Israel's war on Gaza and Cairo's bid to pre-empt a forced Palestinian displacement may be pushing Egypt toward redefining sovereignty in Sinai.
The pillars of the “cold peace” that governed the region for nearly half a century are under visible strain. For the first time since the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1979, Cairo is deploying military forces to the peninsula at an unprecedented scale and with advanced capabilities.
Last week Egypt’s State Information Service (SIS) issued a statement explaining that the forces in Sinai “are primarily aimed at securing the Egyptian borders against all threats, including terrorism and smuggling, and in coordination with the parties to the peace treaty, which Egypt is keen to maintain, given that throughout its history it has not violated any treaty or agreement.”
Nevertheless, Tel Aviv views this shift with deep strategic anxiety despite triggering Cairo’s concerns by the ongoing war on Gaza and its implications for Egyptian national security. The Sinai buildup signals a breakdown in trust, a divergence in strategic vision, and the collapse of assumptions that once anchored Washington's most prized regional alliance.
The view from Tel Aviv
Since the start of the war on Gaza, Israeli intelligence and satellite monitoring have tracked abnormal Egyptian troop movements. This is no longer about temporary troop surges permitted in the past under counterterrorism pretexts.
Egypt has moved armored divisions, special forces, advanced air defense systems, and fighter jets into expanded and modernized bases in Sinai – including Zones B and C, which are subject to strict demilitarization under the Camp David treaty.
From Israel’s perspective, this is a dangerous erosion of the treaty’s security annex, which was designed to keep Sinai demilitarized and serve as a strategic buffer. Alarmed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly appealed to Washington – the treaty’s guarantor – to pressure Cairo to roll back its deployment.
According to Axios, an Israeli official said, “What the Egyptians are doing in Sinai is very serious and we are very concerned.”
Tel Aviv’s anxieties go beyond hardware and headcounts. Analysts at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) speak of a “gradual shift in the security balance.” After years of joint coordination against ISIS in Sinai – during which Israel exercised flexibility with treaty provisions – Tel Aviv now fears Egypt is using this context to enforce a new status quo.
Former Israeli ambassador to Cairo David Gofrin claims that Israeli escalation in Gaza and Egypt’s fear of refugee influx have pushed Cairo to reinforce its military presence, potentially setting the stage for a lasting shift in the balance of power in Sinai.
Israel has also accused Egypt of constructing underground facilities that may serve as strategic weapons and missile depots. Even if currently empty, Tel Aviv sees them as offensive infrastructure, undermining the very logic of Sinai's demilitarization.
Egypt’s ‘diminished sovereignty’ in Sinai
Egypt dismisses the Israeli allegations outright. Officials describe the military moves as an act of sovereignty and a defensive requirement driven by Israeli policies. Cairo's posture is shaped by two core concerns:
First, to prevent a forced displacement of Palestinians into Egyptian territory. Cairo believes Netanyahu's government seeks to render Gaza uninhabitable and push its almost 2 million residents into Sinai. This scenario – known as “transfer” – is seen in Cairo not only as a national security risk but as the final liquidation of the Palestinian cause and an existential threat to Egypt. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has repeatedly called this a “red line” Egypt will not allow to be crossed.
Second, to restore Egypt's full sovereignty over Sinai. Former Egyptian officials say the treaty's constraints were born of a specific historical moment. Today, with security threats evolving, they argue the Egyptian military must have full latitude to secure the peninsula.
The recent statement from SIS affirmed that “the presence of the Egyptian Armed Forces in Sinai – or in any part of Egyptian territory – is entirely subject to what the General Command of the Armed Forces deems necessary and required to protect Egypt’s national security.”
This shift suggests a new Egyptian military doctrine, one that reinterprets treaty obligations through the lens of existential threats and strategic autonomy.
Collapse of trust: From cold peace to mutual suspicion
Cairo's anger has been building steadily, driven by years of Israeli provocations and a growing sense that the strategic balance is being undermined. The war on Gaza has merely brought that frustration to the forefront.
The Israeli army's complete takeover of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza–Egypt border was seen as a direct violation of the treaty and an attempt to assert full Israeli control over Egypt's eastern flank.
Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have repeatedly accused Egypt of enabling weapons transfers to Hamas. Cairo has rejected these as fabrications aimed at deflecting from Israeli failures.
Israel’s obstruction of humanitarian aid into Gaza through the Rafah Crossing, and efforts to blame Egypt, have further strained Cairo’s domestic and international position.
The killing of an Egyptian soldier by Israeli fire in May 2024 sparked public and official outrage, laying bare the volatility on the ground.
Energy leverage and economic friction
The crisis cannot be considered purely military. Energy relations are now a flashpoint. Egypt, gripped by an economic crisis and gas production shortfalls, increasingly depends on Israeli gas to meet domestic needs and to re-export liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. This interdependence was once seen as a stabilizing factor.
But reports have emerged that Netanyahu threatened to suspend a $35-billion gas deal with Egypt as a pressure tactic. Though unfulfilled, the threat revealed Tel Aviv’s willingness to weaponize energy – sparking concern in Cairo, which seeks to position itself as a regional energy hub.
Cairo's pan-Arab ambition meets Gulf realism
Amid the crisis, President Sisi revived the long-dormant idea of a unified ‘NATO-style’ Arab army during the emergency Arab-Islamic summit hosted by Qatar, following Israel’s strikes targeting a Hamas delegation in Doha. The rejected proposal reflects Egypt’s historical aspiration to resume de facto leadership of the Arab world. But it faces a regional order that has shifted dramatically.
The Persian Gulf’s core states – especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia – no longer see Cairo as the region’s natural leader. They have crafted their own foreign policies, rooted in direct relations with the US but open to the multipolar reality. While Egypt views Israel as the current regional threat, Gulf states remain fixated on Iran as their main strategic rival.
The Abraham Accords have deepened this divide, creating a normalization bloc led by Israel. For Gulf signatories, any anti-Israel military alignment is now politically implausible. Economic factors also constrain Egypt. Persian Gulf analysts increasingly view Cairo as financially fragile and reliant on Gulf aid. This limits its ability to bankroll major military projects or influence regional dynamics.
Sinai’s fault lines
The military build-up in Sinai has thrown Egypt–Israel relations into a period of deep uncertainty. What previously passed for stability has fractured into mutual suspicion and mounting risk. Cairo’s moves reflect a hardened stance – both in response to Tel Aviv’s escalation in Gaza and in pursuit of military sovereignty.
Whether the days ahead lead to recalibration or confrontation hinges on decisions made in Cairo, Tel Aviv, and Washington. There remains space for updated security arrangements brokered through US mediation. Without this, there is a heightened risk of open conflict through broken energy deals, severed coordination, or armed incidents on the border.
These would not necessarily be one-offs. In June 2023, an Egyptian conscript crossed into Israeli territory and killed three soldiers. Egypt said the conscript was pursuing drug smugglers, while Israel claimed it was a premeditated attack. The incident, which ended with the soldier's death, rattled both governments and revealed the fragility of a security arrangement already under strain.
A single misstep, particularly over the refugee question, could trigger a wider clash. The strategic confrontation unfolding in Sinai cuts to the heart of Gaza’s fate and Egypt’s effort to reassert its centrality in a regional order now up for grabs.
No comments:
Post a Comment