Iran Sanctions to Push Oil Above $150

: Hardcore Hedge Fund

Hardcore Hedge Funds:

LONDON -- Clouds are gathering over the outlook for the oil market, as trade tensions and rising crude supply threaten to swamp demand growth, but some of the world’s most prominent energy investors are convinced the price will return to record highs.
The escalating trade war between the United States and China threatens global growth. The physical markets are already showing signs of strain as unwanted crude builds on ships and crushes prices for cargoes of oil.  

Aside from that, interest rates around the world are rising and the dollar is strengthening, which means emerging market oil buyers are seeing their import bill growing almost daily.

Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency have warned about the risk of trade disputes to global demand growth in their most recent monthly market outlooks.
Funds have cut their bullish bets on Brent and U.S. crude futures and options to their lowest in almost a year. 

Despite all this, prominent hedge funds such as Andurand Capital and Westbeck Capital are betting oil could skyrocket to $150 a barrel from around $75 now. 

The main driver is expected to be upcoming U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, which kick in November.

"Our view is that by November 4, we will have lost between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels (of output) a day. It is a very big number. That’s based on the view that the U.S. will allow a few temporary exception waivers .... Ultimately, we could see losses from Iran exceed 2 million barrels a day,” Jean-Louis Le Mee, chief executive officer of London-based Westbeck, said.

U.S. President Donald Trump in May walked away from a 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Tehran that he said was one-sided in Iran’s favor.
Trump has also blamed OPEC for the 45-percent rise in oil prices over the last 12 months and, in June, exchanged sharp words with Iran on the subject.

Pierre Andurand, who runs the $1.2-billion Andurand Commodities Fund and predicted the rise and subsequent crash in the oil price in 2008, responded on Twitter by pointing out OPEC’s spare capacity was at its lowest ever. "There is going to be a real issue,” he wrote, predicting prices above $150 per barrel within two years.

"We don’t sense a great deal of engagement yet from generalist investors. A few of them are starting to look at it now,” Will Smith, Westbeck chief investment officer said.
"This is going to catch everybody by surprise. Some of the specialists are bullish – including Pierre (Andurand), ourselves and Energy Aspects,” he said.

Aside from the risk to Iranian supply, Venezuela’s crude production, which has already collapsed as a result of economic crisis, could fall below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year, compared with 2 million bpd in mid-2017, Smith said.
Trump has said Saudi Arabia’s ruler King Salman had agreed to soon raise oil output by up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) but energy strategists have dismissed an abrupt increase in oil production as political "noise".

"This incident with the Saudis and the U.S. administration is just noise. You cannot order 2 million barrels like ordering a coffee somewhere,” Beat Wittmann, a partner at financial consultancy Porta Advisors, told has CNBC.

 Trump’s surprise move has pushed oil prices above $78 a barrel for the first time since late 2014. 

Oil prices jumped early on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia reported that it had cut its crude oil production in July compared to June. 

It remains unclear to what extent higher gasoline prices would hurt Republicans at the upcoming polls, or whether voters will connect Trump's policies to gas costs. However, the threat of elevated fuel prices comes as the U.S. trade war with its biggest trade partners risks putting upward pressure on consumer prices and denting Americans' view of the economy.