It's America, not 'Israel' who wants a ceasefire

Tom Fowdy 

Source: Al Mayadeen English

We should see ceasefire attempts as a superficial American-imposed effort, rather than a true desire of Netanyahu’s government.

The United States is aggressively attempting to broker a ceasefire in the war on Gaza, and has devoted immense diplomatic activity towards achieving this goal, with Antony Blinken having visited Tel Aviv numerous times. The administration is insisting that such a deal is “close”, with Biden stating, “We are closer than we have ever been" despite the minimal evidence of such. There is, of course, one fundamental flaw in this claim: Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has no desire for such a ceasefire, and it stands contrary to all his goals.

First, it should be understood that the push for a ceasefire is strictly an American goal motivated by domestic political needs. Biden wants to try and freeze the war and kick the can down the road as he seeks to avoid criticism for his unconditional backing of Netanyahu. His strategy is to prevent politically damaging fallout for the Democratic Party in the run-up to the Presidential election. If he can do so, he can claim victory, deflect criticism, and have the issue sidelined for his successor Kamala Harris. America’s need is therefore motivated by optics rather than seriously attempting to change Tel Aviv’s behaviour, which it is unlikely to do under any circumstances.

Secondly, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu sees a ceasefire as political suicide which can usher in the end of his political career. Netanyahu has shaped his war goals around sustaining the backing of the most hardline Zionists in his government, and thus has set the line at the total destruction of Hamas and the subsequent military occupation of the Gaza Strip. To relent to a ceasefire agreement at this stage would thwart his political goals, which are being sustained by resorting to perpetual conflict and escalation. It is for this reason that Netanyahu has sought to escalate with Hezbollah and Iran, which has also allowed him to leverage support from the USA.

Netanyahu thus sees his political survival as contingent on changing the political status quo and has publicly issued promises to this end. Aiming to completely end the “two-state solution”, he wants to bring the Gaza Strip under the same regime as the West Bank, whereby it becomes an occupied territory under illegal, but de-facto military control, and thus dispossessed of any real sovereignty. Herein, he will utilise “salami slicing” strategies to gradually increase illegal settlement building in the territory and gradually squeeze out and displace the local population over a long-term basis.

In order to lay the grounds for this future trajectory, he must continually claim that "Israel" is under existential threat by its enemies, which allows him to sideline both his domestic and international critics. Thus, his goal has been to escalate and exacerbate the conflict, rather than seek its resolution. Although the US diplomatic effort is trying to restrain him, seeking primarily to avoid an all-out regional war, This allows Netanyahu to manipulate the situation to his advantage, thereby compelling a tacit acceptance of his objectives and altering the status quo. This has been evident through his deliberate efforts to provoke Iran, which are designed to provoke retaliations and force the US into the position of being obligated to protect Tel-Aviv, shutting down those opposed to him.

Thus, while the US is engaging to try and prevent this worst-case scenario, Netanyahu has little appetite for a ceasefire. For him, to agree to such a solution would constitute working towards peace and thus affirm a return to the previous status quo in a compromise with other parties. Netanyahu’s office has repeatedly made it clear, even amidst these talks, that all of his political goals will be achieved regardless. As included in a recent CNN report, “The Prime Minister has strongly insisted on this fundamental demand, which is vital to achieving the goals of the war,” a statement from his office said Sunday. “The Prime Minister will continue to work on advancing a deal that will maximize the number of living hostages and which will enable the achieving of all of the war objectives.”

Therefore, we should see ceasefire attempts as a superficial American-imposed effort, rather than a true desire of Netanyahu’s government. The US wants damage control, but Netanyahu wants conflict because it is in his political interest to do so in view of changing the status quo. In this case, such talks can scarcely be called optimistic. Netanyahu wants and seeks victory on his own terms, not compromise.