Saudi-UAE Proxy War Drives STC Expansion, Yemen’s Fragmentation

ABYAN, Yemen (KI) -- UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces announced the launch of a new military campaign in Yemen’s southern Abyan province, as the group continues to expand its territorial control across the south. 

The offensive, named “Operation Decisive Resolve,” was announced as an effort to target what the STC described as “terrorist groups” and to reinforce security and stability, according to spokesman Muhammad al-Naqeeb.
The Abyan offensive follows rapid STC advances in recent weeks in the eastern provinces of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra. The STC has claimed full control over both governorates, Yemen’s largest and most strategically significant regions. 
These developments come despite Saudi efforts to curb the group’s expansion, including a Saudi delegation visit to Hadhramaut on September 9 that called for stability and demanded an STC withdrawal.
The advances have taken place after weeks of clashes between STC forces and units loyal to the Saudi-backed fugitive regime, represented by the so-called Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Although a ceasefire was announced on December 3, it quickly collapsed as STC forces continued to move forward, seizing territory across Abyan, Shabwa, Al-Mahra, and Hadhramaut. Several oil facilities and strategic sites are now under STC control, further weakening the PLC’s authority in the south.
Observers have noted that some areas fell to the STC with limited resistance, fueling speculation that parts of the territory may have been handed over. According to Yemen analyst Karim Shami, the speed of the STC’s expansion suggests possible coordination or prior understandings between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite their growing rivalry.
While both countries were partners in the Saudi-led war launched in 2015 against the Ansarallah-led government in Sana’a, the conflict has increasingly taken on the character of a proxy struggle between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. 
Critics argue that this rivalry has pushed Yemen closer to fragmentation, with each power backing local forces to secure influence, resources, and strategic geography.
The STC’s push toward consolidating control over southern Yemen aligns with its longstanding goal of re-establishing a separate southern state. Analysts and regional observers have also pointed to broader geopolitical interests, including alleged UAE coordination with Israel to secure influence over Yemeni ports and key maritime routes in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandeb strait.
Ansarallah has described the unfolding situation as a “crisis between two occupiers,” warning that the competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is accelerating Yemen’s disintegration and deepening the country’s long-running war.