How the foreign-backed conspiracy to overthrow Asad is failing in Syria

by Crescent-Online.net

October, 2012 What has upset foreign conspirators the most is the resilience of the Asad regime. It has lasted 21 months of incessant attacks from inside and out and there are no signs that it is about to collapse. Dubai, Crescent- online October 11, 2012, 00:00 EST The only certainty in war is its uncertainty. As any general, no matter how brilliant, would testify, the best-laid plans are quickly rendered useless by the vagaries of war. This is even more so in internal conflicts where there are far too many variables to make accurate predictions or plans. This thesis is best illustrated by events unfolding in Syria, especially over the last four months. The conspiracy against Bashar al-Asad's regime was hatched in February 2011 in a Paris cafe. The conspirators included in addition to some members of the Syrian opposition, Jeffrey Feltman, an American arch-Zionist, Dan Shapiro, US ambassador to Israel, Bandar bin Sultan, then Saudi Security chief and currently the kingdom's intelligence chief, as well as a representative of Saad Hariri, the playboy and former Lebanese prime minister. According to this plan, the uprising was to be launched in Deraa, a small town in the middle of nowhere. Deraa was chosen because of its proximity to the Jordanian border from where weapons were to be smuggled in. Both the conspirators and Syrian opposition groups were misled by the ease with which Colonel Muammar Qaddafi was overthrown in Libya. It was assumed that like Qaddafi, Asad too would be disposed of in a matter of months if not weeks. The tiny Emirate of Qatar also quickly signed on. Flushed with billions of gas dollars, Qatar is punching way above its weight in regional politics. Initially, Turkey, the most important regional player, was reluctant to jump into the fray. The Turks thought because of their importance, they could persuade Asad to do what they wanted him to do. In May 2011, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Damascus and in a meeting with President Bashar al-Asad, gave him what was essentially a list of demands. Asad gave him a polite hearing but was not going to accept foreign dictation. When Asad refused to comply with Turkish demands, perhaps drawn out with Saudi help (the Saudis cannot stand the Asad clan or the Alawites although for the record Asad is not Alawite but Sunni although that is neither here or there), the Turks took offense and joined the anti-Asad alliance. Weapons started to flood into Syria from Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The French, Americans, British, and Turks also provided logistical support as well as intelligence. The Saudis and Qataris offered to buy any senior civilian or military Syrian official willing to defect. There have been few takers. Brigadier Manaf Tlas is the highest ranking military officer to defect. The foreign conspirators faced another problem. The Syrian National Council they cobbled together out of exiled Syrians has no support inside Syria. Further, Syrian opposition groups inside the country detest these rank opportunists whose only ambition seems to be to get their hands on as much foreign cash as possible while people inside the country die. What has upset foreign conspirators the most is the resilience of the Asad regime. It has lasted 21 months of incessant attacks from inside and out and there are no signs that it is about to collapse. Instead, the foreign conspirators are beginning to panic. Saudi King Abdullah in particular is greatly worried. As the crisis drags on, he feels it will make life more difficult for him in the kingdom where the succession battle is already intensifying with the first generation of Saudi royals heading to their graves. He has mooted a Yemeni-style transition in Syria. He would be content with Tlas taking over from Asad. This is the other version of the Davutoglu plan whereby he said on October 7 that Turkey would accept Farouk el-Sharaa replacing Asad. These proposals clearly point to the fact that the military option, a la Libya, is not viable in Syria. There are other worries as well. The influx of a large number of foreign mercenaries into Syria is causing great concern for the Saudis, Jordanians and Americans. The Americans have already had a blowback in Benghazi when ambassador Chris Stevens was killed by a Libyan terrorist outfit that was trained and armed by NATO to overthrow Qaddafi. There is also disagreement on how to proceed. A meeting between the intelligence chiefs of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France and the US in Turkey last month failed to produce a clear plan of action. This was followed on October 10 by a meeting between Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan and the Qatari Emir, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani in Doha, Qatar. This too failed to produce any tangible result because Qatar wants to intensify the war in Syria while the Saudis want a face-saving way out. Of course, Qatar has no army to speak of; it can only provide soccer players that only know how to swing in a night club but cannot handle guns. While the Saudis are getting cold feet, Qatar continues to punch above its weight. Next week it is convening another meeting of Syrian opposition groups to try and unite them. It may be easier to convince the mice to work with cats that Syrian opposition groups to work together. As Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution in Doha said: "It's all a bit of a mess." Yes, indeed, it is, and all of their own making. They have nobody but themselves to blame. Those playing with fire are likely to get their fingers burnt.