Source: Al Mayadeen English
After the flood, if the fronts of confrontation are to expand, the Middle East will become the wide gateway through which a new, more balanced, and just world order will pass.
They who dubbed it Operation al-Aqsa Flood did not err, for they had great foreknowledge of what it would bring.
It is indeed a 'flood' that has surged beyond the narrow confines of the besieged Gaza Strip, to sweep away narratives and equations in the region and engulf the entire Earth and its arenas. As a response to the al-Aqsa Mosque's desecration, it has unveiled hidden truths and peeled away the thin veneer that "Israel", the West, and Arab and regional capitals tried to hide behind, to reveal the ugliest forms of impotence, collusion, betrayal, and show the colonialist West in its original form before it rebranded colonization as a 'mandate', and before it donned starched white colors and appeared before us in the garb of preachers.
It is the mother of decisive battles, with nothing like it before or to follow in the foreseeable future. It is truly incomparable. It marks the defining and dividing moment between two eras and ages. The Gaza whirlwind heralded an earthquake, and now the battle is between two futures for Palestine and the region. It would not be an exaggeration to proclaim to the world that this battle broke out of the shell [pun on Gaza 'envelope'] on the morning of October 7th, but 'futurologist' minds are unable to gauge the aftershocks and the repercussions that will follow, or the dynamics and equations it may bring to light.
I do not doubt for a moment that those who planned and engineered the flood and unleashed it like a thunderbolt also prepared lifeboats with ring buoys – yes, boats and not 'boat', for the battles rage on against Gaza and the resistance. The war, however, will span the entirety of West Asia, the Arab world, and its surroundings.
In trials such as these, one achieves either glory or disgrace. Either one takes a stand for history, as well as for posterity, or one balks and takes a seat, in a manner that all the armies of pedants and servants of Arab sultans and courts cannot spin or justify. The moment of reckoning is surely coming, even if there is some delay. Gaza has seared itself into the minds, hearts, and consciences of this generation, and never shall it fade from their collective memory. Nor do I imagine that its effects will dissipate once the guns fall silent.
To be or not to be, that is the question of the existential war that the Palestinian people, the Arab ummah, the free people of the world find themselves facing. In a momentous occasion of such singularity, the people, the resistance, and their allies and friends have no option but to prevail, no matter how great the sacrifices and how long the procession of coffins.
I suspect – and in this suspicion, there is not a trace of sin [ [Re: Qur'an 49:12, Suspicion in some cases is a sin] – that Operation al-Aqsa Flood was the cue for bringing about an overhaul of the Palestinian scene after years and decades of death and slumber and a continuous stream of concessions that have failed to satisfy Zionist appetites for expansion, settlement, and erasure. After years and decades of servility and mendicity, after illusions were shattered and the biggest deception of the Palestinian people – the Oslo process and the PA – was exposed, now comes the official declaration of the launch of a strategic Palestinian phase marked by resistance to occupation, racism, Judaization, Israelization, and the loss of land, rights, and holy sites. This is the alternative to going along with projects whose dark implications have become clear to even the blind. This is the beginning of the revival and reawakening of the Palestinian national movement in all of Palestine, not just in Gaza, and in the diaspora, based on resisting the occupation to rout it and dismantle its settler-colonialism.
This is the start of recovery, a united front, and the unification of the people, the cause, and the resistance in all places where Palestinians exist. This is the first step to rescuing the PLO and freeing it from the grip of the small, influential faction that has turned it into a seal with which to stamp humiliating agreements and arrangements that have downgraded the Palestinian dream to the level of municipal administrations, city leagues, and 'dis-united Palestinian emirates'.
This is the beginning of an overhaul of Palestinian dynamics and balances of power, intersecting with the rise of Gen Z and the new trend of resistance in the West Bank and al-Quds, as well as with the 'unity of arenas' doctrine, Operation Sword of al-Quds, and the awakening of the Palestinian diaspora in countries of refuge and relocation. This is the second launch of the Palestinian national movement, and I believe that it surpasses the first launch in its greatness and the greatness of its achievements.
Here, we pause to stress that Palestine cannot be allowed to squander this opportunity, and the Palestinians cannot be allowed to entertain any option other than victory in this momentous battle. Before we think about the heavy cost this option holds for Gaza and the Palestinians, the skeptical, fainthearted, and hesitant should think for a minute about the cost of the other option – the option of defeat, God forbid – once the 'deal of the century' becomes an unattainable ambition and an elusive goal.
I suspect – and in this suspicion, there is not a trace of sin either - the war on Gaza, its people, and its resistance means waging war on Hezbollah and its regional allies, from Qazvin to the Eastern Mediterranean. Today, it is Gaza and Hamas; tomorrow, it will be Lebanon and Hezbollah, and the day after that it will be Damascus, Baghdad, and Sanaa until it reaches Tehran at the final station – or perhaps not the final one. This is a war against the entire Axis. It is a settling of the heavy scores of a half-century of conflict of various forms, arenas, tools, and levels. The parties and components of this axis understand this. The maxim 'if one of us falls, we all fall' is ever-present in their legacy and thinking. The door is still open for something bigger, broader, and graver to occur once the heating-up or gradual escalation phase is over and the fiery messages in all these arenas have expanded their rallying purposes and their warning functions.
Here, I will venture to propose a theory that deviates from the prevailing idea: Hamas and the resistance have opened a window and opportunity to effect tremendous, crucial change in the considerations, equations, and dynamics in place. We must not close this window by calling for a ceasefire and de-escalation or waiting for the tide to shift against the resistance. Instead, we must act to expand the scope of the battle across multiple arenas, as long as Israeli naked fragility is on display after the myth of the 'invincible army' and the 'infallible Mossad' has been shattered, and as long as the U.S. is too weak to get involved in its third full-scale regional war in two decades after suffering ignominious defeats in the first two, and as long as the West and its allies today serve no function beyond ensuring the conditions to single out Gaza under the guise of not expanding the war, and as long as it is possible to deal a strategic defeat to "Israel". We have a historic opportunity to achieve this that may not come again for years or even decades to come.
If Gaza, Palestine, and the resistance win, the entire Axis will triumph, and the Axis of free normalization will suffer an ignominious defeat. The outposts of U.S. imperial dominance over the region will fall forever, and the doors will close on the 'Middle Eastern NATO' project in its various forms and versions. Our countries will have the chance to shape their future free of diktats. The security, stability, and prosperity of the region will be in the hands of its people, not in the hands of Western military-industrial complexes and oil companies (especially U.S. ones), lobbies, and the coalitions of evil in control of international policies.
This is a historic opportunity to bring a much-needed change of direction in the region towards the future. The opportunity is still here, but it will not remain open for long. There is an expectation driven by hope, and perhaps some wishful thinking, that Gaza and its resistance movement will not be left to fight alone.
In the regional context of the aftermath of Operation al-Aqsa Flood, there are observations that cannot be ignored. Some of them have been voiced by the millions of angry people who have taken to Arab streets and squares to condemn the aggression and express support for Gaza and the resistance – such as the fact that the masks hiding behind the masks have fallen in many if not all, Arab capitals. However, there are a few other observations that pertain to the two biggest and most active Arab states, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Despite its Arab and international stature and standing, Cairo was unable to send a single truck of food or medicine into Gaza without "Israel's" permission, even though the Rafah crossing is on the Egyptian/Palestinian border. Its political and diplomatic performance was dismal indeed. The shameful reception of the French president in Cairo only adds insult to injury with its implicit acceptance of the Israelized Western narrative about 'Palestinian terrorist groups', without having the courage to even mention the phrase 'ceasefire' in the presence of that president, who has been routed in Africa and is now seeking a role in our region through the Israeli gateway.
This is to say nothing of Egypt's proposal of the al-Naqab desert in lieu of the Sinai desert as a temporary or permanent refuge for forcibly displaced Palestinians. This disappointing specimen of performance from the biggest state in the Arab world reflects lows that even some of our small marginal states have not stooped to.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, was hit with the 'flood' while at the height of its preparations to enter and advance the normalization process with "Israel". Some Saudi commentators unfortunately interpreted the operation as an Iranian attempt to obstruct that process, although obstructing that process, and indeed cutting the legs out from under it, is a noble mission and a loftier pursuit than any other. Most of their articles and Tweets were marked by vindictiveness and schadenfreude over the destruction of Gaza and the carnage of its people.
The most important aspect of the Saudi affair is that the flood caught Riyadh by surprise while in the thick of its efforts to assume the leadership of both the Arab and Muslim worlds, with everyone's consent and recognition. But its conduct has been unbefitting of a country seeking command and leadership. It chose to take a back seat, even by official Arab standards and criteria.
In my opinion, Saudi Arabia missed a golden opportunity to prove itself worthy of leadership. For months, we have been saying that any party that aspires to lead the Arab world must start with Palestine, its cause, and the struggle of its people. Otherwise, who would accept to be led by those who have neither the capability and power nor the will to use the tremendous trump cards at their disposal to prove themselves worthy and deserving?
I suspect – and in this suspicion too there is not a trace of sin either – that the war on Gaza and its resistance has opened new prospects on the international stage in the raging conflict over the identity and nature of the new world order. The Security Council seems to be reliving flashbacks of 'the flood', for its sessions today are reminiscent of its sessions at the height of the Cold War and the Cuban missile crisis. This partly explains the hysteria that struck the West after October 7th, especially since the 'flood' hit it while it was struggling to achieve victory in Ukraine to no avail, and so was hoping to recoup its losses in Palestine, Gaza, and the Middle East.
Tiny Gaza has become a wide window for Moscow and Beijing to activate their presence in the region. Now more than ever, they have emerged as the superpowers most closely aligned to the Arab narrative and interests, as well as the most committed to the rules of international law, international human rights law, and international legitimacy.
If the battlefronts are destined to expand in the aftermath of the flood, the Middle East will become the wide gateway that ushers in a new, more balanced, and more just world order. The Middle East has precedents in that domain; at least twice now it has ushered in a new era. The first time was after the Suez War when it stepped out from under the mantle of the old French-British colonial era into the care of the new U.S. colonial era. The second time was when the defeat of the socialist camp and the Soviet Union manifested in the Second Gulf War, which erupted on the threshold of the transition from the Cold War to the unipolar world, in the first trial by fire for the new order.
We must keep an eye on the bigger picture unveiled by the war in Gaza. All the parties and actors are making their assessments and re-evaluating the stances and alignments in light of it.
The constant stream of images from Gaza depicting the scenes of death, destruction, and atrocities should by no means obscure the broader view, for the war is still a long way off from the finish line.
