Monday, December 16, 2024

What Next for Russian Military Bases in the Mediterranean after Syria Collapse?

Alwaght- The first aftermath of the takeover of power by the armed opposition in Syria and collapse of the main stronghold of Russian presence in West Asia and North Africa developments impacted Russian military bases in Syria. Reuters reported, citing a Syrian security official, that Russia has begun withdrawal of its military forces and equipment from Hmeimim airbase in the coastal Latakia province.

This comes while there are unconfirmed information about an agreement between Moscow and the leaders of the armed groups about stay of two Russian military bases on the Syrian coast. 

Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim air base in Syria are essential facilities for maintaining Moscow's influence in West Asia and the Mediterranean to Africa.

The Russian news agency Interfax reported on Thursday that Moscow had begun direct contacts with the political administration of the opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), citing Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov.

Bogdanov also said that Moscow's aim was to maintain its military bases in Syria to continue the "fight against international terrorism" in the country.

"These two bases are still there. No new decisions have been made at the moment," Bogdanov was quoted as saying by Interfax.

"They are there at the request of the Syrians to fight ISIS terrorists, and I continue to adhere to the view that the war against terrorism and the remnants of the Islamic State [ISIS] group is not over yet," he added.

He further maintained that "continuing this battle requires collective effort, and in this regard, our military presence and the Hmeimim base have played an important role in the all-out war against international terrorism.”

The Russian foreign ministry had previously announced Moscow’s intention to remove HTS from the “list of terrorist organizations.”

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia has its own factors and it removes this organization from its terror blacklist according to them. 

Citing unnamed sources in Moscow, Europe and the Middle East, Bloomberg reported that the Russian defense ministry believes that an informal understanding has been reached with the HTS to allow the Russians to remain in their Syrian bases, but warned that the situation could change amid the instability in Syria.

In contrast, British Channel 4 reported that its sources “saw a convoy of 150 Russian military vehicles moving on a road and concluded that the Russian military may have reached an agreement with the opposition to allow an orderly and safe withdrawal from Syria.”

Tartus naval base

Tartus naval base was built in 1971 according to an agreement between Hafez al-Assad, the father of the ousted President Bashar al-Assad, and the Soviet Union. It remained the only permanent military base for Russia in the Mediterranean.

The facility is a strategic complex and the only Russian ship repair and maintenance center in the Mediterranean, through which the Russian fleet can sail without having to pass through Turkish-controlled straits in Mediterranean waters to reach the Kremlin's bases in the Black Sea.

According to Bloomberg, Russian forces have used the port to support their security interests in Africa, and military presence there would allow them to expand their political and economic influence in Africa and restore some of their Cold War-era authority on the continent.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, many Soviet military facilities closed their doors, but Moscow maintained its naval base in Tartus, although it reduced its capacity and missions.

This situation changed in 2010. At the end of 2015, Russian media reported that 1,700 Russian soldiers were stationed at the base, but the exact number of Russian troops at the base remains unclear.

On January 18, 2017, Russia and Syria signed an agreement that allowed Moscow to expand and use the naval facility in Tartus for 49 years free of charge and to exercise sovereign jurisdiction over the base.

The Russian military held naval exercises in early December, shortly before the militants’ lightening offensive.

The exercises involved 1,000 troops, 10 ships, including two frigates and a submarine, and support vessels, as well as 24 aircraft, stated the military. 

Hmeimim airbase 

Since the Russian military intervention in 2015 in support of Damascus against a range of takfiri terrorist groups, Hmeimim airbase has been at service of Moscow. Hmeimim is connected by sea to the port of Tartus, about 60 kilometers to the south.

Russia has been heavily guarding the Hmeimim base, deploying advanced air defense systems such as the S-400.

By the end of July, the Russians had deployed “22 combat aircraft and about 15 attack helicopters and drones” to the base, says Pierre Razoux, academic and research director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.

It is not yet clear whether the Russian military’s Hmeimim base has been reduced in size since Ukraine war. However, experts believe that there will be a significant reduction in the level of equipment compared to 2022.

Images taken on Friday showed two AN-124 aircraft, one of the largest cargo aircraft in the world, with their noses open at the Hmeimim airbase. 

The two heavy transport aircraft are said to have arrived at the airport to load equipment.

In recent days, images of the S-400 air defense systems leaving Hmeimim were published in the media.

Russia-Libya relations chill

It was thought that after Syria, one of the first and main choices for relocation of the Russian forces and weapons in the Middle East is Libya. But according to media, the Government of National Stability of Libya led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh is moving to scale down relations with Moscow after its clear shift of position and welcoming collapse of Bashar al-Assad government in Syria, something appearing to be a result of home and foreign pressure. 

Before the recent developments in Syria, relations between Tripoli and Moscow had improved significantly, especially in recent months, with officials of Libyan government visiting Russia more than once.

After Moscow reopened its embassy in Tripoli in February, on June 3, the Russian embassy announced the official start of consular activities in Tripoli. The Kremlin also announced plans to open a consulate general in Benghazi this year, continuing the trend of relations boost. 

However, after recent Syrian developments, government of Dbeibeh rushed to welcome fall of al-Assad, with observers attributing this position shift to the pressures from internal Islamist groups and Western countries

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