Is the Inter-Afghan Meeting in Istanbul the Think Tank of the Doha Summit?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: On Thursday and Friday, November 10th and 11th, around 50 political activists and officials of the former government of Afghanistan gathered in a two-day meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, behind closed doors, to discuss the possibility of resuming the "Inter-Afghan negotiations. The meeting was held with the support of the Turkish government and at the initiative of the "National Dialogue Forum.” The Forum was established by Hekmat Karzai, Mostafa Mastoor, Zabihullah Ziyarmal, Nabila Mosleh, Idris Zaman, Ayoub Irfani, and Freema Nawabi, former officials of the Afghan government in 2022.

Seyed Rasoul Mousavi – Former Director General of South Asia at the IRI Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The purpose of the Istanbul meeting is to prepare the ground for the start of new political talks to resolve the Afghan crisis through the “resumption of intra-Afghan negotiations, which were stopped after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021.

It is said that “all political currents of Afghanistan,” including the Taliban government, have been invited to participate in this meeting. Political activists and women’s representatives from Kabul, Balkh, and Herat are also present. There are also reports that although the Taliban have not sent their official representatives to Istanbul, they have given the “green light” to participate in the next meetings.

In the list of participants, the following names are mentioned: Jafar Mahdavi, Abdul Qayyum Sajjadi, Fawzia Kofi, Shukria Barakzai, Nilofar Ayubi, Farkhunde Zahra Naderi, former members of the Afghan House of Representatives, Habib al-Rahman Hekmatyar and Alam Khalili, representatives of Golbedin Hekmatyar and Mohammad Karim Khalili, Jihadi leaders, Nasir Ahmad. Andisheh, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Switzerland, Bashir Ahmad Tinch, Seyed Anwar Sadat, Asila Wardak, Shah Mahmoud Miakhil, and Mohammad Alam Sa’i.

As of this note, no more information about the Istanbul meeting has been released. Considering the current situation in Afghanistan, the neighboring countries, and the international community (donors) who are interested in the developments in Afghanistan, based on the current data, it is probable to analyze the possible results of the meeting and examine its place in the processes related to Afghanistan.

The influential processes in Afghanistan’s development are divided into internal and external. One of the most important intra-Afghan processes is 1. National Resistance Front, 2. Afghanistan Freedom Front, 3. United Front of Afghanistan, 4. National Resistance Council to save Afghanistan, 5. Afghan Freedom Movement, 6. Green Trend (Amrullah Saleh) and 7. The Vienna Process (the political branch of the National Resistance Front) pointed out. Also, intra-Afghan processes are classified into two categories: international process (Doha) and regional process (Moscow and the meeting of foreign ministers of neighboring countries of Afghanistan).

Without introducing or explaining the goals and objectives of each of these processes, the important point is that any new mechanism to influence the future of Afghanistan will ultimately be a part of these two macro-processes within and outside Afghanistan. The published information about the Istanbul meeting also shows that if this meeting goes beyond the status of a one-time event and has long-term planning, it can be considered a part of intra-Afghan processes.

However, all intra-Afghan processes are somehow related to external processes, and they try to increase their capacity to influence Afghanistan’s future through cooperation with them. To better understand the direction of the Istanbul meeting, if we can answer whether this meeting’s decisions will be more in line with regional or international processes, we will have a more detailed analysis of this event.

Before addressing this question, it will be helpful to refer to the news recently published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar announced that Ali Ahmed bin Saif Al Thani, the country’s representative to the United Nations held talks with Rosemary DiCarlo, the Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations about having the fourth round of the Doha Summit. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar did not specify the date of this meeting but noted that the “use of positive developments” of the third meeting will be emphasized in the fourth summit in Doha.

It should be noted that the third two-day Doha meeting was held in August under Rosemary DiCarlo’s leadership. Taliban representatives participated in this meeting for the first time. Still, women, civil society, and political opponents of the Taliban were absent, which was widely criticized by international organizations and human rights activists. At the end of the meeting, DiCarlo stressed that this interaction does not mean normalizing relations with the Taliban and that the participation of people, including women, in decision-making is necessary.

Considering that the 4th Doha and 5th meetings of foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries will be held in Ashgabat soon, it is likely that each of the intra-Afghan processes will pay more attention to one of these meetings. According to the composition of the attendees, it seems that the Istanbul meeting is seeking to attract the opinion of the Doha meeting. It tries to convey its views to its organizers and act as a think tank for that meeting.

Finally, considering that the Doha process is held with extensive material resources and that the Istanbul meeting now plays the role of intellectual and theoretical support, unfortunately, the meeting of the foreign ministers of the neighboring countries did not pay enough attention to these aspects.