Homayoun Qasemi – International Relations Researcher
A significant portion of 21st-century military conflicts have not ended in peace; instead, the parties have either reached a fragile ceasefire or, due to the subsiding of hostilities, have halted at the frontlines. Currently, despite ongoing efforts, there is no clear prospect for achieving lasting peace in the Ukraine war. It is worth noting that Russia has a history of leaving wartime status unresolved—for example, after World War II, due to disputes with Japan over the Kuril Islands, the two sides have still not officially signed a peace treaty despite having diplomatic relations. Similarly, Russia-Ukraine relations may face the same fate after the war.
The previous round of direct negotiations between the two sides took place in the early days of the war in 2022 but was abandoned without results. The recent talks met a similar fate, with the only official achievement being the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side, which was significant from a humanitarian perspective.
Currently, the four leading actors in this war—Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, and the United States—are each pursuing their own desires and interests. Since November 2023 and Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive, Russia’s war machine has resumed its offensive operations, gaining the upper hand on the battlefield and capturing more territory each day. The Kremlin’s most important demand is the annexation of Crimea and the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, along with their recognition as Russian territory. It should be noted that parts of these regions are still under Ukrainian control, and Russia has not fully captured them. Ukraine, however, considers accepting the loss of its territory as the biggest red line in reaching an agreement. Russia has threatened that if the war drags on, it will seize even more Ukrainian territory beyond these regions.
Another demand from Moscow is the swift holding of elections in Ukraine. Since May 2024, President Zelensky’s term has officially ended, but due to wartime conditions, Ukraine has not held new presidential elections, and Zelensky’s government remains in power. The Kremlin considers the current government illegitimate, deems any agreement with it unstable, and insists on making peace with a new government that comes to power after elections.
However, Ukraine’s primary demand in this round of talks was a 30-day temporary ceasefire, which Russia rejected. The Russian side claims that if such a ceasefire were established, Ukraine would use the opportunity to import weapons and restore its military capabilities, making the ceasefire unhelpful in achieving peace.
Before coming to power, Trump claimed that he would end the Ukraine war in the early days of his administration—a promise he has so far failed to fulfill. In this round of negotiations, the United States made every effort to secure a 30-day ceasefire, but Russia did not accept it. After the talks failed and following his recent phone call with Putin, Trump called for the U.S. to withdraw from the negotiation process, urging the parties to reach an agreement on their own.
Meanwhile, Brussels, observing the declining U.S. involvement in supporting Ukraine and cooperating with Europe, seeks to adopt an independent policy for the Union’s security, viewing the Ukraine war as a significant test. The EU sees Ukraine’s complete defeat in this war as undermining its own deterrence (in the absence of the United States) against Russia. It has imposed a new wave of sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting its shadow fleet, and is pushing to send new packages of military and economic aid to Ukraine.
Under these circumstances, it seems that as long as Russia remains confident in its battlefield superiority, an end to the Ukraine war at the negotiating table, at least in the near future, remains unlikely.
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