Are Russian-Israeli Agreements in Syria Expiring?

Alwaght- With its hundreds of thousands of victims and grave consequences to the regional security and even international stability, the Syrian crisis is described as one of the world's most complicated crises in the 21st century. Intense geopolitical rivalry and involvement of regional and international actors are among the factors that have prolonged the devastating crisis in the past decade. As the Syrian battleground victories over a litany of foreign-backed terrorist militias brought back peace and security to a majority of Syrian regions, the continuation of this trend can help close the main channels of the interferences of the foreign supporters of terrorists in the Arab country.  

Today, in addition to the sharp decline in the role and influential power of Western countries, led by the US, in Syria's developments, the noose is also being tightened on interventionist regional actors like Turkey and the Israeli regime. The course of developments promises end to foreign occupation and central government's full control over the whole country. Once full Syrian sovereignty is regained, the era of easy Israeli and American violation of the Syrian territories would end. 

As part of moving toward this stage, earlier this week, Russian and Syrian fighter jets launched joint drills over Syria's Golan Heights, part of which is occupied by the Israeli regime, setting off the alarm bells to Tel Aviv about end of its decade-long leeway to launch aggression in Syrian depth whenever it wished as the latter was busy fighting terrorist factions. 

On January 24, the Russian ministry of defense announced in a statement that the Russian and Syrian military pilots were conducting a joint air patrol mission, with participation of Russian Sukhoi-34 and Su-35 bombers, A-50 early warning and control aircraft, as well as MiG-23 and MiG-29s of the Syrian air force, along the Golan Heights and the Euphrates River over northern Syria. 

The ministry added that the pilots of two countries practiced attacks on air and ground targets in a training area. 

The exercises bear messages to the Israeli regime about the future of its operations in Syria, especially as the area of military exercises of bombers and warning planes covered the Golan Heights, namely the ceasefire line with the Israeli regime, from which Israeli airstrikes against various positions in Syria were conducted in recent years. Confirming this message, the Times of Israel news website reported that Israeli officials are trying to figure out why Moscow has changed its policy toward Tel Aviv. 

The Israelis over the past decade have supported the terrorist groups in Syria by conducting military and intelligence operations to weaken and partition their traditional foe Syria and to check power gain of Iran-led Axis of Resistance in which Syria plays as a strategic juncture. But when they began to see the terrorists sustain defeats and the Resistance camp establish a presence along the Israeli borders, they rushed to persuade Moscow to entertain their security concerns and considerations. The key demand from Russia was toleration of the Israeli aggression on Syrian territories and striking of positions of the Resistance forces. 

In the summer of 2018, for example, Russian media reported an agreement between Moscow and Tel Aviv to withdraw heavy weapons of the Syrian army and allies up to 85 kilometers from the occupied Golan Heights border. 

But today, as Damascus drifts towards the final stages of the crisis, the past Moscow-Tel Aviv relations and agreements on Syrian developments undergo changes. 

The Israelis and Russia are at stark contrast when it comes to strategic interests and goals in the Syrian crisis. While Russia is considering restoring stability to Syria and a long-term presence in the country by expanding its sphere of influence through soft power boost, recurring Israeli attacks under various pretexts render Syrian people and government discontented with long-term silence of Russia about Israeli aggression, especially that the Israelis constantly run a media propaganda to crack the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance by bragging about coordination with the Russians ahead of the attacks. 

After recent attacks on Latakia in eastern Syria, which were driven also by economic interests and port rivalry, Syrian media raised questions about Russian passivity to the Israeli strikes and triggered Syrian public discontentment with Moscow. With this in mind, the Russian-Israeli agreements over Syria seem to be moving to expiration. The joint air drills over Golan Heights tell the Israelis of this inescapable reality. 

This is not everything, however, and coincidence of the joint air exercises with the surging tensions with the West over Ukraine pushes the media to suggest Moscow has decided to escalate confrontation with the West in more than one front. 

The move is also a message to the Israelis about Russian strategic interests in eastern Syria. In recent years, Russia signed long-term economic agreements with Syria, mainly focusing on gas and oil investment and one allowing the Russians to expand and use naval facility at Tartus port for 49 years. 

Also in the Russian interests is a last week agreement with Syria that would see expansion of economic interactions between Russian and Syrian ports. Damascus, on the other hand, is keen to welcome further tourists to Latakia to restore an industry once key to its economy. Definitely, checking the Israeli attacks is the prerequisite to advancing and implementing such agreements.