The End of the American century

David Hearst

From the end of Pax Americana to the complexities of the post-post-Cold war era, to rehabilitating MBS, and starving Afghanistan, while France grapples with big questions, and Palestine continues to resist: 2022 promises to be an eventful year (Illustration by MEE)

As 2021 drew to a close, the chance of a global conflict involving real armies and real arms has never been higher and the tripwire to using weapons of mass destruction has never been strung tighter. Nor have all the world’s military powers been better armed, able, and willing to start their own inventions.

US President Joe Biden should bear this in mind. Washington would do well to look at the map of the world and think before it makes its next move. A long period of reflection is needed. Thus far it has obtained the dubious distinction of getting every conflict it has engaged in this century wrong. 

After the damage done this century by conflicts ordered, created and backed by US presidents  - Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya - the US should get on with the urgent task of deconfliction

It is now in the United States' strategic interest to staunch any more bloodletting in the battlefields it created this century. That means the US should come to a deal with Iran by lifting the sanctions it has imposed on Tehran since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

If it wants to balance the growing Chinese and Russian influence in the Middle East, that is the surest way to do it.

Iran is not going to give up its missiles any more than Israel is going to ground its airforce. But a deal in Vienna could be a precursor to regional Gulf security negotiations. The Emiratis, Qataris, Omanis, and Kuwaitis are all ready for it. If Washington wants to apply rules, let it do so first with its allies who have so far enjoyed extraordinary impunity for their brutal actions.

If Washington is the champion of human rights it claims to be, start with Saudi Arabia or Egypt. If it is the enforcer of international law, let’s see Washington make Israel pay a price for its continued settlement policy, which makes a mockery of UN security council resolutions, and its own policy for a resolution to the Palestinian conflict. 

Israel acts with a ruthless logic. It will use any opportunity to expand its borders until a Palestinian state becomes an impossibility. It probably has already succeeded in that aim.

However, this is not US policy. But this expansion continues, almost week in, week out, because no one in Washington will lift a finger to stop it. Doing nothing about armed lynch mobs of settlers attacking unarmed Palestinian villagers in the West Bank is the same as agreeing with them. 

If you want to be a champion of rules, apply those rules to yourself first.

This is the only way to regain lost global authority. The US has entered a new era where it can no longer change regimes by force of arms or sanctions. It has discovered the uselessness of force. It should drop the stick and start handing out bucket loads of carrots. It should get on with the urgent task of deconfliction. After the damage done this century by conflicts ordered, created, and backed by US presidents - Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya - that is not only a responsibility but a duty. 

Another US strategic mistake would be its, and Western Europe's, last.