The Axis of Resistance faces its most critical test as it strives to maintain unity across West Asia’s battlefronts and prove its strength against the US-backed Israeli military, paving the way for a regional shift that could redefine its future.
The Cradle
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This observation mirrors the events unfolding in West Asia as a direct test of the durability and strength of the Axis of Resistance.
Squares unit
7 October not only marked the first anniversary of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood but also a turning point where the “Unity of Fronts” theory transitioned from an abstract idea to a concrete strategy. Over the past year, this concept has taken shape through the “support fronts,” with the ongoing conflict serving as a testing ground for its effectiveness.
With the string of high-profile assassinations across the spectrum of the Resistance Axis, the alliance has faced the severe challenge of proving its cohesion and ability to operate across multiple battlefronts in a coordinated effort, with the unification of these arenas becoming crucial to its broader regional vision.
Unifying the fronts
Since 8 October 2023, when Lebanon’s Hezbollah initiated operations in support of Gaza, the Axis of Resistance sought to communicate a clear message: that any attack on one front is an attack on all fronts.
This principle, central to the Unity of Fronts, means that the occupation state cannot handle each battlefield in isolation. The Israeli strategy of fragmenting the conflict and treating each front as a separate entity is rendered ineffective when the Axis coordinates its responses across multiple theaters of war.
The Axis of Resistance is up against one of the most powerful military entities in the world, supported by a superpower. Israel, with its advanced technological and military capabilities, is backed by a coalition of powerful western states, including nuclear-armed ones that have long held sway over the global political order.
In light of this overwhelming military might, the Resistance Axis knows it must respond with an alliance that, while disparate in its components, can collectively pose a serious threat. Only through a unified front can the Axis hope to effectively challenge such a formidable adversary.
The Unity of Fronts reflects a broader regional vision that the Resistance has been promoting for years. The concept is not just a military strategy; it represents the embodiment of a comprehensive regional resistance project.
This vision aims to achieve deterrence and counter the influence of Tel Aviv and its allies in the west and West Asia. The past year has showcased what different factions of the resistance are capable of when their efforts are coordinated.
Each party within the alliance brings unique strengths, and each is tasked with specific roles based on its capabilities. Together, they form a unified force with the shared goal of shifting the balance of power in the region.
Crunch time for the Axis of Resistance
Despite the resilience shown by the Axis over the past year, the movement now faces a significant test. If Israel succeeds in separating the various fronts – halting the support fronts while continuing its operations in Gaza – this would call into question the feasibility of the resistance’s regional vision.
In such a scenario, the Axis Resistance would be left vulnerable, its strategy of unified fronts revealed as inadequate in the face of Israel’s tactical maneuvering – such as the pager terrorist attack that preceded the bombardment of Beirut and the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
However, the Resistance understands that its success hinges on proving the viability of the Unity of Fronts. Victory in the current conflict depends on forcing Israel to abandon its strategy of fragmentation and accept that it cannot separate the various battlefields.
The alliance must bring the occupation state to the point of despair, where it realizes that the cost of trying to divide the fronts is too high. This challenge, particularly in Lebanon, will be decisive in the ongoing war.
The role of the US-Israel alliance
At a press conference on 1 October, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre, expressing Washington’s position, stated:
We understand … the Israelis will be conducting limited operations to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure that would be used to threaten Israeli citizens. And this is in line with Israel’s right to defend itself and – and its citizens and safely return their – their civilians to their homes.
This sentiment was further reiterated by the US State Department, which also voiced its support for Israel’s targeting of Hezbollah, describing the need to “weaken” the resistance movement’s capabilities as essential to Israeli security.
The US is acutely aware that the current war is not merely a localized conflict but a pivotal moment for a new regional order. Should Iran and its allies in the Axis emerge politically victorious, it would validate a regional strategy that directly challenges the west’s objectives in West Asia.
Such a shift would have profound strategic implications, as it would alter the balance of power in the region and invite greater involvement from Washington’s global competitors, particularly Russia and China. A victory for the Axis of Resistance would be seen globally as a win for anti-western forces, significantly diminishing US influence in the region.
As Jackie Haughey noted in the Israeli newspaper Maariv:
If the Israeli army had been alone in the mission, the Iranians would have had another matter, but the United States has constantly stood by its side, and is responsible for financing the war, continuing ammunition supplies, and providing diplomatic support. In practice, this is an Israeli-American battle, or American-Israeli, and the Israeli army is the implementing contractor, but Washington has a central role.
The path to victory: What the resistance must do
For the Axis of Resistance to secure victory and prove the effectiveness of its regional strategy, it must ensure that Israel cannot divide the conflict’s different fronts. Tel Aviv’s broader regional escalation, which includes its aggressions against Yemen and Lebanon as well as its preparations for potential action against Iran, only reaffirms the necessity of maintaining a unified resistance.
The Axis must crystallize its vision for the Unity of Fronts, ensuring that no front is left isolated. Victory in Lebanon and a continued postwar presence will be pivotal in actualizing its long-term regional project of liberating the region from occupation.
The ongoing confrontation between the resistance and Israel has already resulted in several significant achievements. First, in ground confrontations, the resistance has successfully raised the cost of Israeli operations by thwarting raids and destroying numerous Merkava tanks.
This, along with the heavy casualties inflicted on Israeli soldiers, illustrates the resistance’s strategy of attrition. While Israel may achieve limited tactical and territorial gains, the resistance is focused on ensuring that these advances are costly and unsustainable, undermining Israel’s ability to maintain control.
Additionally, the resistance has launched hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory, with major cities such as Haifa coming under near-daily fire. These strikes have demonstrated the resistance’s capability to deliver blows deep within Israel, showcasing its capacity for prolonged, sustained conflict. This expansion of the targeting range has put further pressure on the occupation of military and civilian infrastructure.
Moreover, the resistance has caused widespread “displacement” of Israeli settlers in the north. Despite Israel’s aim of restoring stability in northern occupied Palestine, the reality on the ground has been the opposite. As more settlers flee, the Israeli government finds itself increasingly under pressure, struggling to achieve its declared objectives.
Discipline and leadership in testing times
Despite intense military and diplomatic pressure, the resistance has managed to maintain coordination and discipline within its ranks, even in the face of significant challenges, such as the targeted assassinations of key leaders.
These strikes have not led to the disarray that Israel might have hoped for; instead, the resistance continues to operate with high levels of coordination, demonstrating its ability to restore leadership and maintain operational effectiveness.
The overall sense of security within Israel has also been shaken. Recent surveys show that a significant portion of the Israeli population no longer feels safe, with many even considering emigration due to the political and security situation.
This erosion of internal confidence is a significant achievement for the resistance, as it further destabilizes Israel from within – a testament to cognitive warfare imposed on the occupation state.
Perhaps the most critical accomplishment of the resistance has been its ability to sustain operations despite major setbacks. Continuing the fight in the face of such trials speaks volumes about its resilience and determination. Overcoming these obstacles will be decisive to its ultimate success.
These achievements, unfolding under immense pressure, exemplify the Axis of Resistance’s ability to adapt, persevere, and advance its regional vision. The conflict has evolved beyond a simple military struggle, becoming a pivotal contest over the future of West Asia.
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