The Ceasefire In Nagorno-Karabakh Is Unlikely To Hold

 

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The war over Nagorno-Karabakh was already near a stalemate. While the attacking Azerbaijani troops were able to gain a few uninhabitated villages in the southern lowlands success elsewhere was scarce. They compensated for that by using loitering ammunition from Israel and Turkey against badly camouflaged Armenian tanks and by shelling civilians in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Overview map

Iran and Georgia have both large Azeri and Armenian minorities within their territories.

Detail map

Russia decided that it was the right time to intervene. Yesterday the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia met in Moscow. After 10 hours of talks they agreed on a ceasefire:

A ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh starting on 12:00 on October 10 has been reached after trilateral consultations in Moscow between foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Saturday.

"A ceasefire is declared to begin on October 10 at 12:00 with the humanitarian aim of exchanging prisoners of war and other captured persons as well as to exchange bodies of victims with the facilitation of the International Committee of the Red Cross and in line with its regulations," Lavrov stated early on Saturday citing a joint statement, signed by the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The details of the ceasefire will still have to be worked out. Both parties agreed to further negotiations should the ceasefire hold:

"The Republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and based on the principles of conflict settlements, begin practical negotiations with the main task of reaching the peace settlement as soon as possible," the statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry reads.

So far the ceasefire has held. Except for some minor violations the shooting and bombing has stopped since noon local time.

There was another very important point the parties agreed to:

"All involved parties have confirmed their adherence to the invariability of the negotiating process," the statement added.

The current negotiation format for talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan involves the OSCE Minsk group which consists of Russia, the U.S. and France. Turkey, which had urged Azerbaijan into waging the current war and is heavily supporting it, had demanded a place at the negotiation table:

The main goal of Turkey’s whatever-it-takes posture is to insert itself into the power equation in the Caucasus, in addition to extracting concessions from Russia in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts. Ankara might try to fully discredit the Minsk Group and replace it with a new settlement platform led by itself and Moscow.

This has now been outright rejected even by the government of Azerbaijan which Turkey supports.

Turkey's wannabe Sultan Erdogan is miffed about this. Today he again demanded a seat at the table:

The Russian mediated ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region cannot be considered a solution to the conflict, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has said, reaffirming its support for Baku.

The suspension of hostilities in the contested region, brokered in Moscow overnight, is “an important first step,” but it “will not replace a permanent solution,” Ankara said on Saturday.

Turkey “will continue to stand by Azerbaijan on the battlefield and at the negotiations table,” the statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry added.

Today Russia's President Putin had a phone call with the Iranian President Rouhani about the conflict on Iran's northern border. There is no report about a call between Putin and Erdogan. He will rightly perceive that as another rebuke. In consequence he will try to urge Azerbaijan into continuing the war.

But that will not change the outcome. Neither side of the war has the power to defeat the other:

Almost all of NK is located in the mountains (hence the prefix “nagorno” which means “mountainous”) and offensive military operations in the mountains are truly a nightmare, even for very well prepared and equipped forces (especially in the winter season, which is fast approaching). There are very few countries out there who could successfully conduct offensive operations in mountains, Russia is one of them, and Azerbaijan clearly is not.

Right now both sides agree on one thing only: only total victory can stop this war. While politically that kind of language makes sense, everybody knows that this war will not end up in some kind of total victory for one side and total defeat of the other side. The simple fact is that the Azeris can’t overrun all of NK while the Armenians (in Armenia proper and in the NK) cannot counter-attack and defeat the Azeri military in the plains.

Some Russians think that Erdogan wants control over the Caucasus and will risk a war with Russia for it. I do not believe so. Should Turkey try to intervene directly in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan it would indeed soon be at war with Russia. Wars with Russia have rarely ended well for Turkey. Erdogan knows this. He has neither the money nor the technology to win against a superpower. He may threaten war but will do his best to avoid a direct involvement.

That does not mean that the war is over. The Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev had promised his people a victory. His army has announced to have taken towns and villages which clearly are still in Armenian hands. If he now ends the war his position will be in serious danger.

I am therefore sure he will go for another round which, after a few days and several hundred more death, will end in another stalemate and with Russia again stepping in.