Crescent International
Three policy frameworks are emerging within the global Islamic movement, both inside and outside the Resistance Axis.
These can be categorized as the desired outcome, the most probable scenario, and the least favorable option.
Before assessing the Resistance Axis’ available strategies, it is essential to understand these frameworks.
The Desired Outcome (Least Likely)
This scenario envisions a pragmatic arrangement mediated by Turkey and Qatar, with Hamas playing a potential role as an intermediary as well.
Under this framework, the takfiri groups in Syria will establish a functional relationship with the Resistance Axis, allowing for limited economic, political, and logistical cooperation.
Such arrangement would enable Iran to maintain its logistical corridor to Lebanon.
This outcome is improbable due to the ideological rigidity and lack of political wisdom demonstrated by Salafi-rooted takfiri groups, as seen in their conduct from Algeria to Pakistan.
Most importantly, it is quite clear that takfiri groups lack their own political agency for facilitating the establishment of this desired policy framework.
Most Probable Scenario
Syria devolves into a fractured "militia-land," akin to Libya, where rival takfiri factions engage in constant infighting.
Takfiris ruling Damascus today were notorious for infighting when they ran Idlib.
Syria is much more complex than a single province (Idlib).
This instability would be exploited by regional and international actors—Turkey, Qatar, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—to consolidate their influence in Syria.
Worst-Case Scenario
The most unfavorable outcome involves a prolonged war of attrition among political and religious factions, escalating into a conflict resembling Sudan’s protracted chaos.
This could spill over into neighboring countries like Iraq and Lebanon, further destabilizing the region.
Each of these scenarios presents unique challenges for Islamic Iran as it navigates the complex dynamics in Syria, seeking to preserve its interests and influence while managing regional and global pressures.
Resistance Axis: Crisis is Opportunity
As the most probable and worst-case scenarios in Syria become increasingly likely, they present unique opportunities for the Resistance Axis.
Political analysis must be grounded in history and refer to precedents in a deductive manner.
Islamic Iran's ability to turn the crises in Afghanistan and Iraq to its advantage demonstrates its strategic acumen.
Similarly, the unfolding situation in Syria offers Iran and its allies another chance to capitalize on the evolving situation.
The distinctiveness of Syria’s evolving crisis lies in its capacity to keep Israel under sustained political, economic, social, and military pressure.
While many people are fixated on understanding regional developments in West Asia simply via bombastic headlines which paint Israel as a regional hegemon, a broader overview suggests a different picture.
Israel's reputation as a formidable power has been greatly overstated.
Its economy is in shambles, its military demoralized, and its international standing has made it into a pariah regime.
Nowhere was this more evident than in its disastrous attempt to invade Lebanon, a campaign that resulted in military stalemate and political defeat.
It further underscored the limits of its military capabilities.
The absence of a centralized political order in Syria enables Iran to establish decentralized local resistance force, creating persistent challenges for both Israel and the US.
Israel invading and occupying significant parts of Syria with US blessing, has provided Iran with regional legitimacy to pursue this policy.
Tehran has repeatedly shown its proficiency in cultivating organic and popular allies capable of mobilizing the masses, as seen in Yemen, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Engaging Israel in Syria will demand minimal investment from Iran as the existing situation creates an organic eco-system for mobilization against Israel and its enablers.
Further, an increasing number of Sunni Muslims, both within and beyond the Arab world, recognize that a takfiri takeover of Damascus clearly benefits the US and Israel.
This shift provides Tehran with broad support in its confrontation with Israel compared to 2011–2015, when much of the Arab world overlooked Israel's role in Syria.
Today, even staunchly anti-Iranian observers acknowledge this reality.
Whatever tactic Iran chooses to adopt, one thing is clear, it will aim to keep Israel in a state of instability keeping the zionists between a rock and a hard place.
If apartheid Israel and its western enablers choose to aggressively respond to Iran and its allies, they will inadvertently lock themselves in a vicious cycle of conflict.
If they play “smart” and choose a political route of regional sabotage, their adversaries will still press ahead.
Ongoing genocide in Palestine and Israel’s continued landgrabs, fuel the region’s anger and hate for Israel and the US.
This means that there will be no respite for Washington and the zionist regime in West Asia.
The regional war is simply entering a new phase.
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