Crescent International
In an analytical article on Iran-China relations published by a pro-Israel think-tank, researcher Yang Xiantong admits that “the revolutionary era slogan of ‘neither east nor west’ stands true to this day.
“Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy does not mean replacing American hegemony with Chinese hegemony. Given that Beijing has little to offer, should Beijing ever decide to exert too much pressure on Tehran, it could quickly backfire.”
Xiantong’s analysis looks at limited leverages China has over Islamic Iran due to a complex web of economic and political mechanisms Tehran uses in trading with China.
Assessment of Iran’s relations with China is an important area of study for zionist Israel, as trade with China allows Tehran to limit the impact of western economic war waged through sanctions and sabotage.
In theory, Israel’s incentive for China to distance itself from Iran would be the widespread zionist influence over western ruling elites.
By cultivating good relations with Israel, Beijing could theoretically gain access to the zionist lobby’s influence in Washington and beyond.
At a superficial level this Israeli incentive sounds plausible but when analyzed a little deeper, it is a nonstarter.
The declining power of western regimes and America’s strategic animosity towards China reduces the Israeli incentive for China significantly.
Combined with the fact that Israel itself has entered a permanent state of instability, the zionist entity is no longer an attractive partner for China.
The Chinese political caste is known for its pragmatic transactional approach to geopolitical issues.
If viewed as too close to Israel, China risks upsetting many Muslim countries.
That in turn would endanger economic opportunities for China.
In addition to the above, Xiantong’s analysis fails to consider the degree to which China needs Iran and cannot afford to undermine its relations with Tehran.
Beijing understands that as an empire in decline, the US will fight viciously to keep China down and attempt to retain its primacy in the post-western global order.
Washington’s animosity towards China is strategic and its ruling caste cannot fathom a global order where the US must treat others as equal state entities with their own special geopolitical and economic interests.
This has created a situation where the Chinese leadership understands that by siding with Israel, Beijing would be weakening an ideologically motivated opponent of American imperialism.
Inadvertently, China would thus weaken itself against the US.
Although China has not asserted its interests in West Asia beyond diplomatic steps and limited economic contributions, its regional participation still plays an important balancing role against US imperialism.
Beijing is unlikely to dramatically increase its role in West Asia as it does not understand the region well and views it as a potential geopolitical quagmire which it would rather keep at a distance.
China’s reluctance to dramatically increase its role in West Asia is beneficial to the region in the long run.
It will enable regional powers to gain time, space and maneuverability, and become a power center themselves in a new multipolar global order.
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