Morteza Makki-Expert of European issues
Since 2015, when David Cameron, the former Prime Minister of the Conservative Party, raised the issue of leaving the European Union in a referendum, England entered a new political environment different from previous years. The majority vote of the British people to leave the European Union in 2016 made David Cameron, who is in favor of remaining in the European Union, replace Theresa May. During her three-year rule, Ms. May tried to manage a smooth and low-stress exit from the European Union. However, the trend in favor of a hard exit from the European Union, led by Boris Johnson, made Theresa May’s efforts regarding a soft exit from the European Union not materialize, and she was replaced by Boris Johnson in 2019.
Although Boris Johnson managed to reach an agreement with Brussels to leave the European Union, this agreement created serious challenges in relations with the European Union after the Brexit. The Covid-19 crisis, then the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine and the political scandals that Johnson left behind created a deep split in the Conservative Party. The polls showed that Boris Johnson and his party are in a difficult situation, and the continuation of Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister could result in a severe defeat for this party in the upcoming elections. Johnson was forced to step down from the position of Prime Minister by setting new records in governing in the political arena of the United Kingdom, and a tough competition was formed among the candidates to succeed Johnson in the conservative party. In the end, it was Liz Truss who was able to eliminate 10 rivals in the intra-party competition and was elected as Prime Minister a few days before the death of Queen Elizabeth.
Liz Truss made many promises in the intra-party race to become prime minister, one of the most important of which was to cut taxes. But after Truss managed to attract the support of the majority of the members of the Conservative Party, he faced stubborn opponents in following up on his promises.
A 45-billion-dollar tax cut to help Britain’s poor as the country faces four-decade low inflation has led some to worry that Ms. Truss’ promises would impose a large budget deficit on the London government. Therefore, the majority of Conservative members opposed the plans of Truss. As a result of these objections, Truss was forced to remove one of her loyal aides from the UK Treasury and chose Jeremy Hunt, the most critical Conservative politician, to replace the outgoing Chancellor of the Exchequer. But the election of Jeremy Hunt could not stabilize Ms. Truss’s fragile position, and she faced opposition voices to resign from her position. Truss knew that it was not possible to realize her economic plans with these oppositions, and she therefore resigned from her position, recording the shortest life of a prime minister in the history of England.
With the resignation of Ms. Truss from the position of Prime Minister, the competition within the party has started to choose her successor, and this competition will increase the gap within the Conservative Party. Also, whoever replaces Truss will face difficult challenges in terms of reducing inflation, managing the energy crisis, gaining people’s satisfaction and widespread strikes and demonstrations. Mr. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor Party, has announced that the conditions in England are such that the Conservative Party is unable to govern the country and there is no other choice but to hold early elections. Meanwhile, if early elections are held, according to the results of the polls, the defeat of the Conservative Party will be certain. The distance between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party in the polls is more than 20 percent. Earlier, in the last days of Boris Johnson’s prime ministership, his opposition conservatives announced that their attempt to oust Johnson is only for the purpose of the Conservative Party losing by a small margin to the Labor Party and the credibility of this party will not be damaged by a heavy defeat in the upcoming elections.
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