By S. L. Kanthan
These are purportedly the words of Henry Kissinger, the notorious war criminal and Nobel Peace Prize winner, who greatly influenced American foreign policy.
India must not forget this dark side of the American establishment, even though Joe Biden claimed that US-India relations are the most consequential of this century and Donald Trump has repeatedly met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a great leader.
The US pivot to India is undergirded by three American interests – containment of China, cheap labor, and a vast consumer market. The US has no real allies, only narcissistic and imperialist interests.
Modi was one of the few foreign leaders invited to the White House during the first month of Trump’s new administration. Overall, Indians also have very positive opinions about Trump and the US in general.
There are many reasons why the US enjoys significant soft power in India – immigration, tech jobs, the success of Indian-Americans, the popularity of the English language, Western funding of Indian think tanks, American investors in Indian corporate media, tensions with China, and so on.
However, India, a rising global power, must be careful not to turn into the “Ukraine of Asia” – an expendable geopolitical pawn of the US Empire.
Let us be blunt: The US wants to control every aspect of India. A few months ago, the US ambassador to India told an Indian audience that there is no such thing as strategic autonomy.
Ominously, this warning came just before the US staged a color revolution in Bangladesh and overthrew Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid, who was not perfect but had done a commendable job in reviving the economy.
The reason was simple: PM Hasina refused to allow a US military base in her country.
Similarly, any objective geopolitical analyst could see how the US staged coups in Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the past few years. Incarcerated Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted by a soft coup after blatant US pressure, his party was banned, and he was sent to prison.
How about that for American-style freedom and democracy? His crime was to be too friendly to Russia. As for Sri Lanka, the party in power was deemed to be too pro-China. Of course, the US could not allow such independence.
History also reveals that the US was never a true ally of India.
While the Indian foreign policy establishment is wary of China’s influence in India’s neighborhood, there is almost no outcry about American meddling in India’s sphere of influence.
Indians are too forgiving about the fact that, in 1966, the US/CIA likely assassinated Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and the top nuclear scientist Homi Bhabha.
All through the Cold War, the US sabotaged India as a punishment for the latter’s non-alignment philosophy and friendly relations with the USSR.
The US also encouraged India to start a war with China over Tibet, but then President JFK refused to provide any military assistance at this critical moment. Later, when Bangladesh sought independence, the US sent warships to the Bay of Bengal to threaten India, which was able to repel the Americans only with the help of the Soviet Union.
Fast forward to today, India has not really benefited from its close relations with America.
When the Cold War ended, American corporations salivated over China and India to be exploited for cheap labor in manufacturing and services respectively.
However, the difference in these two countries could not be starker. While China focused on mastering technologies and creating indigenous champions, Indian elites were content with using American products.
The result could be seen in Chinese tech giants such as Huawei, BYD, ByteDance (parent company of TikTok), and 135 other companies in the Fortune 500 list – compared to just 9 from India.
In Artificial Intelligence (AI), the most disruptive technology of this century, China owns 60 percent of the patents, while India accounts for less than 1 percent.
In numerous other industries – electric cars, solar panels, batteries, smartphones, semiconductors, robotics, cloud computing, biotech, space travel, fighter jets, warships, etc. – China has far surpassed India.
Why has India fallen behind? Because we follow the American economic model of financialized capitalism; and we feel safe with dependency on the American dollar, American technology, American media, American medicine, American investment, and so on.
India also allows its foreign policy to be dictated by the US more than necessary. For example, we could be buying cheap oil and gas from Iran; and we could have started the Chabahar port project a long time ago. However, India is too deferential towards US sanctions.
Similarly, India joining the QUAD and other “Indo-Pacific” agreements to contain China or refusing to join the Belt and Road Initiative only promotes the US’ geopolitical machinations of divide and rule.
Right now, the US benefits from India in multiple ways – relatively inexpensive Indian labor in the software industry, ultra-cheap manufacturing labor for companies like Apple, a giant consumer market of growing middle class, Indian startups being open to American investors, Indian government’s purchase of US weapons, and India being a potential geopolitical tool to contain China diplomatically, economically and militarily.
However, American soft power will not last long in India. First, the US will soon restrict immigration from India, especially for H1-B tech workers. The racist American “alt-right” has already started demonizing Indians.
Second, the US will start containing India as the latter continues to grow and become more independent. The US may allow Indians to become CEOs of Google and Microsoft, but the US will not tolerate Indian companies that compete with Google and Microsoft.
The US maintains its global hegemony not because of equal partners but through a network of vassals.
Even Europeans are finally waking up from their hypnotic slumber. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said that Europe must work towards independence from the US.
Looking at the big picture, we are witnessing the inexorable cycle of history in which another empire is on the verge of collapse.
However, unlike the last few centuries, the US will not be replaced by another empire. Instead, a multipolar world is emerging to democratize geopolitics and geo-economics. Organizations like BRICS will provide a new paradigm of cooperation and development for the Global South nations.
Also gone will be the extraordinary privilege of the US dollar, which underpins American tyranny of sanctions and endless wars.
Five centuries of Western domination of the world is coming to an end. This will be the century of Asia, Eurasia and Africa. India should strategize accordingly.
S. L. Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst, columnist, blogger, author and podcaster based in India.
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