Three unpredictable variables

Marco Carnelos

Lebanese expats are welcomed by demonstrators upon their arrival at Beirut International Airport on 22 November (AFP)

In 2020, the key trends for the Middle East will continue to be conditioned by the long-running clash between the so-called Arab Nato, consisting of the United States, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the so-called Axis of Resistance, composed of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen. Both camps are contending the leadership in the region. The first one is attempting the reaffirmation of Pax Americana, the second one openly challenging it.

In 2020, the street protests, more than those in power, could affect events in the Middle East

Russia, China and Turkey will be the spoilers. They will exert their influence from outside - which is increasing anyway - and affect the balance of power between these two camps in a pragmatic way, on a case-by-case approach. In such an established geopolitical framework, three additional elements should be considered.

Firstly, there is the presidential election campaign in the United States, where the US role in the Middle East could be debated between Trump, who aspires to limit it, and Washington’s foreign policy and defence establishment, which remains inclined to persevere with endless wars in the region. To some extent, both mainstream Republican and Democratic parties remain subscribers to endless wars, adding further confusion to an already complex picture.

Secondly, there are the ongoing protests in several Arab capitals, mainly, but not only, Beirut and Baghdad. It remains to be seen whether, and how, the protests will be able to alter the balances in the region - and, in particular, Iranian influence. 

Thirdly, the parliamentary elections in Iran, due to be held in February, could significantly constrain President Hassan Rouhani’s room to manoeuvre in a possibly controlled de-escalation with the US. The popular mood in Arab, American and Iranian streets will be one of the key, unpredictable, wild variables. In 2020, the street protests, more than those in power, could affect events in the Middle East.