The emergence of a trilateral alliance puts the US' hegemony at risk

F.M. Shakil 

Source: Al Mayadeen English

Russia, Iran, and India are now trading and cooperating economically at a historic rate, thanks in part to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Russia, Iran, and China are rapidly forging a newer anti-US bloc that is likely to support efforts to thwart US and Western isolation tactics. The joint efforts will eventually help Iran regain its former glory as an Eurasian trade hub, with the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) coming online.

Iran, China, Russia, and even India would all benefit from INSTC, which would shorten the trade routes and cut down on costs while giving them options. For India, this would mean avoiding Pakistan and entering the markets of Central Asia, where Chinese companies are quickly expanding their footprint. For Iran, China, and Russia, it would mean having more options to better protect, if not eliminate, themselves from sanctions imposed by the West, spur economic growth, and advance their de-dollarization process.

The primary motivation for the international conflicts of this century will be the attainment of military and economic dominance, as was the case during the Cold War. In this ongoing conflict, Iran, China, and Russia are endeavoring to enhance their standing by capitalizing on the interconnection that is developing between them. The troika considers US supremacy in various regions as detrimental, if not limiting, to its own strategic goals. Iran, for example, seeks influence in the Middle East precisely because of the US-Israel collusion against the innocent Palestinian population.

Conversely, the geopolitical objectives of China and Russia transcend national borders. What these countries want is a multipolar global order as an alternative to unipolarity. Based on their collective choices, they believe such a system would benefit their interests and boost their growing enterprise.

The new bloc appears to threaten Washington

The US elite views this close friendship as a disastrous collapse of the Western sanctions regime. According to Washington, China has been providing commercial backing for Russia's defense industrial base, while North Korea and Iran have supplied Russia with military drones and ballistic missiles throughout the protracted war of attrition in Ukraine.

Defense Secretary and Pentagon commander Lloyd Austin voiced worries in late April about the increasing cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. He stated that the US was closely monitoring this trend and found it concerning.

Austin said, "Looking at what Russia is doing, they have turned to North Korea, Beijing, and Tehran because of the damage that Ukraine inflicted on Russia's land forces." He asserted that Iran still supplies Russia with drone technology, capabilities, and real drones. He said, "That has affected Russia's capacity to bounce back from the harm that Ukraine has inflicted on it."

Additionally, he stated that as North Korea strengthens its relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is "becoming more confident." Austin stated at a House Armed Services Committee hearing, "This is something that we're going to have to watch." "It's something we will need to continue monitoring in the future." Gen. CQ Brown, the senior US military officer, also shared Austin's worries.

In April of this year, Dana Stroul, the Director of Research at the Washington Institute, testified before a joint hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, highlighting concerns over China, Russia, and Iran working together.

These expanding linkages in energy, trade, infrastructure, and defense, she claimed, run the danger of making Iran, China, Russia, and other countries more resilient to challenges and changes to the rules-based international order.

"This order is advantageous to the United States. Consider Iran's strong argument for wanting to join the BRICS group. This alliance has the potential to play a key geostrategic role in addition to promoting economic cooperation, she added.

INSTC is already functional

Russia, Iran, and India are now trading and cooperating economically at a historic rate, thanks in part to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Russia's exports to India surged by 4.7 times in the fiscal year 2022–2023. The activation of INSTC has significantly contributed to this expansion by reducing the net cost of transportation services along the Eastern route by 50%.

The INSTC's three branches are all up and running, linking its numerous member nations. The eastern, trans-Caspian, and western sections of INSTC are doing initial business. These roads connect different member nations, and each has unique infrastructural features and viewpoints. By rail and vehicle, the Western route of INSTC links Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran before transporting commodities to India and the Persian Gulf nations. The amount of cargo via the Western route climbed by about 60% in 2022 and is continuing to expand steadily this year. Between January and August of 2023, the volume climbed by 16% compared to the same time in 2022.

What is the Russian perspective on the INSTC?

The media has quoted Dmitry Murev, the CEO of RZD Logistics, a leading Russian logistics company that operates the INSTC, as saying that trade and economic cooperation between Russia, Iran, and India have reached historic levels. According to him, the creation of the INSTC allowed Russia to become one of India's top three trading partners in 2023 for the first time.

Murev claims that the INSTC's activation was one of the key elements that led to the 4.7-fold rise in Russian exports to India in the 2022–2023 fiscal year. Murev states that his company's solid partnerships with top players in the transport and logistics sectors of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and India have reduced the net cost of the end-to-end transportation service along the eastern route of INSTC by 50% since August 2022.

The Rasht-Astara railway line is one of Iran and Azerbaijan's most important infrastructure projects, and it will be the subject of an intergovernmental agreement between Russia and Iran in May. The introduction of this line will be a big step forward and contribute to fully realizing INSTC's potential, according to Murev.

Given the lack of border crossings, Murev said that the INSTC's trans-Caspian route could be able to halve delivery times. He added that Kazakhstan is currently a member of the most developed eastern route of the INSTC, together with Turkmenistan and Iran. This route is critical for the transit of goods from Russia to India, the Persian Gulf countries, and back. He asserts that RZD Logistics is prepared to begin shipping via the Chabahar port upon completion of the nearby train network's development.

Pakistan also declared its intention to join the INSTC and began the accession process after realizing the organization's potential benefits. During his speech at the International IT Forum in Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia, Pakistan's ambassador to Russia, Muhammad Khalid Jamali, cited Russian President Vladimir Putin's State of the Union address, in which he invited Pakistan to join the International Transport Corridor and stated that Pakistan has agreed to join it in principle.

The ambassador emphasized the strong bilateral relations between Pakistan and Russia while mentioning their cooperation in international forums like the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). "We have requested assistance from our Russian friends in joining the BRICS," he said.