ending May 10, 2020 did see a little of the momentous news that we were once so used to hearing of.
Is the US dumping Saudi Arabia?
Remember when former US President Barack Obama called Saudi Arabia and the handful of other oil-rich Arab regimes awash in petrodollars and dependent on America for survival the “free-riders?” He may have had just a little more integrity than incumbent Donald Trump when it came to standing by the United States’ putative allies. In comparison, Mr. Trump’s thinking is only explicitly monetary.
On Thursday, May 7, 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was withdrawing its Patriot anti-missile systems and the personnel operating them from Saudi Arabia. It said the US was also winding down military presence in the Persian Gulf.
Some of the military assets being removed had first been deployed to the region in September 2019, when state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia came under attack. Washington and Riyadh said Iran had conducted the attacks, sophisticated as they were, but Tehran strongly denied any involvement, and the Yemeni Houthis, who are at war with Saudi Arabia, claimed responsibility.
While it certainly looks like the United States is unhappy with Saudi Arabia, there are two reasons to think that this is a temporary matter and not a strategic dumping of an erstwhile “ally.”
Firstly, the US is not withdrawing all military support for Saudi Arabia, it is relaxing a military buildup that had come for a specific reason that the US believes no more exists: according to the Journal, the Pentagon has concluded that an immediate threat from Iran to US interests is now gone. Other military assets are being removed, too, but the US will continue to have military presence both in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf.
Yes, a piece of legislation was introduced by US Republican Senators Kevin Cramer and Dan Sullivan at US Congress that would stipulate the removal of all US troops, Patriot missiles, and other anti-missile systems from Saudi Arabia unless Riyadh stopped an oil price war with Russia that had led to a crash of crude prices. And Mr. Trump had, according to Reuters, threatenedSaudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that he would not be able to stop that legislation from going forward if the price war did not end. But Riyadh has acquiesced and that price war is over.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia has not stopped being a source of revenue and strategic interest for the United States. It continues to be the wobbly dictatorship that relies on foreign support in a rivalry with Iran and that happens to have access to a lot of money. So, that cow — to borrow Mr. Trump’s terminology — has not gone dry!
The US has never liked Saudi Arabia. Once, it looked at the country as a critical provider of an energy source so much in domestic demand. Later, it perceived Riyadh as a strategic tool (and a foothold in the region) in a broader rivalry with Iran. (And sometimes, the two sorts of US interest in Saudi Arabia overlapped.) The United States and Saudi Arabia were never true friends to begin with. So, thinking that they have fallen out now is wrong.
The withdrawal certainly makes Saudi Arabia look bad, and abandoned. But the US will continue to have an interest in its relationship with Saudi Arabia and will not abandon it for now. So, no, the United States is not dumping Saudi Arabia.
Have a great week!
No comments:
Post a Comment