Omar Ahmed
Omar Ahmed
This triggered a genocidal war on Gaza and the occupied West Bank. The Hamas-led operation aimed to protect Al-Aqsa Mosque, highlight its sacredness, and oppose ongoing Judaization of Jerusalem, alongside provocative zionist incursions at the site.
Over a year later, US military, economic, and political support for the occupation forces has taken a toll on the Resistance Axis. September marked major setbacks, beginning with the assassination of Hizbullah’s Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, followed by the bombardment and ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
These events were preceded by pager and walkie-talkie attacks targeting Hizbullah operatives. Despite an already violated ceasefire agreement, with Israel failing to achieve its stated objectives, Hizbullah had superior political resolve but has suffered serious setbacks.
This became evident when Syrian rebels, led by Al-Qaeda offshoot Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), seized the opportunity to launch a blitz beyond Idlib. They captured major cities before toppling Bashar al-Asad’s government in Damascus. This severed a vital supply route connecting Iran to Hizbullah, transforming Syria from an alliance member to a lost strategic asset.
From a broader perspective, Iran’s regional power projection has suffered significant setbacks. Resistance to NATO-backed zionist expansionism has faltered, with Israeli tanks advancing for the first time in 50 years after Asad’s fall, seizing more Syrian land than ever before.
Moreover, Iran’s unconventional deterrence strategy, centred on armed resistance factions, has been severely undermined. Israel’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric to attack Iranian territory has also escalated.
These developments strengthen pre-existing calls for a reassessment of Iran’s deterrence strategy, particularly its nuclear doctrine. Historically, Iran’s policy has been shaped by a fatwa issued by its leader, Imam Seyyed Ali Khamenei prohibiting the development or use of nuclear weapons.
The Axis of Resistance has long been central to Iran’s deterrence strategy against Israel and the US. However, recent strategic gains have emboldened Israel, which sees a weakened Hizbullah and fractured Syria as an opportunity to assert dominance.
Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and Syria reveal its renewed confidence in countering Iran’s influence. This threatens Iran’s strategic depth, forcing Tehran to reconsider its approach.
Iran’s nuclear programme has been a contentious issue. The Rahbar, Imam Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons has defined Iran’s policy as both a moral and political statement. Yet, recent statements from Iranian officials hint at the possibility of change.
Given current geopolitical realities, Tehran might need to revise this stance. With its regional allies weakened and threats from Israel intensifying, a more robust deterrence strategy could be necessary.
While outright nuclear weaponisation remains unlikely, introducing ambiguity around Iran’s nuclear capabilities could act as a deterrent. Such a shift would mirror the principle of strategic ambiguity notably employed by Israel, leaving adversaries uncertain about Iran’s potential response.
Despite setbacks in Lebanon and Syria, other members of the Axis of Resistance remain active. Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned forces impose a naval blockade and maintain their commitment to Palestine, while Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue operations despite US pressure to disband them and threats from Israel.
Zionist Israel, and its principal backers the US and Britain, continue to bomb Ansarallah targets in Yemen. This was the case most recently on December 26 when Israel launched a series of strikes on Yemen, including the airport at Sana‘a causing considerable damage to infrastructure and killing many passengers.
While challenging the zionist entity, the Ansarallah and Iraq’s PMF lack the geographical proximity to Israel that Syria and Hizbullah once provided, limiting their deterrent value in the Levant. This only shows the urgent need for Tehran to recalibrate its strategy.
Iran has increasingly envisioned arming resistance groups in the occupied West Bank, recognising its strategic importance. There is also an option of establishing resistance factions in neighbouring Jordan. Strengthening these groups not only challenges Israeli security but also demonstrates Iran’s enduring commitment to the Palestinian cause. However, limitations of movement in the Levant, with the new government in Syria opposed to conflict with Israel will remain an obstacle to these ambitions.
The weakening of the Axis of Resistance presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Iran. Revisiting its nuclear doctrine could send a strong signal to adversaries, bolstering Iran’s deterrence capabilities in a time of growing uncertainty. While losing an ally in Syria and a weakened Hizbullah are significant setbacks, Iran’s ability to adapt will shape its future regional strategy.
Iran has already signalled it will continue to support Hizbullah without relying on Damascus. Seyyed Hasan Nasrallah’s successor Sheikh Naim Qassem acknowledged: “Hizbullah has lost the supply route coming through Syria at the current stage, but this is a small detail and may change with time.”
Introducing greater ambiguity into its nuclear stance, particularly in light of the incoming Trump presidency and a return to its “maximum pressure” campaign, could prove to be a decisive element of this adaptation.
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