How Yemen’s military gains curb separatist tendencies in Oman?

By Mir-Javad Mirglui Bayat

A few days ago, an expert working for Aljazeera network offered an analysis about the recent retaliatory attacks on Abu Dhabi by the Yemeni army in which he raised a point that elicited a strong reaction from Omanis over both the print media and social networks.

In part of his analysis, the expert alleged that the drone and missile operations against Abu Dhabi could have been carried out from any point in the great desert known as Rub' al Khali and its surroundings, where there is less oversight by relevant governments. He also mentioned border areas between Yemen and Oman as one of the possible sites where these attacks could have originated from. This was the main point that elicited a strong reaction from analysts in Oman.

At the moment, it is not possible to either confirm or deny this allegation and there is no definitive data to prove whether this analysis is true or false. However, the point worthy of analysis here is why the government of Oman could have possibly turned a blind eye to such attacks, if they were actually carried out from its own soil or from somewhere close to its borders. Now, we are going to assess this theory by taking advantage of historical events that have taken place in Oman during the past century.

The present-day Oman was known as the Sultanate of Oman and Dhofar up to about 50 years ago. Throughout its history, every time the name of Oman was mentioned, the province of Dhofar was not necessarily considered as part of this territory. Dhofar is the southernmost province of Oman with almost 500 kilometers of common border with Yemen. This unique province has its own religious denomination, language, history, culture, traditions and even different climatic conditions compared to other parts of Oman. The collection of these elements has given the province an identity, which is different from other parts of Oman.

After the leftist groups came on top in Yemen in the late 1960s and South Yemen was formed as a country, the separatist forces in Dhofar saw their chance to see the new country as their strategic depth. Subsequently they believed that it was time to start reorganizing and taking measures against the territorial integrity of Oman. They were fed-up with underdeveloped state of this region under the rule of Sultan Qaboos’ father, Said bin Taimur. This historical event clearly proved that whenever a wave of separatism sweeps through the region, it is highly possible for Dhofar to be affected by it. Of course, the current situation in Dhofar is now much better than 1960s and 1970s, but the aforementioned identity elements have still a powerful presence in this region. For example, when Cyclone Shaheen made landfall in Oman in late September last year, the people of Dhofar rushed to help people living in northern parts of the country. At that time, Omani media gave special coverage to this issue, trying to show that the current Omani nation-state has been recognized by the people of Dhofar and this is why they were helping their compatriots in northern provinces. Anyway, despite the improved situation in Oman and weakening of separatist tendencies, the region is still a hotbed for secessionism.

In order to remain untouched by the war in Yemen, Oman has established a politico-military belt along its border areas with that country. Al-Mahrah province in the east of Yemen and Hadhramaut are two provinces where Oman has been able to establish good influence. The tribes that live in these two provinces, especially those who dwell al-Mahrah province, are also present in Dhofar and have many commonalties. Oman’s allies in Yemen oppose partition of Yemen and have taken negative stances on plans concocted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia and have made harsh remarks on those plans. The UAE, which is trying to create a new country in southern and eastern parts of Yemen through strengthening the Southern Transitional Council, has already crossed a major red line set by Oman. On the other hand, the latest advances by the UAE-backed militants in those areas of Yemen, which are controlled by the country’s Ansarullah movement, have galvanized Oman into action. It is clear that the formation of the Southern Transitional Council will sweep secessionist waves into Oman. This may cause the people of Dhofar and al-Mahrah to seek a new identity for themselves, which would pose major challenges to the government in Muscat. Dhofar is an important province for Yemen and the government has made huge investment on the provincial infrastructure there, because its underground resources as well as its agricultural potential and ports are of vital importance to Muscat. As a result, it is likely that Oman would support any direct or indirect measure that would weaken the Southern Transitional Council and prevent partitioning of Yemen.

As a result of the above facts, it is understandable why it is possible for Oman to turn a blind eye to certain developments that are unraveling in its uninhabited areas in Rub' al Khali desert or some other border areas with Yemen.

Mir-Javad Mirglui Bayat is an expert on political developments in Oman.