Can MBS turn the page for Saudi Arabia in 2022?

Madawi Al-Rasheed

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during an interview in Riyadh in June, 2021 (AFP)

In 2022, all of Saudi Arabia's international allies will encounter questions in their own countries should they attempt to fully turn the page on the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's earlier intrigues and crimes. MBS may struggle to return Saudi Arabia to its previous glory when it was the first nation to which the international community turned to solve the many problems confronting the Arab world. 

Mohammed bin Salman could sit and wait in Riyadh for the next US election, which may bring a friendlier president to the White House

The crown prince in Riyadh can count on both Russia and China to help rehabilitate him on the international scene - but they are no alternative to the old US-Saudi alliance.

Russia’s interest in Riyadh centres on oil and a growing, but minor, arms trade that cannot replace Washington’s role. Equally, China welcomes greater economic opportunities in Saudi Arabia, but it remains aloof politically and culturally. 

MBS cannot suddenly pivot to the east, for many reasons. His military arsenal is western-based, and he still longs for a restoration of his country’s relations with the US that defined the Trump era. He could sit and wait in Riyadh for the next US election, which may bring a friendlier president to the White House.

MBS could also turn his attention to Britain and Europe, both of which are opportunistic and willing to accommodate the crown prince without allowing his abysmal human rights record to derail future arms deals. Britain maintains close ties with Riyadh, and the current conservative government is not willing to undermine future opportunities in the name of upholding human rights. Britain will remain the second-largest supplier of arms to Saudi Arabia, as it has always been. 

So, it seems the crown prince will continue to be a persona non grata in Washington, or in any other international platform where the US has taken the lead.

MBS failed to turn up at recent G20 and COP26 meetings because he wasn’t guaranteed a handshake or photo opportunity next to Biden and other world leaders. The Saudi crown prince was also not granted the honour of helping the US during the summer crisis in Afghanistan, as its military forces withdrew.

However, this does not necessarily mean MBS will be snubbed forever.

The US continues to initiate selective engagement with Saudi Arabia and as 2021 came to a close, the US wants to ensure that Saudi oil continues to flow in abundant quantity, lest oil prices continue to rise, thus undermining western economic recovery after two years of disruption fuelled by Covid-19 and low energy demands.