Mohammad Khajui– Researcher on Lebanese Issues
After the end of Michel Aoun’s six-year term as president, from about two years ago to now, Lebanon has been in a political vacuum; during this period, a new president has not yet been elected. The government that is currently ruling Lebanon under the leadership of Mr. Najib Mikati is an interim government and lacks full legal authority. Therefore, the current priority in today’s Lebanese environment is to end this political vacuum, elect a president, and then elect a prime minister and form a government so that Lebanon can enter a new environment that will allow it to overcome the crises and consequences of the recent war and ultimately move towards resolving them. Reconstruction of war-torn areas is among the measures that should be on the agenda.
However, what has caused the political vacuum in Lebanon over the past two years is due to two main issues: First, the plurality of the Lebanese parliament. The country’s political structure is parliamentary, so a majority vote of the 128-member parliament elects the president and prime minister. Since Lebanon is generally a very pluralistic country in terms of clans and politics, the decision-making process there is very slow, and this slowness of decision-making has become even more pronounced in the current parliament because the plurality in this parliament is greater than in previous periods. In other words, no powerful group can have an absolute majority and elect the president alone. But at the same time, these groups have the ability to prevent the opposing parties from trying to elect the president or prime minister alone. In other words, they have the power of abstention or refusal to attend and can remove the parliament from the quorum. Therefore, in the current situation, the majority in the parliament is one of the reasons for the continuation of this political vacuum in Lebanon. The second issue goes back to the recent war between the Israeli regime and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Specifically, from the day after the October 7th operation by Hamas against the Israeli regime, with the entry of Hezbollah and the exchange of fire with this regime, the political situation in Lebanon was practically affected by this war, and this vacuum increased.
Everyone was waiting to see what the political scene in Lebanon would be like after this war. In this regard, it seems that some changes have taken place in the political atmosphere of Lebanon after this war in the sense that the weakening of Hezbollah in the field has caused the political weight of this movement in the domestic arena to decrease, which has affected the arrangement of political coalitions in Lebanon.
On the other hand, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, which had caused the convergence of parties such as Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon to be stronger, has also weakened this complex. Therefore, these conditions have caused Hezbollah and its allies to face challenges in making decisions in the political arena in Lebanon and in electing a president, and they do not have the power they once had in determining the political arena.
In addition, recently, it has been said that Hezbollah’s most important candidate, Mr. Suleiman Franjieh, has practically withdrawn from the scene because he has no chance of winning. Given the plurality in parliament on the one hand and the weakening of Hezbollah on the other, a new balance has been created between Lebanese groups. This means that the next president should probably be the result of national agreement and consensus in the Lebanese scene and, in a way, the common denominator of the groups that are manifested in the new balance to reflect it. Of course, it is very unlikely that a new president will be elected soon, that is, on the date that has been announced (January 9).
At the same time, the position of major and regional powers is also very influential in Lebanon’s political situation. Given that the Donald Trump administration has not yet taken office, there are many ambiguities and doubts in the political scene of this country that the Lebanese groups will be able to reach an agreement by January 9.
It should not be overlooked that the Lebanese political scene and the alignment of forces have changed under the influence of the new conditions, and reaching a consensus has become even more difficult than in the past. Ultimately, it seems that someone should be elected as president, who is the result of the opinions of all groups so that he can move the situation in Lebanon towards political and security stability.
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