Strategic Council Online—Interview: An expert on Asian issues considered the tripartite meeting in Islamabad regarding Afghanistan as another Chinese initiative to establish peace and stability in the region by using economic tools, adding that this meeting arose from the security concerns of Pakistan and China concerning the realization of their political and economic interests in Afghanistan.
Behrooz Ayaz told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations that the fifth tripartite meeting of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan was held on May 16, hosted by Islamabad, while a few days before, the United Nations had held a two-day meeting on Afghanistan in Doha.
He added that although the Taliban had not been invited to the Doha meeting, in the recent meeting, Pakistan officially and directly invited Amir Khan Motaghi, the foreign minister of the Taliban, to address the issue of peace, security, and stability in Afghanistan in this tripartite meeting.
He said that the Islamabad meeting was in line with the security concerns related to Afghanistan and the issues raised in the Doha meeting, which shows the importance of Afghanistan’s situation and developments for Beijing and Islamabad.
This analyst of Asian issues reminded that after almost two years since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, China and Pakistan have paid the most attention to this country to pursue their interests because the developments in Afghanistan have had many effects on its neighbors. Considering that Afghanistan has spent more than four decades in instability and insecurity after the Taliban came to power in this country, the neighboring countries have used active diplomacy in establishing some relationships with this country.
Stating that the meeting in Islamabad arose from the security concerns of Pakistan and China regarding the realization of their political and economic interests in Afghanistan, Ayaz continued that what has made Pakistan more insecure these days than before is the movements of the “Tehrik-e Taliban” group, which currently, Afghanistan has become a safe haven for them. The victory of the Afghan Taliban as a model has made them more hopeful about the cause of Jihad for the autonomy of the tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The peak of these conflicts occurred in late April 1401 between the Tehrik-e Taliban and the Pakistani army.
He pointed to China’s positions and expressed concerns in this regard in the past months and added that this issue has also worried China; Because the “Tehrik-e Taliban” group, along with the “Azadi Bakhsh Baloch” army, have carried out targeted attacks against China’s economic projects in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan. In addition, the closeness of the Uyghur Muslims of Xinjiang province and the “Islamic Party of Uyghuristan” to the Taliban and some of them joining Daesh in Khorasan has increased China’s security concerns.
While referring to the final statement of the tripartite meeting in Islamabad, which emphasized economic cooperation with the Taliban government and mentioned the agreement to include Afghanistan in the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, this expert on Asian issues emphasized that unlike Pakistan, which is concerned about political security, China itself has security concerns regarding its economic plans. The realization of the recent 10-billion-dollar contract between the Chinese company “Gochin” and the Taliban to extract lithium reserves in Afghanistan, the total reserves estimated to be around one trillion dollars, requires stability and security in Afghanistan.
Ayaz also considered this tripartite meeting to convey the message of the two-day Doha meeting to the Taliban and added that China and Pakistan, by conveying the message of Doha regarding the necessity of forming an inclusive government, the right to education for girls and establishing stability in Afghanistan as a precondition for recognition, demanded the immediate decision of the Taliban in this regard. Although the Taliban does not have the will to set up an inclusive government, it will make the most of the other two conditions to gain international legitimacy. Perhaps denying girls from education by the Taliban and exaggerating the spread of terrorism in Afghanistan by Pakistan have been the two levers of the Taliban for recognition.
This analyst of Asian issues, while referring to the expression of the Chinese Foreign Minister’s readiness to support Kabul in economic reconstruction, stated that what is essential for Beijing and Islamabad in this regard is the establishment of security in Afghanistan, and it seems that these two countries consider security and stability and not human rights issues and restrictions on girls’ education as an essential precondition for recognizing the Taliban. Therefore, this tripartite meeting has also been a kind of guarantee of Pakistan and Afghanistan security for Beijing; Because some of the most important Chinese economic projects in Pakistan have also been stopped due to security reasons, and China does not want this to happen again in Afghanistan.
According to Ayaz, conversely, by conveying the message of Doha, the two countries have tried to convince the Taliban to establish security and inclusive government as a precondition for its recognition. Amir Khan Motaghi’s statement that no terrorist group is currently active in Afghanistan can also be evaluated.
Referring to China’s recent roles in international developments and efforts to resolve some cases and disputes, he emphasized that the Islamabad meeting can be considered another initiative of China to establish peace and stability in the region using economic tools. China is pursuing its desired order through “economic diplomacy” based on the “global security” initiative document.
This analyst of Asian issues stated that by holding these three meetings, Beijing is seeking to establish a “Chinese order” in the region to realize its grand plan, “One Belt One Road Initiative,” which is pursued with an “economy-oriented strategy” to create stability and security.
He added that considering the manner of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and its consequences, establishing stability in Afghanistan through an inclusive government and the implementation of economic plans can be another winning card in China’s diplomacy. This can lead to more acceptance of the Chinese order by the countries of the region and the world, which is opposed to the liberal order.
Ayaz emphasized that the Afghanistan issue is an essential test for China, the success of which will increase China’s popularity in the world. However, due to the complexity of Afghanistan’s political and economic problems, this will not be easily achieved and cannot be looked at with much optimism.
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