The Caspian Sea, once a stable and vital inland water body, is now facing a dramatic ecological decline with far-reaching regional and global consequences.
Samyar Rostami
At the beginning of the 19th century, the sea level was much higher than today. But then the water level began to decrease. After periodic fluctuations since the mid-1990s, the sea level has begun to decrease and has decreased by about 2-3 meters.
The retreat is slow on the southern coast, but it is noticeable on its shallow northern coast. Data indicate a decrease of 7 centimeters per year, and even the northern part of the sea, or areas with a depth of 5 meters, could practically disappear by 2050. According to various theories, the main reasons for the decrease in the Caspian Sea water level are multiple.
Global warming is increasing in many parts of the world. Therefore, some consider the increase in sea surface water evaporation, the growth of greenhouse gases and the increase in temperature, climate change, global warming, a 1.5 degree Celsius increase in the surface temperature of the Caspian Sea, and a 15 percent increase in sea water evaporation to be important in the current situation.
Therefore, the exchange of information, experience, and effective solutions; collective actions aimed at improving and minimizing the negative consequences; and adapting economic activities are effective
Another theory links the shallowing of the Caspian Sea to fluctuations in the seabed. Some also point to the repetition of a specific and periodic cycle of Caspian water over the past 4,000 years.
Rivers such as the Volga are the main suppliers of water to the Caspian Sea. From the perspective of some, disruption of the water balance in the Caspian basin, a decrease in the flow of 130 incoming rivers, the construction of dams, drought, increased water consumption for agriculture, and also to meet industrial needs, are among the reasons for the decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea.
Consequences
The change and decrease in the water level of the Caspian Sea have several important consequences, and concerns have also been raised. The decline in the Caspian Sea has and will have serious environmental, economic, demographic, geopolitical, and security consequences for the entire region, especially for the five littoral states.
In recent years, the authorities of the littoral states have become increasingly concerned about the negative consequences of this issue and have issued warnings. The decline in the water level could negatively affect the determination of the “baseline,” “internal waters,” “territorial waters,” “fishing areas,” “common maritime space,” the land area, and coastlines of the Caspian littoral states.
More than 15 million people live in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea, who depend on the Caspian Sea for fishing, shipping, trade, and even drinking water. Ecological changes can have human and social impacts, leading to resource depletion, migration, and population decline on the Caspian coast; desertification, endangering the health of the population of the littoral states; dust storms; and mineral depletion. The distance from existing coastal settlements to the new coast will also increase.
Ports are important hubs for regional trade and part of international transport corridors, especially the North-South routes. The shallowing of the Caspian Sea has negatively affected the operation of the Aktau port and could negatively affect a significant part of the corridors, especially the North-South corridor.
The Caspian Sea has oil and natural gas resources. The decrease in the Caspian Sea water level threatens the operation of fossil fuel industries. It will also negatively affect ports and docks, as well as transit and shipping, the Volga River canals and ship berthing, oil and gas transportation, and industrial activities, including oil production.
The water situation in the Caspian Sea has deteriorated significantly since 2022. The decrease in water level also poses challenges and threats to the ecosystem and environment, threatening the climate of the entire region, desertification of the coast and coastal areas, coastal advance, dust generation, and other environmental consequences, especially in coastal areas.
Outlook
Climatic, human, hydrological, and other factors alone cannot be the main cause of changes in the Caspian Sea water. Although there is a possibility of a natural cycle of water level fluctuations or the beginning of a reverse process or a rise in sea level in the medium and long term.
However, it is estimated that the Caspian Sea water level could decrease by 9 to 18 meters by the end of the 21st century. That means it will lose about a quarter or a third of its area, mostly in the northern part. Therefore, the continuation of water reduction or negative scenarios in the short term can certainly affect socio-ecological crises, marine biodiversity, and the economic and social stability of the region.
The Caspian Environment Program, with the participation of the United Nations, in the year 2024, is useful. Therefore, to prevent catastrophic consequences, urgent and joint actions, sustained and extensive efforts by all littoral states, joint actions, more active diplomacy, and the use of the capacities of the Tehran Convention are needed.
Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran need a plan to mitigate the effects of climate change to help preserve the ecosystem and social stability and ensure the well-being of coastal populations. Developing integrated policies and approaches and increasing international cooperation, involving all state and non-state actors in policy-making and implementing preventive programs, and a holistic approach in order to improve the environmental situation and preserve common resources are also fundamental.
The littoral states of the Caspian Sea should also put integrated, coordinated, and comprehensive policies and approaches on the agenda to support coastal communities and preserve the Caspian Sea.
As the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources is developing a comprehensive program to increase forecasting, mitigate the consequences of sea-level decline, and adjust economic activity to reflect new hydrological realities,
National cooperation and a coordinated, long-term strategy for water resources management are essential to address this environmental crisis. In August, Turkmenistan hosted a meeting with representatives of the five littoral states on ecological security, biodiversity conservation, sustainable use of resources, and the decline in the Caspian Sea water level.
In this regard, coordinated actions under the Caspian Summit and the development of regional and international cooperation of the Caspian littoral states—Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan—to combat the consequences of the crisis are an important need. Therefore, the exchange of information, experience, and effective solutions; collective actions aimed at improving and minimizing the negative consequences; and adapting economic activities are effective.
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
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