Lebanon pager blasts: Israel's cyberterrorism signals a new warfare strategy

Unable to achieve a strategic victory against Hezbollah, Israel has resorted to a miniaturised form of weapons of mass destruction and collective punishment in the north

Ameer Makhoul

A man watches a video showing a wounded man due to explosions hitting locations in several places around Lebanon on 17 September 2024 (AFP)

The explosion of hundreds of communication devices belonging to members of Hezbollah, including pagers and handheld radios, has resulted in at least 30 deaths and 4,500 injuries, including more than 400 in critical condition in two waves of attack, according to Lebanon's health ministry.

The blasts took place nearly simultaneously on Tuesday over a wide geographic area in the Lebanese capital, its suburbs, and in Syria.

They were followed by a new wave of explosions on Wednesday, including at a funeral procession for victims of the initial pager explosions. Soon after, Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant declared the start of a "new phase" in its war on Gaza, in which "the centre of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces".

These deadly attacks by Israel serve as a painful wake-up call for Hezbollah and Lebanon as a state and have several implications.

Israel aims to change the existing balance of deterrence, sow doubt and disillusionment within Hezbollah's ranks, and drive a wedge between the group and Lebanese citizens through mass civilian casualties.

The planned attack on devices is reminiscent of a sabotage operation targeting centrifuges in Iranian uranium enrichment reactors. Israel had managed to access a chip factory outside of the country and plant explosives in the devices that it later detonated once they were installed in the Iranian reactor.

Israel has been preparing for war on the "northern front" for years, particularly since the end of its 2006 war on Lebanon. Israel assumes that war with Hezbollah is inevitable and necessary to alter the security and demographic realities in the north.

This war could break out within weeks or months - and possibly even expedited to avoid the difficulties of launching a ground invasion during the rainy winter season in what is likely to be a long-term military campaign.

New warfare model

Israel's attack on Hezbollah's communications network has been described as a "tactical triumph" and "victory" for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who vowed to expand the war to secure the northern border, where more than 60,000 Israelis fled their homes amid rocket attacks from Hezbollah.

By blowing up devices in Beirut supermarkets, moving cars and homes, and in densely-populated civilian areas, Israel has decided to adopt cyberterrorism and its collective punishment policy in Gaza as part of its military strategy against Hezbollah.

It has signalled that its imminent war will be waged against the entirety of Lebanon and its people, that it will not distinguish between Hezbollah's fighters and Lebanese civilians, and will target all indiscriminately.

Furthermore, since Israel's security cabinet has voted to expand its war to the northern front, it would not be surprising if Israel launches a massive strike on Hezbollah and Lebanon to deter any retaliation and fundamentally change the rules of engagement and the balance of deterrence.

After weeks of reports alleging that US and Israeli officials were working on easing tensions with Lebanon to prevent an all-out war, Israel's recent move has belied any claims of de-escalation.

In addition, Israeli claims of calm following mass protests may be misleading in the context of a more tense and escalating situation.

Domestically and politically in Israel, the explosions have created a kind of national consensus around Netanyahu's government, temporarily sidelining the internal conflicts within the government, especially between the defence minister and the prime minister.

At present, there are no indications that the strategic reality has changed: the balance of deterrence and terror campaign remains in place through other means and on an escalating scale.

It seems that Israel has concluded that its ability to achieve a strategic victory and regional dominance through conventional means is dwindling. Instead, it has resorted to a miniaturised form of weapons of mass destruction and wide-scale targeting of Lebanon.

This operation may serve as a temporary alternative to an all-out war of destruction, the outcomes of which Israel cannot guarantee.

In short, we are witnessing a new and evolving model in Israel's military strategy.

The escalation on the northern front with Lebanon may result in the side-lining of the ongoing genocidal war on Gaza and, thus, the side-lining of the Palestinian cause.

Ameer Makhoul is a leading Palestinian activist and writer in the 48 Palestinians community. He is the former director of Ittijah, a Palestinian NGO in Israel. He was detained by Israel for ten years.