About three years ago Donald Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal. He subsequently imposed escalating punitive sanctions on Iran. Even the coronavirus pandemic didn't change this. In response, Iran progressively stepped out of its JCPOA constraints on uranium enrichment and other nuclear activities.
But Trump’s successor is talking of stepping back into the deal; beginning with 3 gestures. So perhaps Iran will reverse its withdrawal.
Iran has said 'not enough'; the US must verifiably end the whole ‘economic terrorism’ of Trump-era sanctions, or else it will have failed to exercise due diligence in practicing its international obligations.
The Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has argued that the US and the EU troika, violated all of their JCPOA commitments, and therefore don’t get to set conditions for Iran.
A new team with old demands
US President Joe Biden has installed a new team of diplomats with the task of undoing and repairing the damage done during the Trump era. US violation of the JCPOA is but one of those damages!
But the Biden team has been demanding Iran’s full compliance with the JCPOA as a precondition to renegotiating that deal, lifting US sanctions on Iranian individuals, removing US objection to an IMF loan to Iran, and facilitating humanitarian trade with Tehran.
There is one thing pressing the Biden administration to make an urgent move, a recent law passed by the Iranian parliament: “The Strategic Act of the Islamic Consultative Assembly to Remove Sanctions”, which obligates the government in Tehran to block snap inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, from February 22, if its partners to the JCPOA do not implement their own commitments under the deal.
The aim is to restore a balance in commitment by the various sides to the deal. Lifting the sanctions placed on Iran would ultimately save the deal, which was originally meant to limit Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.
Enough is enough
A letter was sent to the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, by Iran's Permanent Representative to that Vienna-based Organization, Kazem Qaribabadi. In it he clarified the reasons for the December law.
When Iran saw it can’t trust the American side, it moved towards the implementation of the law enacted by the Iranian Parliament. According to this law, in addition to increasing the amount of enrichment and introducing new centrifuges, Iran has practically withdrawn from the implementation of the Additional Protocol. The responsibility for reaching this point rests with the United States because it can easily return to the JCPOA. If it returns, Iran will also go back to the deal.
Hassan Beheshtipour, Political Analyst
Legal status of withdrawal from additional NPT protocol
The point about the Additional Protocol is snap visits from any place at any time. That is, they took away all our intelligence. We should not have accepted it at all from the beginning.
The inspections have been so rigorous that after the JCPOA was reached, Obama himself said the inspections that were put in place for Iran are a system that is unprecedented in the history of the IAEA.
We need to stop our voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol. First, it is legal to withdraw, because it was voluntary; and second, it had to be approved by the parliament, which it wasn’t.
And third, they took all our intelligence. So this is a very important thing that is, unfortunately, being done with a delay.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has urged President Biden to return to the JCPOA and lift all of Trump era sanctions, pointing out "Surrendering to law is not a fault…..Do not shy away. What is bad is surrendering to force."
JCPOA framework, specific and unchangeable
Also, in a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he said of the nuclear deal: it is “a document approved by the Security Council and the product of the long efforts of Iran and the six largest countries in the world….the JCPOA has a specific framework and is unchangeable”.
It is impossible to enter new topics into the JCPOA. This Rouhani stressed, in light of the fact that even Europeans have been trying to rewrite the deal, to get Iran to scrap its basic defenses—its ballistic missile programme!
Now they are making demands beyond what we agreed on, that we do not necessarily discuss at this point. They demand to discuss Iran's missile range and Iran's regional influence. There's a lot to talk about. You have to first prove your goodwill and then come back for talks. But the fact is that Iran has a natural influence in the region. How can they ask us to reduce our influence? We need to stick to the facts on the ground. We’re not afraid. The Islamic Republic has reached such a point of reliance and strength that it’s not afraid of negotiations.
Jalal Sadatian, Iran US Affairs Analyst
JCPOA obligations met by Iran
We negotiated and implemented the JCPOA once, and there is no reason to return to it again with preconditions. In our view, the JCPOA is a multilateral agreement in which we fulfilled our obligations but did not benefit as much. What the Parliament has done is a clear signal that we’re ready to go back to the pre-JCPOA era, and even reconsider inspections, and that we can leave aside dealing with the IAEA with goodwill.
Saeed Ajorlu, Editor in Chief, Mosallas Weekly
So far, the US and Iran have been stuck in a negotiating stalemate. According to some diplomats, disputes about who must make the first move are absolutely counterproductive; instead the process needs to be carefully synchronized.
It seems that this step-by-step mechanism, meaning that they take steps and Iran acts accordingly and takes measures in 5 gradual steps, in addition to implementing the Parliament’s passed law is sufficient, and some time can be given. It’s not too necessary to refuse to allow in the inspectors under these circumstances.
Jalal Sadatian, Iran US Affairs Analyst
US in no position to make demands or set condition
The United States is not in a position to set conditions. It has violated and broken its promise.
First, all sanctions must be lifted, not on paper, but in action. Therefore, we must verify it. So some gentlemen are wrong when they say that we will return immediately after the Western side returns. It’s not so.
Sanctions must be lifted and we must verify them. For example, we have to be able to do our business, import or export. When we exported our products, the money has to return to the country. Well, this takes time.
We have to make sure that the sanctions on the banks are lifted.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
To look at Biden’s 3 step plan to resolve the dispute over the nuclear deal, the US said it would accept the EU high representative’s invitation for discussions with Iran and the five other signatories of the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
At the same time, Biden rescinded Trump’s claim to have reimposed all UN sanctions on Iran via a JCPOA "snapback" mechanism. Other signatories, and the UN Security Council at large, had denied the Trump move had any validity anyway, as the US was no longer party to the deal.
The US has also dropped special restrictions on Iranian diplomats in New York imposed by the Trump administration, which limited them to the Iranian mission, the ambassador’s residence, the airport and a six-block radius around the UN. They will now be subject to the limits that were in force before the Trump era, a 25-mile radius around midtown Manhattan.
Now, it’s our turn. They have played all their cards and have no trump card to play. That’s why they resort to such excuses. The UN Security Council rejected the snapback of sanctions, with an overwhelming majority of 13 member states voting against it back in September. They want to sell this to us as a privilege. They say they have brought in a woman of Iranian descent to the State Department. This indicates that their hands are now empty.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
Both countries have signaled their readiness to revive the agreement since Joe Biden’s inauguration, but have differed on who should make the first move.
I think we should wait for their practical action. Not that we should take practical action. Our practical action was the parliament’s law, which I think we should continue to implement. We have to speak the language of the world, and we’re doing just that. If we talk to them gently, their demands will become more outrageous.
Saeed Ajorlu, Editor in Chief, Mosallas Weekly
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has previously signaled a conditional openness to talks with Washington and the other parties over reviving the deal. And he appreciated Biden for acknowledging that Trump's UN sanctions claim "had no legal validity." BUT he demanded:
"US unconditionally & effectively lift all sanctions imposed, re-imposed or re-labeled by Trump. We will then immediately reverse all remedial measures."
“…Our remedial measures [expansion of Iran’s nuclear activity in recent years] are a response to US/E3 violations. Remove the cause if you fear the effect …We’ll follow ACTION w/ (with) action.”
European efforts to save JCPOA
How did European signatories to the deal support Iran after Trump's violation of the accord? It is true, Europe has been trying to save the nuclear deal.
It did vow to protect Iran's economy against the US sanctions. But none of its initiatives have so far produced a satisfactory result.
After the US departure from the nuclear agreement, Europe undertook 11 commitments to safeguard Iran's JCPOA interests in areas such as oil sales, insurance, aviation, shipping and industrial cooperation. But none have been fulfilled so far.
The [Western] European signatories to the deal have failed to install a working mechanism that could bypass the US banking stranglehold for repatriating Iran’s oil revenues. Who could blame them for trembling at the thought of infringing US sanctions; Trump was a bully.
Now, one can say that the U-S withdrew from the nuclear agreement. A madman like Trump left the deal, a move which the Americans did not approve of themselves. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Democrats, Mr. Biden, and his team are committed to maintaining international standards and saving their face. Mr. Trump acted like a bully on many other issues. For example, he deactivated Obamacare. He built a wall along the southern border to prevent Mexican migrants from coming to the U-S. He even abolished the NAFTA pact. He withdrew from so many international agreements. His madness didn’t only affect the JCPOA.
Jalal Sadatian, Iran US Affairs Analyst
Iran fulfilled all its JCPOA commitments, until the US pullout. The IAEA has verified this 15 times, at least. Have the Western parties to the deal fulfilled ANY of theirs?
The Americans didn’t commit to what they signed. When we asked the Europeans why they didn’t intervene, they said we are a group of private companies that are influenced by the United States; the government here is small and powerless.
If the government does not have the power, why did it sign and guarantee the agreement? In my opinion, Europe is completely influenced by the United States and can only play a decorative role in the negotiations or in some cases, promotes the US position.
Saeed Ajorlu, Editor in Chief, Mosallas Weekly
If Iran's experience of the first chapter of the JCPOA is any indication of what might happen in the future, is it logical for Iran to participate in another round of negotiations?
On the other hand, could the situation get any worse than it is right now for Iranians, after the inhumane sanctions that the Trump administration imposed on them?
We created our own problems. For example, what does unbridled inflation have to do with sanctions? Or … market liquidity that has escalated multifold? The fact that some people take liquidity to the housing market one day and to the dollar and gold coins market the other doesn’t have anything to do with sanctions. We have to think for ourselves. How can they sanction a country with 15 neighbors? So the problem is that many of these problems can be solved if we believe in ourselves. But, of course, sanctions also create problems.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
Iran will resume honoring the nuclear deal in full only after the US has removed all sanctions on Tehran in a practical and verifiable manner. Because as Ayatollah Khamenei has said: "The domineering order has always looked for excuses against the Islamic Revolution. One day it’s human rights, once vilifying theocracy, once the nuclear issue and once regional issues. They're all excuses. The key concern is that Iran won't give in to their domination,” Mere words don't help. This time only action!
A new agreement is possible as far as Iran is concerned, provided it also respects Iran’s right to nuclear technology--for peaceful purposes.
Negotiation is a diplomatic tool and can never be left out. Negotiations are a tool that can be useful or harmful. If done appropriately, it is excellent and helps break deadlocks, like the JCPOA which was the first international undertaking after World War II to resolve a crisis through dialogue. In this way, negotiations are not good or bad in nature; it depends on what, how, and for what purpose we negotiate and who are the negotiating parties.
Hassan Beheshtipour, Political Analyst
Sanctions are the problem, not the JCPOA
We can’t change the subject. The problem isn’t what to do to take the US back to the JCPOA. The problem is the lifting of the sanctions. It does not matter to us whether the United States returns or not, let the Europeans figure that out. The United States has violated Security Council Resolution 2231. Why don't theEuropeans protest? The Security Council must act against it now and issue a resolution. Not only did they not issue a resolution, they didn’t even make a statement or give an implicit warning. This is the environment we need to negotiate in.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
Reflecting on government obligations with regard to the additional protocol of the NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty), Tehran’s decision to suspend voluntary implementation of that Protocol would not mean that Iran intends to expel the UN nuclear watchdog’s inspectors.
The Additional Protocol allows intrusive inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities. And that intrusion, which allowed in spies and sabotage, is deemed unacceptable. Anyhow, Iranian Parliament adopted its December Urgency Law, with its 22 February deadline for other parties’ recommitment.
In fact, we failed to act during this time. According to paragraphs 26 and 36 of the JCPOA, which deal with issues related to non-compliance, we had to retaliate immediately after they failed to meet their obligations. We had to stop fulfilling our obligations right away. But we did not do that. We waited so long that Trump left the JCPOA. Their excuse was that Iran's missile industry and Iran's presence in the region should be included in the JCPOA. Besides, they wanted to extend the restrictions indefinitely.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
The UN nuclear watchdog head Rafael Grossi arrived late Saturday February 20th in Iran for talks on the eve of Tehran's deadline for US sanctions to be lifted.
This was his 2nd trip to Iran in the past year.
Grossi said on Sunday February 21st that it had struck a deal with Iran to cushion the blow of steps Tehran plans to take this week that include ending snap inspections, with both sides agreeing to keep “necessary” monitoring for up to three months while Iran stops cooperation with the agency until sanctions are lifted.
Meaning that Iran will record the activities of its nuclear sites via the installed CCTV cameras and will store them for up to 3 months during which Iran will hand over the footage at the request of the IAEA but will erase them for good after 90 days.
In opposition to this agreement between the administration and the IAEA, the Iranian parliament passed a vote on referring the administration’s deviation from the parliament’s bill to the judiciary on February 22.
Leader expresses concerns
On the evening of Monday February 22nd, the same day of the parliament’s move, in a meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts, the leader of the Islamic revolution stressed his concerns over escalation of such differences, which could be interpreted as divide in the country.
I heard today that there is a disagreement between the administration and the parliament with regard to what the administration has done and how the parliament has interpreted it.
This disagreement should be settled.
They should sort it out; they shouldn't ignore or intensify such differences as it might seem there is division.
Such disagreements are solvable and should be solved.
After all, the administration deems it necessary to follow the law passed by the Parliament. This law is a good law and must be precisely followed. The two sides should cooperate in order to implement the law.
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Leader of The Islamic Republic of Iran
The December Law obligates the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to install advanced centrifuges, increase the level of nuclear enrichment to 20 percent and halt the Additional Protocol if the illegal sanctions against Iran are not lifted.
Iran insists all these steps are reversible if the parties to the 2015 nuclear deal – the JCPOA- honor their commitments.
Iran will remain party to the NPT Safeguards Agreement, although the government is obliged to prevent foreign access and monitoring beyond the Additional Protocol.
In the US, the think tanks Atlantic Council and Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft have published analyses, which warn Biden to race against the clock to escape the so far dangerous game between Iran and the US.
Robert E. Hunter, the 1990s US ambassador to NATO believes that “Biden must be willing to take some political heat” to break the current standoff between the two capitals.
He points to the “time” as a constraint and recommends: “The simplest first step would be for Biden, by a stroke of his pen, to reverse President Donald Trump’s May 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA. That would challenge Iran to de-escalate.”
The expert realizes that US domestic politics, Arab states of the Persian Gulf, and Israel are the main factors complicating Biden’s decision-making towards the Iran nuclear deal.
A practical solution to the impasse between Iran and the West
As long as we rely on independence, in its true sense, and on pure Islam, that is fighting oppression, relying on our own identity, and the West emphasizes its arrogant nature, we remain opposed to each other.
This conflict will end when one of the parties gives up its identity.
Either we become their servants, or the United States, as Imam Khomeini put it, stops acting so foolishly stubbornly. As long as this is the case, there will be conflicts. We’re by nature opposed to each other.
Hossein Shariatmadari, Editor in Chief, Keyhan Daily
Mikhail Ulyanov ambassador to the UN for Russia, one of Iran’s two friends among JCPOA signatories, also welcomed the US’s move to join talks. “Now is the time for realpolitik and diplomacy,” he said in a message to the US: “The sooner you and your Iranian colleagues as well as other JCPOA participants start pragmatic discussions on the way out of the current unfortunate situation the better.”
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