Normalization Vs Resistance: Regional Divisions Over War On Gaza And Lebanon

Omar Ahmed

The response of regional states to the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the extension of conflict to Lebanon has been notably fractured along the lines between those states that have normalized relations with the zionist regime, and those who are aligned with or have factions within the Axis of Resistance.

While public opinion across the region largely sympathizes with the Palestinian cause, governmental stances reveal a complex interplay of regional alliances, realpolitik, and an emphasis on internal stability.

The stances of key regional players, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Jordan, and the UAE, reflect this spectrum of motivations. Meanwhile tensions continue to ferment between Iran, its allies, and the colonial occupation state and its US-backer.

Such divisions pre-date the launch of the resistance operation Al-Aqsa Flood a year ago, having been cemented with the signing of the 2020 Abraham Accords. These accords saw the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco normalize relations with Tel Aviv. They joined long-standing Arab states with ties to Israel—Egypt and Jordan—paving the way for a possible warming of ties between Saudi Arabia and the zionist colonial entity.

Egypt, a country whose geographic proximity to Gaza grants it a unique and pivotal role, has been attempting to balance between humanitarian responsibilities and maintaining its own security interests. Egypt’s position is heavily coloured by its historical role as a mediator in past Palestinian-Israeli conflicts.

Falling short of any concrete action, Cairo has condemned the ongoing military aggression and called for an immediate ceasefire, while opening the Rafah crossing on multiple occasions to allow the passage of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

However, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has also expressed concerns over the spill-over of instability into Egypt. The regime insists that the war must not result in a mass displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, as this could create prolonged demographic and security issues.

While el-Sisi has emphasized that Gaza must remain Palestinian, this position leaves Palestinians completely vulnerable and renders Egypt complicit, particularly given its inability to assert itself over disputes with Israel regarding troops along the Gaza-Egypt border.

Saudi Arabia’s official stance has been largely vocal in its condemnation of the Israeli actions in Gaza, calling for an immediate halt to what it terms as acts of aggression and a respect for international humanitarian laws.

Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia is caught in a balancing act, as the escalation complicates its ambitions for rapprochement with Israel. The war undermines Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to bolster economic and security cooperation with Tel Aviv, a key feature of his broader Vision 2030 ambitions.

While popular sentiment within Saudi Arabia remains fervently pro-Palestinian, the government’s response has been careful, seeking to avoid any action that could jeopardize potential normalization or escalate tensions with Washington.

Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have also condemned Israel’s aggression on Lebanon, following the launch of its already ill-fated ground invasion into the south against Hizbullah.

Riyadh’s current position, in the context of its resumption of relations with Iran last year, marks a notable departure from its stance during the 2006 war, when it blamed and condemned Hibzullah for the conflict and “supported” Israel.

Turkiye, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has adopted far more vocal and aggressive rhetoric in speaking in support of the Palestinians. Ankara has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide” and has called upon the international community to intervene urgently. Nevertheless, the genocide hasn’t impacted political or economic relations, with exports still reaching Israel via Palestinian Authority customs.

Jordan finds itself in the most precarious position, as the war in Gaza directly impacts its domestic stability. Home to a large Palestinian population, Jordan has been vociferous in its condemnation of Israeli airstrikes and has called for an immediate ceasefire.

Amman is particularly sensitive to any scenario that could lead to a new wave of Palestinian refugees with escalations in the West Bank, which would put immense pressure on its already strained resources.

Jordan’s position reflects a careful diplomatic manoeuvre—criticizing Israeli policies while maintaining security cooperation, given the strategic importance of its ‘peace’ treaty with Israel and the dependence on US economic support.

The kingdom’s dual role in intercepting drones and missiles fired by Iran against Israel, while reportedly allowing Israeli airspace use to launch attacks against the region’s Resistance Axis, demonstrates where its loyalties lie.

The UAE has condemned the violence in Gaza and has called for de-escalation, yet its response has been relatively muted compared to Turkiye or even Jordan. The Emirati leadership is keen not to unravel the diplomatic and economic “gains” achieved through normalization.

Abu Dhabi’s stance on Lebanon has similarly been cautious, calling for restraint while avoiding any strong alignment that could antagonize Israel or the US. It has also been telling that the UAE along with Bahrain did not condemn the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, but expressed concern about a possible regional escalation.

The ongoing war in Gaza and its spill-over into Lebanon has laid bare the divisions among regional states, revealing a fragmented response driven by differing national interests, geopolitical alliances, and domestic pressures.

While popular sentiment across the Arab and Muslim worlds has overwhelmingly sided with the Palestinians, official responses have varied significantly—ranging from vocal condemnation and calls for action to more muted, pragmatic approaches.

Ultimately, the regional response to the Gaza genocide and the war on Lebanon reveals the complexities of West Asian geopolitics, where public sentiment, historical ties, and modern strategic interests often clash.

At the time of writing, initial reports suggest that the US and Israel have launched coordinated strikes against key Resistance Axis countries, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Prior to this, Yemen has also been attacked by the UK and US over its active armed support for the Palestinian resistance.

These actions further illustrate the clear dividing line in the region, showing that only those truly supporting the Palestinian cause are willing to face such risks.

Palestine