The dire warning was made by Rear Admiral John Gower, who until December 2014 served as the Assistant Chief of Defense Staff (Nuclear &Chemical, Biological) at the Ministry of Defense.
Setting out his thoughts in a European Leadership Network paper, entitled Implications for United Kingdon Nuclear deterrence should the union fail, Admiral Gower argues that unless Scotland were to agree to “lease back” the Faslane naval base to the remaining UK, Trident would either have to be relocated to an “allied” country or be scrapped altogether.
“A Scottish secession would therefore generate fundamental operational and fiscal issues for the UK’s nuclear deterrent”, Admiral Gower argues.
Admiral Gower is at pains to point out that besides the Faslane naval base (which hosts the vanguard-class submarines), the entire infrastructure supporting the UK’s submarine-based nuclear capability is based in Scotland.
These include the warhead loading site at Coulport and nearby testing ranges, which are all based in Scotland or Scottish waters.
According to Gower, alternative sites in the UK, notably Milford Haven in Wales and Falmouth in Cornwall, are out of the question as both are heavily industrialized and in the case of Milford Haven it has a relatively large population.
Meanwhile, Devonport (in south-west England), where the vanguard-class submarines are refitted, would require extensive engineering work and is at any rate far too close to the city of Plymouth.
Admiral Gower considers basing the Trident submarine fleet overseas, notably at King’s Bay in Georgia (USA), where British submarines go to pick up missiles.
He also considers Ile Longue in Brittany (France), where the French nuclear fleet is based, before dismissing both ideas as “highly speculative”, “controversial” and “legally fraught”.
Admiral Gower’s scholarly contribution to the debate comes amid intensifying interest in the fate of the UK’s nuclear weapons capability in the event of Scottish statehood.
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