Mahmoud Fazeli – Analyst of international affairs
At a time when lack of trust has been shaped in political cooperation, and under a situation where NATO has long sought to expand its parameters by adding political dimensions to the coalition’s defense, Turkey is considered as a barrier against Russia and a protector of the treaty’s eastern borders. Erdogan, who has been improving Turkey’s position from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, from the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf for several years, has sent ships to declare Turkey as an independent state, believing it can extend from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, from Europe to Asia which needs the NATO security umbrella, to play a more active role.
He said: Erdogan by saying that Turkey is one of the five countries that provide the most assistance to NATO operations, seeks to play a greater role. Turkey, with regard to the dispute over Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, purchased by NATO member Turkey from Russia, has repeatedly stated that the purchase has been done and the agreement has been made upon and there is no room for any dispute, but the United States claims that S-400 anti-aircraft missiles are dangerous for NATO jets. By buying those weapons, Ankara forced the United States to withdraw Turkey from the plan to build a joint F-35 fighter.
The United States expects the S-400s not to be activated at all, and Turkey’s relations with Russia, which has also spread to the defense arena, be reconsidered, Turkey not to return to the issue of the blue homeland in the eastern Mediterranean, not to prevent the proposed solution of “two states” in Cyprus and not cause this issue to remain unresolved, and avoid enmity with the Kurds in Syria. The Turkish side wants to find a middle ground on the S-400s that satisfies both sides, an end to the sanctions against itself, returns to the F-35 program, in the war against the PKK receives help, and support for the YPG be stopped; but there are no signs that the positions of the two sides are close to each other.
The United States supports Syrian Kurds affiliated with YPG militants. Turkey considers YPG as a terrorist group and a subset of the PKK. Erdogan refuses to allow the United States to arm the Syrian Kurds to fight ISIS and supply them with weapons. For Washington, the Kurds are the lever with which they can put pressure on Erdogan.
In their first meeting, Erdogan and Joe Biden reached an agreement, emphasizing the importance of cooperation on regional issues. The leaders of the two countries agreed that Khalifa Haftar had no place in Libya’s future. Both countries supported the UN-recognized rule of law in Libya and agreed to strengthen a political solution in Libya.
Turkey and the United States share a common view on Afghanistan. An agreement has also been reached on the security of Kabul International Airport by Turkey after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Turkey’s hosting of peace talks between Afghanistan and the Taliban. According to Turkey, with the development of the existing plan, Pakistan and Hungary will cooperate with Turkey in securing Kabul Airport. Pakistan’s participation in the project is essential to persuade the Taliban and Hungary to participate in receiving EU financial and intelligence support. The participation and responsibility of the other two countries in this plan will to some extent prevent the Turkish soldiers from being left alone and insecure in a difficult geographical area such as Afghanistan. Of course, Turkey has made a lot of investments in Afghanistan since 2001, when it took over NATO civilian operations, and now it wants to get the results of those investments; but the agreement reached between the United States and the Taliban and the ongoing negotiations between the Taliban and the Kabul government determine the conditions for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The Taliban claim that Turkey could become a partner in Afghanistan in the future, but must now leave as part of the NATO occupation.
When the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, its strategic project in Asia is jeopardized. When US troops withdraw completely from Afghanistan on September 11, Washington hopes to control the situation through diplomacy, intelligence and security forces. To achieve this, the presence of an allied element in the field is vital.
On the role of NATO in the Black Sea, Erdogan said at a press conference after meeting with Biden: Turkey’s current foreign policy is based on keeping NATO as far away from the Black Sea as possible in order to avoid escalating tensions with Russia. According to him, the NATO alliance should play an active role in all areas from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea and from Europe to Asia, in all areas that need a NATO security umbrella. Those remarks indicate Turkey’s willingness to move closer to the Washington axis, given the US political efforts it has made over the years to influence NATO in the Black Sea. Another difference between the two sides is Turkey’s approach to the eastern Mediterranean. Greece and NATO member Cyprus feel threatened. It may be right in border disputes with Turkey, but NATO and the European Union have repeatedly criticized Erdogan for his policies.
The meeting between Erdogan and Biden was faced with reactions in Turkey. Dolat Baghcheli, the Leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, claimed that it was not yet clear how and to what extent the US president saw Turkey as an ally. Are the PKK / YPG among those partners or not? The US Secretary of State has rudely said before the NATO summit that Turkey has not acted as a whole NATO ally and that the S-400 missile defense systems and its actions in the eastern Mediterranean are worrying. On the one hand, they trade with terrorists and on the other hand, they boast of strategic cooperation with Turkey. They falsely resorted to the Armenian genocide, defending the July 15, 2016 coup, and hosting Fethullah Gulen, the leader of the group, in Pennsylvania.
Erdogan, who previously had a direct relationship with former US President Trump, is now taking the first step toward a similar relationship with Biden. Erdogan hopes to establish a bilateral channel with Biden and make changes in his favor in important cases; but how successful his efforts will be will take more time. Erdogan is determined to strengthen the channels of dialogue with the United States at all levels, to improve bilateral relations and to make it a benefit for his country. He even claims that he has opened new gates with the United States and has agreed that he will not have any unresolved issues with that country and will try to build more constructive relations with his NATO allies. Although he expects to resolve major differences with the United States in a timely manner, those statements appear to be merely a unilateral insistence by Turkey on improving relations. Biden’s response to the invitation Erdogan extended to him to travel to Turkey, stating that “the traffic of my programs is compressed”, clarifies the situation to some extent.
After meeting with Biden, Erdogan maintained his position on the missile deal with Russia and showed no signs of withdrawing from the S-400 deal with Russia. The consequences of the disagreement between Turkey and the United States on the S-400 missile will undoubtedly be a serious obstacle to improving relations between the two sides, and the meeting between Erdogan and Biden, for the result of which the Turks were very hopeful, has practically not helped overcome the existing mistrust.
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