Israeli Politics Caught in Election Abyss: Scenarios Ahead

Alwaght- The fourth Israeli general election in less than two years, which was actually a referendum on how legitimate and popular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is, failed to end the crisis and political stalemate in the occupied territories. 

With the rivals failing to win a majority to form a new cabinet and the settlers disappointed with seeing a political stability after two years of political volatility, a fifth vote may be awaiting before the end the year. 

In this round of elections, Netanyahu tried to extend his term as PM and save his political life by highlighting as personal gains measures such as the general coronavirus vaccination and the normalization of relations with some Arab countries. However his critics, who are large in numbers, assessed his performance in containing the Covid-19 outbreak weak and lashed out at him for not stepping down after court indictment for his corruption on January 28 last year. 

The Israeli Elections Committee announced that with 100 percent of the votes counted, right-wing parties, including Likud and its traditional allies, won 52 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, and a set of parties committed to forcing Netanyahu out of the power won 57 seats. They are, in terms of orientation, adopt a range of ideas. 

Party leaders have already begun talks that are expected to continue for weeks. If a coalition fails to generate a majority with at least 61 seats, then Tel Aviv should go to a fifth election. 

Several scenarios can be thought of. Here they are: 

Crisis in Likud; consensus over a replacement to Netanyahu 

One scenario is maintaining of power by Likud and the right-wing front. The party remains the largest party of the Knesset with 30 seats. It can garner a total of 57 seats should it coelsce with parties endorsing Netanyahu for the PM post. But the Likud leaders' consideration of Netanyahu replacement is a serious matter, to make cohesive the right-wing camp and avoid fragmentations as Netanyahu increasingly turns into a devisive figure. The Israeli Channel 12 reported that senior members of Likud had agreed to remain silent and do what Netanyahu said so that he could bring the party to power. But this is the fourth vote and the party failed in all four elections to secure majority and Tel Aviv again goes to an interim cabinet. 

Giddeon Sa'ar, a defected Likud member and Netanyahu challenger who run with his own party and secured 6 seats in recent elections, said it is clear Netanyahu does not have the majority to form a new government under his leadership and so actions now must be taken for the possibility of a government formation for a change. 

Also, several opponents of Netanyahu have also begun debating a bill to disqualify from government formation a politician who is under indictment— a move aimed at barring Netanyahu from serving as PM again. A similar motion was previously proposed in March 2020, but was not approved.

Divisions scale and the game-changing weight of Arab lawmakers; historical anti-Netanyahu coalition 

One of the most important and determining components in the recent elections is the decisive position of the Arab members of parliament , who, although have faced a significant vote decline compared to the past times, their joining any coalition can greatly increase the chance of forming a government on either side. 

Internal divisions and declining voter turnout led to a drop in the number of seats on the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas. As a result, the list ended up with only 6 seats, down from the 15 seats. The Arabs in the Israeli politics have never joined a coalition government. Worried about them joining forces with the opposition, Netanyahu’s party described any potential bloc of them "undemocratic." 

The bloc would include the second largest party in the Knesset Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid with 17 seats. There are a large number of other parties on the right, left and center in the bloc, each with 6 to 8 seats, making a total of 57 seats. 

The United Arab List can now potentially determine the next cabinet. Factors increasing the chances of forming such an unprecedented coalition include the Arab fear of the continuation of premiership of Netanyahu who has promised to annex the West Bank settlements, and also the focus of a majority of Israeli parties on home affairs like crime, violence, and the economic crisis. 

If limbo continues, fifth election possible 

After several rounds of elections, now it is glaringly apparent that the Israeli election system is too flawed innately to solve the political impasse. These fundamental flaws are even deteriorated by "Netanyahu factor." 

Totally, 13 parties— including the orthodox, Arab, secular, nationalist, and liberal parties— have won enough votes to enter the Knesset. This is the largest since 2003 elections and makes coalition a must to form a new cabinet. 

In the meantime, however, none of the other party leaders is seen as a well-known and universally agreed-upon rival to knock Netanyahu out of the game. Likud opposition parties face deep divisions in ideology and internal politics. 

For example, Naftali Bennett, the leader of Yamina nationalist-religious party, has ruled out alliance with Lapid as a moderate politician to form a anti-Netanyahu bloc despite opposing the latter's stay in power. 

Therefore, should Netanyahu press for power holding and reject stepping down, the likliest situation would be continuation of the crisis on the Israeli political stage. The corollary would be a fifth election.