Will NATO follow the same way as the Warsaw Pact?

By Hamid Bayati

French President Emmanuel Macron criticized NATO on November 7, calling the current situation of the organization a “brain death”. Macron’s remarks once again led to heated debates regarding a possible collapse of NATO.

In an interview with the Economist, the French president criticized lack of coordination in NATO as well as the “unpredictability” of U.S. behavior.

Senior U.S. officials have taken similar approach toward NATO. On November 10, Robert O'Brien, the U.S. national security adviser, said, “I think the cracks of that have formed in the alliance are because we have members of the alliance that aren't paying their fair share, that aren't spending money on defense.”

During meetings with European officials and also at NATO summits, Trump and other senior U.S. political and military officials have repeatedly called for greater share of NATO costs by Europe. The U.S. has asked Europeans to increase their military budget to 2% of their GDP.

After taking power, Trump called NATO an obsolete organization that incur significant costs on the U.S. and said he would not support the alliance.

In addition, the United States, in line with Trump’s unilateral approach, does not consider any role or importance for its European allies in significant security and military decisions by NATO. Many NATO members have noticed Trump's negative attitude toward the alliance.

NATO formed in 1949, shortly after the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb. In the beginning, 12 countries joined NATO, including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Britain, and the United States. The number of countries joined NATO gradually increased to 29.  

A collapse of the U.S.-European military alliance, the intensification of disputes among NATO members regarding the recent Turkish offensive into Syria, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s purchase of Russian S-400 system, which rivals the U.S.–European military system, are the factors that have caused current chaos in NATO and may accelerate NATO fragmentation just like the Warsaw pact.

Crisis within NATO is headed for more intensification and its collapse seems almost definite.  One of the best evidences in this regard is the joining of two NATO members to the maritime coalition that the U.S. claims has formed to support safe shipping in the Persian Gulf.