Sahar Zahran in Washington DC
When Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will receive a heavy legacy of challenges sown during his first term and be confronted by an increasingly turbulent and complex Middle East.
The region, always a strategic focal point for the United States, is in the throes of intensifying turmoil, threatening Washington’s interests amid relentless conflicts, unconventional alliances, and growing international interventions from powers like Russia and China.
Trump finds himself in a delicate position as tensions among regional powers rise. The situation resembles a complex chessboard where roles overlap and interests collide, with both regional and global actors aiming to bolster their influence at Washington’s expense.
Trump’s first term began with controversial decisions, most notably the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital — actions that intensified regional conflicts and complicated relations between the US and its traditional allies.
Although these policies achieved some tactical goals, they also fostered new alliances, notably among Iran, Russia, and China, which now pose a fresh threat to US interests.
These unconventional partnerships reflect a strategic shift in the balance of power, as regional players seek to hedge their relationships with major powers to better serve their interests and counterbalance American policies.
Today, as Trump potentially embarks on a second term, he faces multi-front challenges in the Middle East, particularly the Iranian nuclear issue.
The “maximum pressure” campaign has not curbed Tehran but rather led to further escalation, with Iran expanding its influence across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen as part of a calculated strategy to position itself as a pivotal regional power.
As tensions between Washington and Tehran mount, the US finds itself in a precarious situation, forced to navigate between military escalation and devising alternative strategies to contain Iran’s influence without triggering a full-blown confrontation.
Meanwhile, other unresolved issues remain a thorn in Trump’s Middle East strategy, notably Arab-Israeli normalization, which he promoted as a united front against Iran.
Despite forging agreements with certain Arab nations, this coalition remains fragile. It is challenged by internal divisions within Gulf states and a populace often resistant to normalization, viewing it as a betrayal of core issues.
This increases the likelihood of popular protests that could disrupt these states’ stability and reshape their regional alliances.
In Syria and Yemen, the crises remain dire and complex. The Syrian war, a continuous drain on regional and international resources, now epitomizes the intersection of US interests with those of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, highlighting a web of conflicting roles and clashing interests in a protracted struggle.
In Yemen, the US faces the challenge of supporting traditional allies amid rising international pressure to end a war that has caused an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The Trump administration will need to balance preserving alliances while addressing domestic and international demands to resolve the conflict.
As Trump attempts to recalibrate American policy in the Middle East, global economic challenges add another layer of complexity. The economic crises facing several regional states, notably Lebanon, pose a stability threat, creating fertile ground for armed groups and foreign interventions.
Lebanon's economic collapse, for instance, has sparked widespread unrest and left a security void Washington cannot ignore, particularly given Hezbollah's growing influence, backed by Iran.
This fraught scenario places the US administration between a rock and a hard place: either to support the Lebanese state despite Hezbollah’s presence or leave the field to escalating security tensions that could impact the entire region.
One of Trump’s primary challenges will be balancing America’s traditional commitments to its allies and growing domestic demands to reduce foreign involvement. US voices calling for reallocating resources to address internal needs and curtail military spending abroad are growing stronger amid economic and social crises.
These calls complicate Trump’s ability to pursue long-term Middle East policies without facing internal pressures that increasingly oppose costly foreign interventions.
According to Dennis Ross, a political advisor to former President Obama, Trump’s next administration is likely to adopt a more stringent policy toward Iran. This is driven by Trump’s conviction that economic pressure is a potent tool for political change.
Ross anticipates this approach will manifest in intensified sanctions, aimed not at regime change but at pressing Iran to curtail its nuclear programme.
He also expects Trump to expand the "Abraham Accords," viewing these agreements as a strategic milestone for advancing regional peace.
Ross highlighted Trump’s strong relationships with influential Middle Eastern leaders, such as Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, Saudi King Salman, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He emphasized that these relationships will be especially crucial in a post-Hamas Gaza, where they could play a vital role in reconstruction and shaping Gaza’s future in a way that limits Hamas’ control.
Moreover, he believes Trump is determined to bring peace to the region, a goal that will require a blend of robust American presence and close collaboration with US allies.
Regarding Israel, Ross predicts Trump will maintain a strong relationship while also seeking to influence Israel and America’s Arab allies to support regional stability, furthering his vision of an active American role in Middle Eastern peace.
Dr. Ashley Al-Ansari, a Republican Party member, said Trump’s return to the White House could push US-Israeli relations to new levels, particularly in addressing regional challenges.
He anticipates increased coordination between Trump’s administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, especially as both seek to curb Hezbollah’s influence in southern Lebanon.
Al-Ansari noted that the US would continue to provide the necessary intelligence and military support should Israel conduct operations against Hezbollah.
He asserted that such operations would only cease if Hezbollah declared independence from Iran, an unlikely scenario, or if a secret agreement between Hezbollah and Israel was reached, a remote yet possible outcome.
Regarding the normalization agreements brokered under Trump, Al-Ansari pointed out that the “Abraham Accords,” orchestrated by Jared Kushner, have achieved a major breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations.
He sees these agreements as a diplomatic success, despite Palestinian opposition that reflects deep divisions within the Palestinian landscape between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.
Al-Ansari considers this division a major obstacle to comprehensive peace, as Palestinian factions lack the unity required for successful negotiations with Israel.
Regarding US relations with traditional allies, he emphasized that Trump’s return would reinforce strategic partnerships with key Middle Eastern allies, especially Egypt.
He added that the close relationship between Trump and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi will remain a cornerstone of US policy toward the region, with expectations of an early visit from Trump to the Middle East to reinforce bilateral cooperation and reaffirm Washington’s commitment to regional security and stability.
Concerning internal tensions in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, Al-Ansari suggests that Trump’s administration would avoid direct military intervention, opting instead to support allies through indirect means rather than getting entangled in on-the-ground conflicts.
He stressed that Trump prefers a restrained military approach, opposing the deployment of American forces in the Middle East — a stance that aligns with his intent to reduce military involvement abroad.
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