Thursday, August 30, 2018
Zarif slams Netanyahu for ‘shameless’ threat of ‘nuclear annihilation’ against Iran
US Knows It Cannot Afford Direct Confrontation with Iran: American Analyst
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The “hawks” in the Donald Trump administration are fully aware that their country “cannot afford” any direct military confrontation with the Islamic Republic, an American political commentator said.
“…They (American hawks) know also, the US cannot afford a direct confrontation with Iran,” John Steppling, who is based in Norway, told the Tasnim News Agency in an interview.
“So I don't see anything happening right away,” he said, adding, “And Trump has a lot of other problems at the moment.”
Steppling is a well-known author, playwright and an original founding member of the Padua Hills Playwrights Festival, a two-time NEA recipient, Rockefeller Fellow in theater, and PEN-West winner for playwriting. He is also a regular political commentator for a number of media outlets around the world.
Following is the full text of the interview:
Tasnim: As you know, the US government’s hostility toward Iran has recently entered a new stage. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has formed a dedicated group to coordinate and run the country's policy towards Iran following US President Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Pompeo announced the creation of the Iran Action Group (IAG) at a news conference, naming Brian Hook, the Department of State's director of policy planning, as its head. What do you think about the group and its objectives and do you think that it would be able to reach its goals?
Steppling: It’s amazing when you think about it, that the entire narrative since the last election in the US has been about Russian interference in the political process. The whole story is fictitious but that hasn't stopped it becoming the main storyline for almost all mainstream media. And yet here you have an illegal group that has as its stated goal the overthrow of a sovereign nation. The contradiction is breathtaking, really. But Pompeo is a rabid Islamophobe and a Christian extremist. Still, this was going behind the scenes anyway, now it is out in the open at least.
Tasnim: The Trump administration recently threatened to cut Iranian oil exports to zero, saying that countries must stop buying its oil from Nov. 4 or face financial consequences. Washington later softened its threat, saying that it would allow reduced oil flows of Iranian oil, in certain cases. Since oil is a strategic product and countries around the world always demand it, do you think that the US is able to carry out this threat at all?
Steppling: This is an interesting question. How much will the NATO nations of Europe push back against the Trump decree? I don't know. Clearly, Germany, in particular, is very unhappy. But Europe basically functions as a series of vassal states to the US. They will do what they are told in the end. I think more likely is that this whole embargo is just too much trouble for the Trump administration. There is an interesting question looming in just how much of the Pentagon and CIA focus is on how Iran, how much on China, and how much on Russia. Each is a different problem from the perspective of the US I think Trump, personally, fears China the most. They have the economic upper hand. But the real crime for any official US enemy is independence. Look at China, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, the DPRK, Syria, and Cuba. Each rejects US imperialist aims. Each rejects Western capital and all those international financial organizations. That's the only crime any of them have committed.
Tasnim: Trump's threat is part of his walking away from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He also plans to fully reinstate anti-Tehran sanctions from November 4. In the meantime, the EU has vowed to counter Trump’s renewed sanctions on Iran, including by means of a new law to shield European companies from punitive measures. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas recently said Europe should set up payment systems independent of the US if it wants to save the JCPOA. What do you think about the EU’s role in reducing Washington’s pressures against Tehran and saving the deal?
Steppling: Yes well, this is again a question about how much spine Europe will show. And maybe I'm being cynical suggesting they won't show any, for after all a lot of money is going to be potentially lost. But this issue of payments raises the question of the power of the dollar vs the yuan or any other. And here China is, again, very powerful. The US wants to have some form of proxy conflict -- that's Bolton's style. And you can bet he wants a false flag regards Syria to justify more direct military action there. At the same time, the real fear is about China and its financial power. And I think Washington senses this shift toward Russia and China and Iran globally. The promise of a future, let alone a better future, lies in that direction and away from the US. There is no question the US is nervous if not desperate and the danger is that hawks like Pompeo and Mattis and Bolton are in positions of great influence and each is most happy when bombs are falling somewhere. And yet, they know also, the US cannot afford a direct confrontation with Iran. So I don't see anything happening right away. And Trump has a lot of other problems at the moment. I think we will learn soon if Trump really has any say at all in foreign policy.
Prominent Muslim-Russian Journalist Orkhan Djemal Killed in C.A.R.
By Ahmed Makhmoudov
Mankind Must Know: The UNO and Global Leaders are a Menace to Peace and Problem-Solving
Iran and the SCO: A Long Political Gestation
by Jacopo Scita
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was founded in 2001 by China, Russia and four central-Asian republics with the declared aim of promoting a framework of effective cooperation in politics, economy, security and regional stability, among many other areas of strategic interest. In 2017, India and Pakistan joined the SCO as full members, with the Organisation then accounting for “one fourth of the world’s GDP, 43 percent of the international population and 23 percent of global territory”, as Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a recent interview with the China Media Group.
Among the SCO observer members, the Islamic Republic of Iran has extensively lobbied for upgrading its status and obtaining full membership, for which Tehran officially applied in 2008. Ten years later, this long political gestation has not yet born fruit, although during the 2018 Qingdao Summit President Putin openly advocated Iran’s full membership in the SCO. In the meantime, the Islamic Republic has reinforced its political and economic ties with both Russia and China, with the latter remaining Iran’s top trading partner. This analysis argues that, besides the obvious economic and energetic factors, Iran’s attraction towards a full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation answers to a strong political rationale.
Today, the SCO attractiveness is often understood, along with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of regional economic and commercial integration. However, while the BRI encapsulates Beijing’s Euro-Asiatic grand strategy, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation acts as an institutional arm of the Chinese economic expansion, shaping a political environment that offers to Central-Asian countries a platform of multilateral cooperation under the umbrella of Beijing and Moscow. Therefore, the reasons why the SCO’s framework is particularly attractive for Tehran are summarised by the following political push factors: 1) joining a growing, Eastern-led process of regional integration 2) improving Iran’s global status 3) stimulating a spillover effect in the Middle East.
The political attractiveness of the SCO
The recent withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the following reintroduction of secondary sanctions towards Iran have once again exposed Tehran to the risk of being politically and economically isolated from the West. While the EU has officially advocated the ‘protect[ion of] European economic operators engaged in legitimate business with Iran’, China, despite Washington pressure, has effectively refused to cut its oil import from Tehran. Anyhow, the path seems clear: although the European Union appears genuinely committed to the preservation of the Iran Deal, its commercial and political autonomy remains highly affected by the historical ties existing with the United States. By the other side, Beijing – and Moscow – can offer Tehran a forceful alternative. As K.L. Afrasiabi and S. Mousavi, two leading Iranian researchers, recently wrote for LobeLog, the Trump presidency is pushing the Iranian government to make a paradigm shift and adopting an increasingly East-looking foreign policy.
Consequently, the full SCO membership appears a natural consequence of this new direction: by one hand, the Organisation provides an institutionalised multilateral framework that will reduce Iran’s reliance on bi-lateral agreements by increasing its regional integration. By the other, the political importance of the SCO is rapidly growing, suggesting the emergence – at least in the medium/long term – of a normative and institutional structure that can better compete with the US foreign policy agenda – which is, at this point highly divergent from that of Tehran.
Moving towards an East-looking strategy is Tehran’s forced plan B. Arguably, the adoption of resolution 2231 by the UN Security Council has been the height of process that, following the multilateral negotiations of the JCPOA, aimed to the progressive re-inclusion of Iran within the international community. As the election of Donald Trump has largely interrupted this process, Tehran has to find another arena – maybe less ambitious and extended, but definitively more receptive – where to consolidate and improve its status of trustworthy and cooperative actor. By sitting in a forum that includes some of the non-Western most important, rapidly growing actors as an equal member, Tehran could benefit in terms of political perception and leverage, both within and without the organisation.
In this context, Iran’s full membership in the SCO could even assume a powerful symbolic dimension. When the Islamic Republic officially applied in 2008, the process was frozen ‘by rules in the organisation’s charter that forbid membership for any country under United Nations sanctions’. As soon as the implementation of the JCPOA succeeded in 2016, UN sanctions were lifted, and Iran’s full membership could take a concrete path. Ergo, by joining the SCO, Tehran will reinforce its commitment towards an organisation that formally accepts and reinforces the rule of the United Nations as the sole entity allowed to impose international sanctions.
A third political factor that pushes Iran towards the organisation is the possible emergence of a spillover effect in the Middle East. Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of Political Science at Zayed University, has recently argued that ‘Iranian membership could be the catalyst for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council members requesting a seat at the SCO table’. With Turkey that is an organisation’s partner and the BRI already embracing East Africa and Europe, a major integration of the MENA region in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is likely to happen. A similar scenario could result in Tehran’s pivotal role in the growing Asianisation of Middle East, manoeuvring the inclusion of the region into the normative and cooperative structure offered by the Shanghai framework from a position of initial political advantage.
A (still) long political gestation
Despite the post-Qingdao jubilant diplomatic declarations, the SCO has not already granted Iran the full membership. By the Iranian side, political push factors are effective and attractive. However, in the context of uncertainty generated by the Trump presidency, shifting from a foreign policy agenda largely based on the normalisation of Iran relationship with the West – as was the one adopted by the Rouhani’s government since 2013 – to a narrowed East-looking posture is not obvious, nor immediate.
On the part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Tehran is a tempting but costly partner. If Russia shows strategic interests in the Middle East that overlap those of Iran, China attitude towards the SCO is more pragmatic and trade-related, accepting the natural tendency of states to bandwagon as long as the political cost of partnerships remains convenient. As the US-Iran confrontation continue to increase, Central and East-Asian powers will be demanded to take a clear side in the dispute: by accepting Tehran as a full member of the organisation, the room to manoeuvre may have to be reconsidered.
Jacopo Scita is a PhD candidate at Durham University, focusing on Iran’s foreign policy.
On corrupt narratives and choices
America, the tyranny of the stupid
This form of denial, “normalizing” the abnormal, exalting the idiot, mistaking clownishness for hidden genius, very hidden genius, is in itself a disease, a weakness, a failing and a threat to the survival of the human species.
US leaders aid and abet war crimes in Yemen
First, the so-called coalition committed a war crime. Willful killing and the targeting of civilians constitute grave breaches of the Fourth Geneva Convention. The US War Crimes Act defines grave breaches of Geneva as war crimes.
Following the August 9 bombing, three letters written by Congress members from the House and Senate requested investigations, explanations and briefings about US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.
And Democrat Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren wrote to General Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command (Centcom), asking him to clarify his assertion that Centcom cannot determine whether the United States provided assistance for coalition strikes resulting in civilian deaths.