Having stated that in view of the nature of gas crisis and Europe’s effort to diversify the energy suppliers it needs, Ebrahim Bagheri in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, spelled out that one cannot cast a black and white look at Europe’s gas crises whether Europe will surely win or fail, because Europe was not successful in diversifying its energy imports. About 40% of its required gas and 25% of its required oil used to supply by Russia. That’s why it will be under tremendous pressure in short term and finding alternative suppliers for this great volume of dependence in short term will be very difficult which will be coupled with numerous political, social, economic and foundational consequences”.
Driving a kind of Polarization among Northern & Southern European Countries
Having stated that Europe’s gas crisis will be detrimental to Russia in long term because 85% of Russian gas production is exported to Europe, he added:” reduction of supply coincided with rising gas prices in Europe has created a kind of polarization among Northern and Southern European countries. Countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece protest against the demands on increasing of savings in gas consumption to 15%. They say why they should be sacrificed to Germany’s ambitions that has depended the continent on Russian gas, and they oppose whatever decision taken by European Commission for reduction of consumption and energy austerity”.
The expert of European issues said:” Northern European countries believe that we can pass through this stage if we observe the recommendations of European bodies and maintain our unity. Having mentioned the similar experiences of financial and immigration crises as well as successful experience to overcome Coronavirus, they believe that they can leave behind the gas crisis of Winter 2022 with the collaboration of Southern and Eastern European countries”.
Having said that most of American and European energy think – tanks believe that they are going to have a difficult winter ahead, he continued:” gas crisis of Winter 2022 resembles Euro crisis of 2010s and immigration crisis of 2015 which strongly destabilized the EU integration and unprecedentedly drove a yawning gap among different countries and regions of Europe”.
Having stressed that energy crisis is not merely an economic crisis and thus it has numerous consequences, he added:” increase of inflation rate to 10%, economic recession, reduction of economic growth rate, rising unemployment, rising prices of fuel and food are among economic consequences predicted for Europe. Yet, it will not be the only consequence of Europe gas crisis. Foreign Policy deals with the issue in its report; in case Europe will be unable to increase its required gas reservoirs before the winter starts (October and November) to 80% of the minimum required for Europe to pass the gas crisis of 2022, a part of its population may probably have to choose either getting warm or having food. This will lead to intensification of unrests, protests, and strikes throughout the continent, because families will face increasing living costs and inflationary pressures. Some of these dissatisfactions have already incurred losses upon energy market. For example, in Norway, as the second largest supplier of natural gas to the EU followed by Russia, widespread strikes during the last few weeks in oil and gas industries made companies stop their production that caused a comprehensive shock all over Europe”.
While referring to the foundational consequences of energy crisis on the European unity, the analyst of European issues noted that:” as we approach the winter, the polarization already established among European countries will be further intensified. For example, Hungry, Germany, Italy and France believe that the security concerns of Russia on Ukraine should be duly dealt with. With showing flexibility on the issue, at least a part of Russian gas to Europe should continue to flow until new markets are found and new installations, facilities and infrastructures are build. But, many of Eastern European countries that are strongly in security impasse, as well as some of Balkan countries plus the UK support the serious dealing with Russia and blanket support to Ukraine”.
Bagheri added:” some of European countries try not to instigate Russia by showing flexibility on Ukraine issue. The reason; now 55% of gas tanks and reservoirs of Europe are filled
(the percentage is far less for some European countries like the Netherlands and Denmark). While it is believed that if by November the amount will not reach to 80%. i.e. the minimum required for Europe during Winter, the (green) continent will face problem. However, Europe has made the purchase of its liquid gas from the U.S. three times more than before, and has lobbied with other countries to increase its gas reservoirs, which can calm down the severity of the crisis to some extent”.
Far Right Parties Gain Power in Europe
Bagheri pointed out to the possibility of gaining power by far right in Europe that calls for détente with Russia and said:” we witnessed the fall of three governments of European countries within the last three months. Although Ukraine and gas crises were not the main reasons but having seized the opportunity of protests and dissatisfactions caused after gas crisis, rising inflation and gas prices, far right parties may probably offer interesting alternatives to European citizens which give them an upper hand to gain power in the absence of a powerful government. Even there have been predictions supporting the idea that on the eve of the Winter, there will be more governments in Europe that may fall in the light of economic crises and popular protests, and Far Right will seize this opportunity”.
According to the expert of European affairs; if the European Union fails to advance with the mechanism of a single European market to fairly distribute gas and control the prices, European unity and the EU institution will severely suffer from numerous blows. Economically, this will be a prestigious issue for Europe. Politically and institutionally, the EU has been subjected to an acid test”.