Mojtaba Babaei, Political analyst
Usually, the party that holds the White House loses the majority either in the House or the Senate in the midterms. A blue wave of Democrats challenged the red wave instead of vice-versa. The Republicans failed because their candidates were low-quality and their ideas were ineffective. In retrospect, most of the MAGA candidates denied the result of the 2020 elections, encouraging political violence over democracy, which made hesitant and independent voters choose Democrats over extreme Republicans despite Biden’s terrible economic record.
In the primaries, the Democrats backed extremist MAGA candidates in swing states, spending almost $40 million. This strategy said candidates of this spectrum would repel undecideds and independents and Democratic candidates would be able to defeat them more easily. As a result, this strategy proved to be both correct and profitable.
MAGA’s influence on independents and undecided voters in swing states caused Republicans to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in 2018 and the Senate in 2020. Due to this underwhelming performance, Republican leadership and its traditional spectrum are now thinking about confronting this spectrum, and there are voices opposing Trump’s candidacy for 2024.
The announcement of Trump’s 2024 presidential candidacy has sparked an intra-party challenge. The MAGA movement, which is led by Trump, is still trying to avenge Trump’s 2020 defeat against Biden. Hence, Trump will not be nominated for GOP in 2024 due to the repulsion of Trump and the extremist spectrum backing him. The GOP’s main strategy is to support Ron De Santis in the primaries against Trump and endorse a candidate who could beat him in the primaries.
As a result, pressure on Biden not to run in 2024 has dropped. However, Biden’s poor economic record, his age and health will still allow alternative options.
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