Tahir Mahmoud
A political divorce between the American and European imperialism appears no longer to be a theoretical possibility—it is now a fait accompli.
The only remaining questions are: how bitter will this separation be, and what shape will it ultimately take?
The intensity of this divorce will hinge on several key factors: the European Union's internal social cohesion, its ongoing economic underperformance, the extent of Russian pressure, and—perhaps the most unpredictable element—Donald Trump’s political ignorance.
Old habits, however, die hard. The European ruling elite remains deeply conditioned to align its strategic policies with Washington. But this model is rapidly deteriorating.
End of the Old Framework
What does this mean in practice? Under previous regimes in Washington, there existed a stable arrangement: European regimes primarily concerned themselves with managing the economic and political dimensions of the US-imposed global order, while Washington assumed responsibility for major geopolitical and security challenges.
Trump’s leadership—and the unpredictability it represents—has shattered this framework. The United States is no longer perceived as a reliable steward of western imperialism. As a result, European regimes are being forced to improvise a new global operating model for themselves, one shaped under intense external pressure: Russia’s military and strategic assertiveness, China’s economic ascendancy, and America’s disoriented, declining imperial influence.
Russia’s Strategic Calculus
Key figures within Russia’s ruling elite increasingly view the current global disorder as an unprecedented opportunity. Their aims are clear: solidify Russia’s status as a principal European power, gain broader international recognition, and avenge the humiliations of the post-Soviet 1990s.
Moscow’s victory—or even perceived victory—in Ukraine emboldens this ambition, and the pressure it will exert on the EU in the coming years is likely to be significant and sustained.
From Strategic Allies to Competitors
While the US withdrawal from its traditional leadership role in Europe is unlikely to render the two blocs globally hostile, it will trigger unprecedented security and economic competition between them.
This competition will compel the EU to recast itself as the “reasonable alternative” to an increasingly erratic America—especially under the circus-like governance of Trump and his ideological allies.
Whether European competition with the US translates into a political identity of the EU will be seen during the next US presidential elections (selection). If the European ruling elites take a staunchly pro-Democratic party approach it will indicate that they have not managed to formulate a cohesive independent global policy approach.
Beneficiaries of the Fracture
The main geopolitical beneficiaries of US-EU rivalry will be Russia and China, but several emerging middle powers stand to gain as well. Türkiye, Malaysia, South Africa, Brazil, and the Islamic Republic of Iran are particularly well positioned to take advantage of the new multipolar dynamic.
Türkiye, due to its geographic and geopolitical location, is most likely to reap the rewards of EU engagement, especially in the form of economic incentives and strategic alignment. Iran, by contrast, remains the most opposed of the middle powers. Both western blocs—despite their own internal divergences—remain united in their chauvinistic approach toward Tehran.
This hostility stems from the enduring sting of the Islamic Revolution which dealt a profound civilizational, economic, and political blow to western dominance in West Asia. The blow is still ongoing.
Yet, unlike many other states in the developing world, Iran possesses a mature and, most crucially, an independent policy apparatus. Its governance structure rooted in principals makes it a vital ally for other middle powers and for China and Russia.
Breaking the Economic Mold
The post-Cold War US economic model, in which non-western countries were relegated to the role of cheap labor providers and passive markets for western consumer goods, is increasingly unviable.
Both the EU and the US continue to cling—naively—to this outdated system, even as many developing countries are taking deliberate steps to dismantle it, willingly accepting short-term hardship in pursuit of long-term sovereignty and prosperity.
The outdated political-economic worldview of the transatlantic powers means their competition for markets in Africa, Latin America, and Asia will become increasingly intense.
Given the EU’s relatively more refined political class, Europe is likely to present itself as a provider of industrialization and infrastructure solutions. In contrast, the Trump-led US is expected to pursue more extractive, primitive transactional deals—such as those seen in Ukraine—centered on resource extraction.
New Frontiers of Contestation
This growing rivalry between the US and the EU will turn Africa and West Asia into battlegrounds of influence, where political, military, and economic maneuvering intensifies. Each bloc will seek to undermine the other’s initiatives in these regions, both of which are critical to shaping the emerging multipolar world order.
For middle powers, the key to maximizing gains from this rivalry lies in adopting strategies that prevent a renewed US-EU alignment on military or ideological grounds. Exploiting their divergence—without triggering a unified western response—will be essential.
Unexpected Benefits at Home
Ironically, the geopolitical divorce between the US and Europe could end up benefiting ordinary citizens in both blocs.
For Americans, a reduced global military footprint may mean fewer taxpayer-funded military adventures. For Europeans, disentanglement from the American war machine could allow greater focus on domestic social and economic challenges.
It should be kept in mind that the most prosperous European countries like Switzerland, Austria and until recently Finland and Sweden, were able to establish strong socio-economic systems because they adopted neutrality and stayed away from American jingoism.
The Rocky Road to Multipolarity
Still, the transition to a multipolar world will not be smooth. Before stability emerges, the current global order must pass through a period of turbulence. History has shown that a new order does not just suddenly emerge with no costly struggle towards it.
West Asia offers the clearest example of this dynamic. As the frontline of resistance to western imperialism, developments in the region lay bare the dysfunctionality of the existing order—marked by dictatorships, apartheid, and warlordism, all fostered under US-imposed structures.
The Turkish-Iranian Balancing Act
To dismantle this legacy and forge a truly post-imperial regional order, it is crucial to resist illegitimate western meddling with resolve and coordination. A key part of this strategy involves managing Turkish-Iranian relations with care.
Any serious confrontation—whether political, economic, or military—between Ankara and Tehran would be a setback for both, and a gift to their adversaries. So far, both countries have demonstrated commendable maturity in avoiding US-Israeli attempts to pit them against one another.
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