Lebanon’s pursuit of political stability is overshadowed by escalating smuggling networks, sectarian tensions, and the volatile aftermath of Syria’s collapse.
The Cradle
The swift ascent of Al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani), exacerbated concerns that Lebanon, already fragile from years of turmoil, could bear the brunt of this seismic shift.
Due to the spill-over of the Syrian civil war that started in 2011, Lebanon endured devastating terrorist attacks and simmering Sunni–Shia tensions exploited by foreign-backed sleeper cells. Now, the fear is that the region might once again face chaos with the establishment of a new extremist Syrian government.
Adding to this unease was the ‘coincidence’ of Assad’s downfall that overlapped with the start of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah, though demonstrating extraordinary resilience, suffered severe blows militarily and politically.
The assassination of Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and the resistance movement's top military leadership left a vacuum that emboldened extremist groups in Lebanon. Perceiving Hezbollah as weakened, these groups may view this moment as a perfect opportunity to strike, particularly in light of Lebanon’s apparent new-found political stability under the western-backed newly elected President Joseph Aoun.
The celebrations masking deeper anxieties
Lebanon's reaction to Assad's fall was polarized. Celebrations erupted in several Lebanese northern areas, including Tripoli, with car parades, fireworks, and chanting. Yet beneath the surface, these public festivities often hinted at a more sinister reality.
While some remained limited to harmless jubilation, others carried ominous undertones – extremist groups seizing the moment to reassert themselves after years of operating in the shadows.
The most alarming incident took place in Beirut’s Sabra neighborhood. Security sources reported the raising of Nusra Front flags and armed displays by Syrian nationals wielding Kalashnikov rifles and donning headbands emblazoned with the group’s emblem.
Led by the Salafi-leaning Sheikh “Zakur A,” this show of force was officially limited to taking pictures and blasting religious chants and anthems. Yet, security experts fear these actions could signal a deeper strategy, particularly given similar activities in Shatila camp, where celebratory gunfire accompanied organized gatherings.
Arms flowing into Lebanon
The fall of Assad coincided with significant security shifts in Lebanon, including the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This development compelled Palestinian factions to surrender positions outside the camps, prompting leading groups like Fatah al-Intifada to redistribute weapons among their members while retaining a portion to deceive authorities, as observed in the Sirub area near the Ain al-Hilweh camp in Sidon (Saida).
This was only the beginning of a broader arms influx. Weapons looted from Syrian military depots flooded into Lebanon, sold at extremely low prices.
A Kalashnikov rifle could be purchased for as little as $25, fueling an arms trade that empowered militants and criminal gangs alike. The proliferation of cheap, accessible weapons spurred fears of internal conflict as groups in Sabra, Shatila, Naameh, Khaldeh, and other areas began stockpiling arms.
Lebanese authorities have exposed intricate smuggling networks driving the flow of arms into militant-controlled areas. Disguised as poultry shipments from Akkar, these weapons ended up in the possession of armed groups.
Smuggling routes and key players
On the night of 3 January, a fresh arms shipment arrived in Beirut’s Sabra area. Security sources confirmed that a group of Syrians and Lebanese with Salafi leanings, led by J.H., a Lebanese associate of imprisoned cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir, took delivery near the Hariri dispensary adjacent to Shatila camp and Tareeq al-Jadida.
This was not an isolated event. Similar arms deliveries have reportedly been occurring since the Syrian government’s fall. Among the recipients were participants in the 2012 Tareeq al-Jadida clashes against Arab Movement Party leader Shaker al-Berjawi, including members of the Al-Taqwa Association and other Islamist groups. Members of Fatah al-Intifada in Shatila camp, many with criminal records for offenses such as illegal firearm use and drug trafficking, also obtained weapons.
Smuggling activities are entrenched in Akkar, in northern Lebanon. Stolen motorcycles, for instance, are transported weekly to Syria via Wadi Khaled, often with altered or erased chassis numbers.
Despite these covert operations, security forces have made some headway. Last month, Lebanon's State Security arrested M.H., a prominent arms smuggler in Akkar, and seized a cache of 25 Kalashnikov rifles and PKC machine guns. M.H. is accused of bringing in multiple shipments of 30-50 weapons each, most of which have already been sold.
Reports suggest that some of these arms were funneled to Syrian families in Khaldeh, with the Mufleh clan emerging as primary beneficiaries.
Political maneuvering amid Lebanon’s uncertainty
Political involvement has added a layer of complexity to the situation. Tripoli MP Ashraf Rifi reportedly made two visits to Khaldeh last month – once to congratulate Sheikh Omar G., a controversial figure linked to the 2021 Khaldeh clashes, on his release from prison, and another time in a covert meeting believed to be aimed at cultivating local alliances.
In Naameh, Sheikh Tareq M. has been a key figure in overseeing arms distribution. After returning from Syria following Assad’s fall, he was prominently seen alongside Sharaa during his victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque. Footage of Sheikh Tareq kissing Sharaa’s hand has been widely circulated, signaling his alignment with the new government.
Symbols of shifting allegiances have also emerged. In Naameh, Sharaa’s image was raised, while in Khaldeh, a large picture of Assir appeared near the Shibli Center, sparking unrest among locals. The Lebanese Army Intelligence quickly intervened to remove the provocative image.
Meanwhile, a meeting in Damascus brought together senior Lebanese and Syrian security officials to discuss multiple issues, including border security and arms smuggling prevention.
When questioned about Syrian support for Lebanese militant groups, Syrian officials reportedly stated:
“Numerous Lebanese factions have approached us, requesting our support to extend our influence in Lebanon through them. However, our vision is different – we do not wish to repeat the past 50 years.”
The collapse of Assad’s government after five decades of authoritarian rule marked a dramatic shift, but its consequences extend far beyond Syria’s borders. In Lebanon, the fallout has emboldened extremist groups, flooded the country with weapons, and intensified political rivalries.
With Hezbollah weakened and weapons saturating the streets, the threat of renewed sectarian violence feels increasingly tangible. The collapse of Assad’s government has set off a chain reaction, spilling across borders and destabilizing Lebanon’s already fragile state.
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