Richard Silverstein
Both the US and Israel face momentous elections in the coming year.
Israel’s will be in early February, and the third such election in the past 12 months, an unprecedented political stalemate. It doesn’t promise to bring much in the way of change, regardless of who wins.
If Trump loses and Democrats strengthen their hand in Congress, US policy will likely revert to the approach favoured by former President Barack Obama
The US election in November promises to be much more pivotal, as it marks an opportunity to unseat Donald Trump, who has brought volatility and uncertainty to relations with the Middle East: from the precipitous withdrawal from Syria at the instigation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to the near-attack on Iran for downing a US drone (avoided at the last minute if Trump is to be believed), to a wholesale sellout of Palestinians in favour of Israel regarding the much-vaunted "deal of the century".
Trump has been weakened by his impeachment in the House of Representatives, but it appears unlikely the Senate will convict him and remove him from office. This means that he will limp into the November election as a wounded candidate. Nevertheless, he will retain much of his Republican support and still be formidable. If Trump loses and Democrats strengthen their hand in Congress, US policy will likely revert to the approach favoured by former President Barack Obama.
Though there will be little chance for improvement regarding Israel-Palestine, a Democratic president could ease tensions with Iran considerably. Leading Democratic contender Joe Biden has not been known to stake out a clear policy towards the region. Senator Bernie Sanders has been the most outspoken in his willingness to criticise Israel. He is the first Democrat in decades to threaten to withhold US aid to Israel.
This marks a sea change among normally obeisant Democratic candidates who refuse to rock the boat on Israel.
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