Fakhrizadeh killing: How Biden can avoid traps laid by opponents of the Iran nuclear deal

 Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Biden needs to revive the JCPOA, remove Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from the US terror list, and lift the sanctions against Iran’s high officials

Iranian students burn posters depicting US President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden to protest the killing of prominent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 28 November (AFP)

Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated last week. Three unidentified American officials told the New York Times that Israel was behind Fakhrizadeh's assassination during an ambush near Iran’s capital, Tehran.

Just a few days prior to the assassination, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a secret nighttime rendezvous in the middle of the Arabian desert to push for covert operations and tightening of economic sanctions during President Donald Trump’s final weeks in office, the Israeli sources revealed.  

Second to the assassination of Major-General Qassem Soleimani last January, this latest killing is the most grotesque and inhumane use of violence against Iranian officials in the post-JCPOA era. Not only was Fakhrizadeh a major nuclear scientist, but he also played a crucial role in developing domestic Covid-19 test kits and vaccines to help the country deal with the pandemic. In the years before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, Israel engaged in gruesome acts of terror, assassinating five Iranian nuclear scientists who are now Iran’s revered martyrs. Those included: Ardeshir Hosseinpour, Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad, and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. Israel also attempted to assassinate Fereydon Abbassi, Iran’s head of the Atomic Agency, but it failed.

A realistic view

The timing of this assassination is not coincidental. US President-elect Joe Biden has announced that his administration would return to the JCPOA. "I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations," Biden stated. The goal of the attack was to stymie this policy.

Equally importantly, Iranian President Hasan Rouhani said that solving the problems between Iran and the US "will be very easy" if the Biden administration makes efforts to return to the situation that existed prior to 20 January 2017, when Trump was sworn in as the new US president. Rouhani added that "Iran's policy has been to meet obligations with obligations, actions with actions and de-escalation with de-escalation."

Fakhrizadeh's assassination was aimed at blocking Biden's intention of offering Iran 'a credible path back to diplomacy'

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, however, has taken a different position: "by negotiating for a few years, we tried but to no use". This statement clearly demonstrates that the supreme leader is extremely suspicious that negotiations will ever bode well for Iran. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and crimes such as the assassination of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh are further testament that the supreme leader’s views on this matter are more realistic than those of Rouhani.

While both the United States and Iran face tremendous domestic obstacles in reviving the JCPOA, the "return to Iran deal" policy as proposed by Biden has terrified both Netanyahu and MBS to the effect that they had to get together in an unprecedented meeting in Saudi Arabia. To be sure, they have done what they could and will continue to do so to prevent the Biden administration from re-joining the JCPOA.

A framed painting depicting Iran's assassinated top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during his funeral procession in the northeastern city of Mashhad on 29 November (AFP)

Fakhrizadeh's assassination was aimed at blocking Biden's stated intention of offering Iran "a credible path back to diplomacy" as a step toward the United States rejoining the nuclear accord.

Iranian political scene

It seems that Biden views the return to the JCPOA as a prelude to the broader process of negotiations with Iran on other issues such as ballistic missile capability and its role in the region. But Biden must pay attention to the realities of the Iranian political scene.

In the 2020 parliamentary elections, the Principalists (conservative) faction achieved an unprecedented victory by winning 221 out of 291 seats in the Iranian parliament. Many reformist candidates were excluded by the Guardian Council. The Trump administration’s ill-advised policy of maximum pressure followed by the imposition of the toughest economic sanctions in modern history has left the Iranian people in the worst economic situation since the 1979 revolution. The upshot was an outright disappointment of the moderate forces with respect to negotiations with the United States.

Hence, it is predictable that the next Iranian president is likely to be from the Principalist faction in the upcoming 2021 election.

While in Tehran, I got a chance to talk to some of the Principalists politicians about the US election. They believe that Republicans and Democrats are both after regime change in Iran; a Democratic administration is more complex and dangerous at the same time because, unlike Trump, it takes a multilateral approach to pressure Iran.

This makes it more challenging to work with such an administration. As a result, they believe Iran should eschew negotiating with the Biden administration on a whole host of issues including the JCPOA, ballistic missiles, regional issues and more. 

The inauguration of the new US president will coincide with the launch of candidates' presidential campaigning for Iran's upcoming election in June. It seems clear that by the time Biden is sworn into office, President Rouhani will be in his final months of office. Expecting his administration to achieve any big deal with respect to US-Iran relations is unrealistic, other than moving to revive the JCPOA.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in Tehran on 9 April (Handout/khamenei.ir/AFP)

For the Rouhani administration, reviving the JCPOA is as important as it is for Biden and his team. Let’s not forget that like Biden, his likely secretary of state Tony Blinken and national security chief Jake Sullivan have been and remain strong supporters of the JCPOA, and even participated in its formation. 

Here, Biden should not lose sight of three key points. 

Suspend the sanctions

First, for the remaining period of the Rouhani administration, the US return to the JCPOA should not be with pre-conditions and contingent on extending it to issues beyond Iran’s nuclear issue. Such an approach will set back the negotiation process to revive the JCPOA, since containing the anti-American feelings among Iranians in the aftermath of the assassination of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh is no easy task. 

Containing the anti-American feelings among Iranians in the aftermath of the assassination of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh is no easy task

Second, the JCPOA should be implemented comprehensively. When the JCPOA was signed, the US primary sanctions hindered its correct implementation and precluded the full delivery of economic benefits to Iran.

Hence, in order for Iran, the US and other world powers to fully comply with the terms and conditions of the JCPOA, the US's primary sanctions should be suspended.

Third, regional issues such as conventional and unconventional arms should be addressed regionally, collectively through a multilateral approach. Saudi Arabia has Chinese-made missiles with a range of up to 5,000 kilometres in addition to a secret nuclear programme. Israel has its Jericho missile with a 5,000-kilometer range that can carry a one-ton nuclear warhead and hundreds of nuclear weapons. Western hue and cry is about the Iranian missiles with a maximum range of 2000 km and a nuclear programme with zero nuclear bombs.

What should Biden do?

It is very likely that Iran’s next president-elect will be from the Principalists faction, which will then have a chance to create a unified government in Iran, given that the parliament is also dominated by the Principalists.

This united government led by Principalists will certainly have more decision-making autonomy because it is more trusted by Iran’s supreme leader. Moreover, the supreme leader is the ultimate decision-maker on foreign policy, and like the US Central Command, the Revolutionary Guard plays a key role on regional issues.

To open doors for engaging with the next Iranian administration on other issues beyond the nuclear question, Biden needs to revive the JCPOA, remove Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organisations, and abolish the sanctions against Iran’s high officials including Iran's supreme leader.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Seyed Hossein Mousavian is Middle East security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University and a former chief of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Relations Committee. His book, “Iran and the United States: An Insider’s view on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace” was released in May 2014. His next book, A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction, is due to be published in April 2020.

EXCLUSIVE: Iran tells MBZ it will hit UAE in response to a US attack

By MEE staff

 Threat given to Mohammed bin Zayed directly, hours before Emirati statement condemning assassination of nuclear scientist

A fighter loyal to Yemen's Houthi movement, an Iranian ally, stands guard next to a mural denouncing Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (R) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (AFP)

Tehran “directly” contacted Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed last weekend, threatening the United Arab Emirates in the event of any US attack on Iran, a top-level UAE source told Middle East Eye.

The Iranians are on high alert following the assassination on Friday of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the architect of Iran’s military nuclear programme, east of Tehran.

Though Fakhrizadeh’s killing has been claimed off the record by Israeli intelligence sources to the New York Times, Iran has feared attacks by the United States too, believing outgoing president Donald Trump could lash out before his term ends on 20 January.

"MBZ received a direct threat from Iran. It was not delivered through proxies," the source said.

According to the source, Iran told Mohammed bin Zayed: "We will hold you responsible for the assassination of Fakhrizadeh."

The UAE, which lies just 70km away from Iran over the Gulf, is a hawkish ally of Trump and recently concluded a normalisation deal with Israel that has already seen close ties built over several sectors, including security.

According to the UAE source, Iran’s personal contact with Mohammed bin Zayed came just hours before an Emirati statement on Sunday evening condemning Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, which the foreign ministry warned could “further fuel conflict in the region”.

“The state of instability our region is currently going through, and the security challenges it faces, drive us all to work towards averting acts that could lead to escalation and eventually threaten the stability of the entire region,” the ministry said.

MEE has asked the UAE embassy in London for comment, with no response by the time of publication.

Growing fears

Meanwhile, Israeli media has reported that Israel’s security officials are worried their nationals could be at risk of reprisals in the UAE.

Since normalisation of ties in September, Israelis have travelled to Abu Dhabi and Dubai for tourism and business purposes.

According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli and Emirati security officials have begun working together to beef up protections for Israelis currently in the UAE.

Iran has vowed to retaliate for Fakhrizadeh’s killing, though Iranian officials told MEE over the weekend that any response will likely be measured and delayed.

Before Friday’s incident, tensions had been at a high in Iran.

MEE reported last week that Esmail Qaani, a top Iranian general, ordered Iran’s proxy paramilitaries in Iraq to avoid targeting the US in any way, due to concern the Trump administration could be provoked into launching a devastating war.

Iran hopes that Joe Biden’s arrival to the White House in January will precipitate an easing of sanctions and return to the 2015 nuclear agreement that Trump unilaterally pulled out of two years ago.

The flagging Iranian rial bounced on the news of Biden’s electoral success, and prices in the country dropped too as a result.

But the threat of further US-Israeli action looms large nonetheless.

On Friday, before Fakhrizadeh was killed, MEE reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to back an attack on Iranian nuclear targets.

A senior Saudi source said the crown prince, who is traditionally hostile to Iran, was reluctant to agree to the request for two reasons.

Firstly, because two recent attacks on Saudi oil targets were perceived as Iranian threats via Iran’s proxies.

Secondly, because an incoming Biden administration would immediately seek to de-escalate.

Saudi Arabia has denied the meeting took place. Israel has refused to comment either way, though the news of Netanyahu’s trip to Saudi Arabia was widely reported in the Hebrew press.

Iran vows revenge against Israel during funeral of slain nuclear scientist

By MEE and agencies

 President Hassan Rouhani accuses Israel of being America's 'mercenary' following the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was given the status of 'martyr', with Tehran saying it would double its efforts to continue its nuclear programme (AFP)

Iran held a state funeral on Monday for nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was assassinated by gunmen on Friday, in an attack that Tehran is blaming on Israel. 

Iran gave the status of "martyr" to Fakhrizadeh, while stating it would double its efforts to continue its nuclear programme. 

Fakhrizadeh died after armed assailants targeted his car and engaged in a gunfight with his bodyguards, according to Iran's defence ministry. 

High-ranking officials, including Defence Minister Amir Hatami and the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, were pictured mourning the slain scientist at the funeral. 

Photos from the funeral showed a picture of Fakhrizadeh next to a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad in January. 

But unlike Soleimani's funeral, which was attended by thousands, Fakhrizadeh's funeral was not open to the public and held in private to respect social distancing rules because of the coronavirus. 

The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Rear-Admiral Ali Shamkhani, said Fakhrizadeh died in a "complex" operation, laying the blame for the attack on Israel. 

Shamkhani claimed the People's Mujahideen of Iran (MEK) opposition group were "certainly" involved, along with the "Zionist regime and the Mossad" intelligence agency in Israel.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also accused Israel of acting as an American "mercenary" in the region and blamed the country for killing Fakhrizadeh. 

Rouhani has emphasised that Iran will seek its revenge for the assassination in "due time" and not be rushed into a "trap".

The nuclear scientist's murder has led to high-ranking Iranian officials urging the government to boycott potential negotiations with the US after President Donald Trump leaves office in January. 

Iran's parliament on Sunday demanded a halt to international inspections of nuclear sites in the country, a step that could prove a fatal blow to the nuclear deal the Islamic Republic agreed with world powers in 2015, and which Trump had pulled out from in 2018.

Russia strongly condemns terrorist attack on Fakhrizadeh

TEHRAN, (MNA) – Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement on Monday condemned the assassination of Iranian prominent nuclear and defense scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

In a statement issued, it is read, “The purpose of this operation is clearly to destabilize the region and to provoke the possibility of regional conflicts.”

“We express our serious concern about the provocative nature of this terrorist act. Anyone who is involved in this operation and has worked to secure his own political interests must be held accountable.”

Although no individual or group has yet been held responsible for the assassination of Martyr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh; there is a consensus that this terrorist act has been prepared in a joint US-Israeli think tank.

Fakhrizadeh was targeted on Friday in a multi-pronged attack involving at least one explosion and small fire by a number of assailants in Absard city of Damavand County, Tehran province.

Envoy urges intl. community to condemn Fakhrizadeh terror

TEHRAN, (MNA) – Iran's Permanent Representative to International Organizations urged the international community to condemn the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist.

In a letter to Ghada Fathy Ismail Waly, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Kazem Gharibabadi urged the international community to condemn the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

He maintained that there is clear evidence that the Zionist regime is involved in the terrorist attack, especially since Israeli officials struggled to assassinate Dr. Fakhrizadeh several times.

According to Gharibabadi, Such a terrorist act, like any other act of international terrorism, poses a threat to international peace and security and is contrary to the fundamental principles of international law.

The envoy underlined that the assassination of Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is a continuation of terrorist acts that began a decade ago with the terror of several Iranian nuclear scientists in 2010, 2011, and 2012, which requires proper attention from the international community.

Gharibabadi noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran strongly condemns the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist and reaffirms its commitment to the fight against terrorism.

Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, was martyred in a terrorist attack on Friday.

Fakhrizadeh-Mahavadi was targeted on Friday in a multi-pronged attack involving at least one explosion and small fire by a number of assailants in Absard city of Damavand County, Tehran province.

Iran denies meeting between martyr Fakhrizadeh, IAEA officials

TEHRAN – Behrooz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), has denied any meeting between nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and the officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“Martyr Fakhrizadeh had not had any meetings or conversations with the former director general of Agency, inspectors or officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency and allegations made in this regard are baseless,” Kamalvandi said on Monday, according to Mehr.

He explained that the IAEA’s inspections are performed on the basis of legal principles accepted in the agreements inked between Iran and the IAEA, and just rules of safeguards or protocols are carried out and there is nothing beyond that.

No unusual inspections have happened nor will happen, Kamalvandi said.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 59, was assassinated on Friday in a terrorist attack involving at least one explosion and small fire by a number of assailants in Absard city of Damavand County, Tehran Province. 

Iranian officials were quick to point the finger at Israel, which has carried out assassination operations against Iranian nuclear scientists over the past decade.

“Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today. This cowardice—with serious indications of Israeli role—shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators. Iran calls on int'l community—and especially the EU—to end their shameful double standards & condemn this act of state terror,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet, hours after the Friday attack.

Several Iranian officials and lawmakers have also called for an end to Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA.

Kamalvandi said if a new decision is taken by the Iranian Parliament and high-ranking officials in this regard, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran will implement it.

Elsewhere in his remarks, he pointed to the dimensions of measures taken by the enemies of the Islamic Republic in various arenas, saying, “The enemies of the country have been defeated by the Islamic Revolution in the field of hard and soft power, and with these inhumane and brutal actions, they are trying to target technology, knowledge and security of our country.”

He added when the Zionists came to the conclusion that they cannot prevent Iran’s nuclear program and technological progress, they resorted to assassinate the country’s nuclear scientist Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had mentioned Fakhrizadeh in a 2018 presentation on the alleged atomic archive of Iran that Israel claims it stole from a warehouse in southern Tehran.

Netanyahu said at the time that he identified Fakhrizadeh as the head scientist in Iran’s nuclear program, and asked people to “remember that name”.

Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, has said the U.S. and Israeli regimes are responsible for the assassination.

“The cowardly assassination of Martyr Fakhrizadeh – with serious indications of Israeli responsibility in it – is another desperate attempt to wreak havoc on our region as well as to disrupt Iran’s scientific and technological development,” Takht Ravanchi wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and President of UN Security Council Inga Rhonda King on Friday.

TAGS

• Behrooz Kamalvandi
 
• Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
 
• IAEA

Intelligence minister: Many clues found about the scientist’s assassination

TEHRAN – Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi says numerous clues have been found with regard to the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a top nuclear scientist who was killed in a terrorist attack outside Tehran on Friday.

“Following the assassination of Martyr Fakhrizadeh, my colleagues in the Intelligence Ministry have started following up on this incident in all aspects and have so far obtained many clues,” Alavi said on the sidelines of the scientist’s funeral procession on Monday.

“Due to its security aspects, it is not possible to inform the public until all its dimensions are clarified, but as soon as the dimensions of this issue are clarified, the dear nation of Iran will be informed,” he added.

Fakhrizadeh, a senior nuclear and defense scientist, was assassinated in a small city east of Tehran on November 27.

In a message after the incident, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on all relevant administrators to “investigate this crime and firmly prosecute its perpetrators and its commanders” and “to continue the martyr’s scientific and technological efforts in all the sectors where he was active.”

Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), said on Monday that no hit man was involved in the assassination, adding that the distinguished figure was killed in a complicated operation that involved electronic equipment without any assassin at the scene.

“Unfortunately, the operation was a very complicated one. It took place with the employment of electronic equipment. No person (assassin) was present at the scene,” he explained.

IRGC chief: ‘We determine the time, place and quality of the response’

The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said Iran will soon determine the time and place of a retaliation for the act of terror.

“Enemies must await our response,” Major General Hossein Salami said on the sidelines of the funeral procession. “We determine the time, place and quality of the response.”

President Hassan Rouhani has said that Israel was behind the assassination of the prominent scientist.

“Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance and their Zionist mercenaries, were stained with the blood of another Iranian, causing deep grief across the nation for losing a hard-working scientist,” Rouhani said in a message on Saturday.

Undoubtedly, he said, the horrific terrorist attack is due to the inability of Iran’s enemies against the country’s scientific movement and the honors and capabilities of the great nation of Iran. 

“It also comes after the enemies’ repeated defeats in the region and other political arenas, and the depth of their malice and resentment,” the president noted.

TAGS

• Iran Intelligence Minister
 
• assassination
 
• Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
 
• Seyed Mahmoud Alavi
 
• Hossein Salami

Tel Aviv concerned that Yemeni missiles target Israel: Yemeni analyst

 By Mohammad Mazhari

TEHRAN – A Yemeni analyst says that the missile strike on Aramco by Yemenis is meant to send a signal that Ansarullah can hit targets inside Israel.  Hamid Rizq, a Yemeni journalist and analyst based in Lebanon, tells the Tehran Times that Tel Aviv considers the Saudi-led aggression on Yemen a “preemptive war”.

According to Rizq, Israelis have “serious concerns about the possibility of the Yemeni army carrying out ballistic strikes that hit important areas within the Zionist regime.”

The following is the text of the interview:

Q: How do you see the repercussions of the recent missile attack on the Saudi Aramco in Jeddah? What does this mean for Saudi Arabia?

A: The missile strike on the Aramco site in the city of Jeddah represents a painful blow to the Saudi regime. The target and timing were chosen with high accuracy. In fact, Jeddah is the economic and commercial capital of Saudi Arabia.  

The Quds 2 missile could target its specified goals which highlight the Saudi military and security deficit and failure in providing the protection needed for the most important vital facilities, especially after the Yemeni strikes on Abqaiq and Khurais last year.
The Saudi regime was supposed to have learned the lesson and succeeded at the minimum in securing Aramco and its branches within the Saudi territory.

So, the Yemeni strike in Jeddah revealed Saudi Arabia’s failure in terms of military and security protection. The strike also confirmed the lies of the Saudi media when it claims the ability of Saudi air defense to counter Yemeni missiles and drones.

Politically, the strike on Aramco in Jeddah undermined the results of the G20 summit hosted by Saudi Arabia. While it was hoped Saudi Arabia would invest in media to cover the summit, the Yemeni strike changed the balance against bin Salman and became the most important and prominent event in the international media.

The ballistic strike also conveyed the message of the Yemeni people to the Israeli enemy, since the timing coincided with the conclusion of the summit that brought together the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu, with Muhammad bin Salman, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Q: What are the achievements of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen?

A: The Saudi-American coalition has failed miserably in Yemen, and what it has achieved is nothing but the systematic destruction of the infrastructure and killing civilians and committing massacres against them over a period of six years.

The coalition was a treacherous stab in the back of the Yemenis. However, the coalition just occupied a few parts of Yemen. But this does not mean that they succeeded in presenting a model or establishing a successful experience in the occupied territories.
The Saudi-led coalition, which is supported by Israel and the U.S., opened the door of hell to itself which cannot avoid its consequences, and this will affect the Saudi regime in the future.

Q: How do you assess the power of the Yemeni resistance movement? 

A: The Yemeni resistance, besides its army and the popular committees, continues to accumulate factors of strength and teach the enemy harsh lessons.
The steady progress in manufacturing ballistic missiles and drones, that constantly target Saudi Arabia, are just the beginning.

Q: What is your analysis of the human rights record of the Saudis in Yemen?

A: A dark and criminal record that is shedding the blood of children and women and besieges more than twenty million Yemenis and denies them the right to medicine and healthcare.

Q: What is the role of the U.S. in undermining the efforts to establish peach in Yemen?
A: For us in Yemen what is happening is American-Israeli aggression in the first place; and the Saudi and Emirati regimes are just Arab tools that aim to push them to be at the forefront of the aggression, while the actual and fundamental agenda and goals are to confront and undermine the Yemeni revolution led by Mr. Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi.

American experts as well as the Zionists participate in the operation rooms of the Saudi-led coalition. The Israeli weapons are used to kill the sons of Yemen while the Zionist leaders have more than once expressed their concern that Ansarullah will not be defeated in Yemen. 

The Israelis consider the Saudi aggression (on Yemen) a preemptive war, as they have serious concerns about the possibility of the Yemeni army carrying out ballistic strikes that hit important areas within the Zionist regime.

TAGS

• Iran
 
• Israel
 
• Yemen
 
• Saudi Arabia
 
• missile capability

Anti-Iran Saber Rattling

By Stephen Lendman

For over 40 years, the US never attacked Iranian territory — other than by covert operations.

Tehran’s legitimate nuclear energy program has no military component — confirmed time and again by the IAEA and US intelligence community assessments.

Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh earlier said the following:

According to US National Intelligence Estimates on Iran’s nuclear program, “there is no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any effort to build the bomb,” adding:

“Despite years of covert operations inside Iran, extensive satellite imagery, and the recruitment of many Iranian intelligence assets, the United States and its allies, including Israel, have been unable to find irrefutable evidence of an ongoing hidden nuclear-weapons program in Iran…”

It’s because none exists, not now or earlier.

Iran’s nuclear program is the world’s most heavily monitored by IAEA inspectors.

Their reports across the board stress the program’s legitimacy.

No evidence suggests a future Iranian aim to develop the “bomb.”

In stark contrast, Israel is nuclear armed and dangerous. It maintains stockpiles of chemical, biological and other banned weapons.

The US operates the same way, using banned weapons in all its preemptive wars.

Yet the UN, most of its member states, and corporate-controlled establishment media turn a blind eye to vital information everyone has a right to know.

At the same time, US major media promote the myth of an Iranian threat — when none ever existed throughout Islamic State history. More on this below.

Iran is the region’s leading proponent of peace, stability, and mutual cooperation with other nations — seeking confrontation with none, threatening no other countries.

Throughout nearly four years in office, Trump waged all-out war on Iran by other means — short of military confrontation.

The one exception of sorts was last January when the Pentagon assassinated Iranian Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani and deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in their car after departing from the Baghdad International Airport.

While continuing wars he inherited, Trump launched no new ones on his own.

With his tenure nearing an end — barring a highly unlikely 11th hour Supreme Court ruling that invalidates fraudulent election results — why would he risk embroiling the Middle East in potentially greater war than anything seen since WW II?

Would he want his legacy more greatly tarnished than already?

If Iranian territory is attacked, retaliation would be swift and harsh against US regional forces, possibly against Israel.

Russia and/or China might intervene to protect their regional interests – a worst case global war scenario.

Where US ruling authorities never went since Jimmy Carter was president is highly unlikely to happen now — especially near the end of Trump’s time in office.

Yet saber-rattling US media suggest possibly otherwise.

In November, the NYT claimed Trump “asked senior advisors (for possible) options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks,” adding:

He was “dissuaded” from striking Iran militarily, including by Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley.

According to the Middle East Eye (MEE) on Tuesday, Iranian Quds Force commander General Ismail Qaani told Iraqi PMU officials in Baghdad to halt attacks on the Green Zone and US bases until Trump’s tenure ends.

According to a senior PMU commander quoted by the MEE:

“Qaani made it clear that Trump wants to drag the region into an open war before leaving, to take revenge on his opponents over losing the election, and it is not in our interest to give him any justification to start such a war.”

While it’s highly unlikely that Trump would order an attack on Iran militarily at this time, Iranian officials don’t want a pretext created for him to do the unthinkable.

Qaani added that

“(i)f war breaks out between Iran and America, its repercussions cannot be contained, and Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran will all be a battleground for both sides.”

“Therefore, the higher interest must be taken into consideration…So all attacks targeting US interests in the region should be stopped.”

According to a November 21 CENTCOM press release, a nuclear-capable B-52 bomber was sent to the Middle East on the phony pretext of “deter(ring) aggression and reassur(ing) US partners and allies.”

Reportedly, a US aircraft carrier task force is en route to the Persian Gulf, what appears to be a saber-rattling move, not preparation to strike Iran.

On Thursday, WaPo said “(a)nti-Iran hawks in the (US) and Israel see the window closing on the possibility of a preemptive US-Israeli strike against the Iranian nuclear program,” adding:

Netanyahu, Pompeo, and other Trump regime hardliners support what cooler head US and Israeli officials reject.

Netanyahu cried wolf about a nonexistent Iranian nuclear weapons program countless times before — knowing it doesn’t exist. Last week, he was quoted saying:

“There must be no return to the previous nuclear agreement.”

“We must stick to an uncompromising policy to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons (sic)” — ignoring his own illegal stockpile.

According to an unnamed US war department official, the idea of a “clean, limited surgical strike” on one more Iranian nuclear facilities is folly.

All-out regional war could follow with potentially devastating consequences for Iran, Israel, and US-allied Arab countries.

According to individuals close to Trump, he values preservation of steps taken to draw down US regional forces, an effort to stop endless wars.

Striking Iran militarily would be a polar opposite step.

His regular intelligence briefings surely explained that Iran’s nuclear program has no military component.

On November 25, Reuters reported that Trump’s envoy for regime change in Iran Elliott Abrams said more US sanctions on the country are coming regularly through January 20.

He stopped short of suggesting possible military confrontation.

Because high-level US political and military officials oppose the idea — along with the type legacy Trump wants to preserve — anything potentially leading to war with Iran is highly unlikely.

Separately on Wednesday, Axios reported that Israel’s IDF was “instructed to prepare for the possibility that the US will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office,” adding:

The move was unrelated to an “intelligence assessment” or belief that Trump would order such a strike.

It’s another example of saber-rattling.

With Trump’s tenure near an end, his focus mainly on convincing at least five Supreme Court justices to reject rigged election results against him in hopes of a second term, Iran is a side issue by comparison.

The clock is ticking on his remaining days in office, as things now stand.

As January 20 inauguration day draws closer, chances for Trump ordering a military strike on Iran will likely diminish and fade away.

Hostile US actions on Iran — short of hot war — will continue as it’s played out endlessly since its 1979 revolution.

*Award-winning author Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG)

His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”