Egyptian Referendum's Message for Morsi

An excerpt of an interview with Mohammad Ali Mohtadi, an expert on regional affairs

What is your assessment of Egypt's constitutional referendum following the announcement of the results?

Based on the reports, only 33% of those who were eligible to vote participated in this referendum and 63.8% of them voted positively to the constitution. This number of participants is low for a constitution and if those who held this referendum had considered this matter, they should have provided more opportunities so that consensus would be created among different political groups with regard to the constitution. But apparently the government of Mr. Morsi acted hastily in writing the constitution and immediately holding the referendum. 

What was the reaction of the opposition to this referendum?

The opposition held demonstrations in Tahrir Square to protest against Mr. Morsi's constitutional draft. They first said that they would not participate in the referendum, but when they felt that the government was insisting on holding this referendum, they changed their position and announced their participation with their negative votes. This change of position had its impacts and some of the protesters did not participate in the referendum. That is why the number of positive votes was higher.

What was the composition of the votes?

While in a city like Cairo the majority voted negatively to the referendum, in remote areas, like Upper Egypt where there is a high illiteracy rate, the referendum received the highest number of votes. This shows that the majority of the people who voted for the constitution could basically not read it. Their motivation for agreeing with this constitution was solely religious and not based on an expert analysis.

What are the views of the opposition groups with regard to the results of the referendum? 

What is certain is that the government of Mr. Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Salafis of Egypt insist that this constitution is adopted and legitimate and must be the basis of affairs. So, elections should then be held for new members of parliament and institutions should be established and move towards normalization of the situation in the country. The opposition does not agree with this path. They have emphasized that they will continue their popular movement and peaceful demonstrations to eradicate the constitution. They believe that many rules have been violated in this referendum, including holding it on two days with one week apart, whereas it should have been done in one day throughout all of Egypt. They also reiterate that the judiciary did not supervise this referendum. 

How do you predict the political approach of the Muslim Brotherhood will be after the adoption of the constitution?

The future approach of the Muslim Brotherhood depends on several elements, some of which are related to Egypt’s domestic issues and some to the regional situation and international powers. There is no doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood, as an important movement, has a popular base. In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood is the most important organized group among the political factions which are present in the cities and villages. But there is one point and that is that power in Egypt is still in the hands of secret forces and power centers. It means that the security apparatus which had gained power with Anwar Sadat's presidency and later during Hosni Mubarak's tenure is still powerful. The revolution in Egypt has not been able to eliminate or even weaken this system.

What is the opposition's perspective of their future activities and what will their strategy be?

The position taken by these groups indicates that their struggle to undo the constitution will continue. They believe that numerous cases of violations have happened which questions the credibility of this referendum. In my opinion, their decision is to continue their opposition to the constitution. It appears that their opposition is to the constitution, but in fact they are unsatisfied with the situation which was created after the revolution in Egypt. They believe that national unity must be created in the country and no group must take hold of power and consider itself the majority.

Of course, there are different opposition groups. Perhaps the majority are the youth who gathered in Tahrir Square and started the revolution. But numerous academics, intellectuals, and members of the middle-class are also among the opposition. Naturally, some of the officials of the former regime have also entered these groups and anonymously enflame the fire of differences within Egyptian society. 

It does not seem that foreign forces agree with each other on the future of Egypt. Perhaps some of them prefer the present disorder to continue. The economic situation is also very dire. As you know, a huge amount of Egypt's income is gained through tourism, which, at the present time, has stopped due to social insecurity and other social problems. Foreign investments have also decreased and Egypt is moving towards receiving loans from foreign countries. 

Nevertheless, Egypt's conditions are very fragile and dangerous. We must wait and see what impacts the developments will have on the future of Egypt.

Imam Khomeini and Islamic Awakening

A month before the victory of the Islamic Revolution in1979, a reporter asked Imam Khomeini in Paris: Do you think that Iran’s events might be felt in Turkey? He Imam answered: the sacred movement of Iran is Islamic and hence it is natural for Muslims throughout the world to feel its impact.

The current awakening in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Morocco, Kuwait, and Libya, and earlier the driving of the Zionists out of Lebanon by the Islamic Resistance, and revival of the Palestinians' uprising in the usurped lands on the undefeatable principles of jihad and martyrdom, have unnerved the big powers.

The victory of the Islamic revolution of Iran led by Imam Khomeini showed to the oppressed nations of the world that with trust in God, steadfastness and reliance on the dynamic teachings of Islam one can overcome the most powerful regimes. Yahya Abdul-Aziz Jammeh the former Gambian president referred to the Islamic Revolution as the finest model for all Muslim states for liberation from the yoke of colonialism.

Imam Khomeini by reviving the practicability of Islam and its laws in Iran actually invited the ummah to rediscover its identity so that the hegemony of foreign powers in the economic, political and military fields could be broken. He said: Hopefully, world Muslims would comprehend their problems and by forging solidarity on the basis of Islam get rid of the colonialists. The basic option is that the Muslim nations and governments should try to get rid of their intellectual dependence on the West and strive to regain their culture and originality. He thus promoted scientific self-sufficiency and self-reliance without depending on foreign powers.

The Islamic movement of the Iranian people with its emphasis on spirituality and spread of Islamic culture breathed moral and spiritual identity into Muslim societies. Member of the scientific board of Iran's Imam Hussein University Dr. Hassan Ali Akbari says: despite the West's efforts to ignore Imam Khomeini’s thoughts, today world nations have become better aware of the Imam’s prophetic words.

The uprisings sweeping the Arab world are indicative of this fact. Imperialism is certainly on its last legs and so is Zionism. Once the Zionists had dreamt of a 'Greater Israel' spreading from the River Nile in Egypt to the River Euphrates in Iraq, but thanks to Imam Khomeini’s thoughts, this dream has been shattered and turned into a nightmare. The Late Imam had called for the eradication of the cancerous tumour called Israel.

Today more and more nations are demanding the end of Israel, as is evident by the slogans of the people of Egypt and other countries. In other words, the current of awakening is the real demand of humanity. This current needs a brave and scholar standard barrier and Imam Khomeini initiated this movement in the world. The Imam’s words stemmed from the genuine precepts of Islam and the natural language of the human being. Any person with commonsense who ponders over Imam Khomeini’s words, will naturally be inspired by them.

The campaign against oppression for restoration of the dignity of self-respect of nations and regaining of their rights were all inspired by Imam Khomeini. We keep alive the path of Imam Khomeini which according to the present Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, is the ever-lasting truth.

Israel’s operation Cloud Pillar in Gaza and the anti-Iranian campaign

 Vitaly Bilan

A strange war

Debates are still raging in both the Israeli and the regional media as to why it was necessary to expend so much energy and resources on operation Cloud Pillar and mobilize 75,000 reservists (7.5 times more than during Molten Lead, the IDF’s last operation in Gaza) just to enter a very hasty and far from triumphant truce with Hamas.

At first glance it does look strange, to say the least. The right-wing Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman, which has cultivated a “hawkish image,” agreed in exchange for a ceasefire to open border crossings with the Gaza Strip, ease the movement of people and goods, and allow freedom of movement in the so-called “security zone”. And it did so knowing full well that both the Palestinian and the Arab Street will consider it a crushing defeat of the Zionist regime.

Netanyahu may offer any number of excuses, as he did at the joint press conference with Avigdor Lieberman and Ehud Barak in Jerusalem on November 21, or he may get the state-controlled media to roll out counter-propaganda. But it will not convince the average Israeli voter, who, according to the polls, was willing to spend more time in bomb shelters just to crush Hamas.

The popular explanation for the government’s actions is that the military campaign was forced on Netanyahu, and he did everything he could to avoid it.

That is hard to believe, of course, knowing how keen the current Israeli prime minister’s political instincts and ability to maneuver between the raindrops are. The more so since, despite operation Cloud Pillar’s outward weakness, it was by and large a success.

After all, the chief objective of the military campaign in Gaza was not to take out Hamas, which is currently in disarray, but to test a number of elements that would be involved in a war with Israel’s much more serious enemy and main “headache” — Iran. While simultaneously “mopping up” the pro-Iranian elements in Gaza, of course.

“Mopping up” Iran’s rear area

I have said previously in the pages of New Eastern Outlook that, as a result of the “revolutionary” events in Syria, Hamas, which until recently was a monolith, has in fact become a mosaic structure consisting of groups aligned with regional forces that sometimes are in opposition to one another. I have also written that in recent years Qatar, sometimes alone and sometimes working through Egypt, is trying to “privatize” Hamas and other influential forces in Gaza.

Obviously, if the choice is between two evils, a “Qatari” Gaza currently looks more attractive than an “Iranian” Gaza. Therefore, the IDF’s military operations during operation Cloud Pillar looked like a “mopping up” of pro-Iranian figures and not a declared war on terror.

The assassination of al-Qassam Brigades commander Ahmed Jabari, which essentially began the military operation, is an eloquent example of that. The fact that the man killed was involved in the abduction of Israeli Corporal Gilad Shalit is doubtless an added “electoral bonus” for the Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu coalition in the parliamentary elections coming up on January 22.

But that was not the main factor here. Nor was it the fact that Jabari headed Hamas’ military wing, Gaza’s police forces and air defenses, or that he was Islamic Jihad’s propaganda chief. The main thing is that he was Tehran’s man.

Persistent rumors flying around Gaza suggested that the al-Qassam Brigades were preparing an armed coup to unseat the Strip’s current leadership led by the “renegade” Ismail Haniyeh, who has recently been openly declaring a pro-Qatari policy. That was particularly evident during the sensational October visit to Gaza by Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani. Incidentally, Israel decided to intimidate Haniyeh himself by firing on his villa, probably thinking that he had not yet come to a final decision about whom to side with.

All things considered, the job of clearing pro-Iranian elements out of Gaza can be considered a success. Israel’s situational ally — Qatar — can now safely use the “tamed” Hamas (and evidently its military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, as well) in its ambitious plans to restructure the Greater Middle East. Primarily in Syria.

And after operation Cloud Pillar, Israel will be able to count a “passage” through Iran’s rear areas as a plus.

Successes and “dizziness with success”

Israeli propaganda calls improvements to defense and warning systems one of the main differences between this operation and previous ones. The Iron Dome tactical missile defense system has been much discussed. It is designed to protect against rockets at ranges from 4 to 70 km, and it proved 87% effective during the military operation by shooting down a total of 421 rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip.

Moreover, an improvement to Iron Dome cut the number of interceptor missiles needed in half. The second achievement of the current Israeli government is improved relations with US President Barack Obama, which have not been exactly rosy in recent years.

An important plus for Israel has undoubtedly been progress in conducting information warfare, one of its biggest weaknesses. A specially trained team of Israeli “virtual warriors” fought the Arab “virtual street” quite successfully in the social networks.

Progress has clearly been made. Israel can also consider the anti-Iranian “training exercises conducted under near combat conditions” a positive achievement. In this regard, after feeling frustrated during the first few days of the truce with Hamas, the Israeli press began featuring more “gung ho” rhetoric. There has been wild praise for Iron Dome, the stoutheartedness of the home front, the courage those living in the south, the tremendous discipline of the Israelis, etc. After Cloud Pillar, Israel can beat Iran with one hand tied behind it.

However, it would do well to let things cool down somewhat. After all, although the Israelis have always been successful in war, throughout their modern history they have essentially only fought their “cousins” — the Arabs.

The mentality of the Persians differs greatly from that of the Arabs, despite the fact that they have a religion in common. They differ militarily, as well. And Israel’s “dizziness with success” may play a very cruel joke on it.

Vitaly Nikolayevich Bilan holds a Candidate of Science (History) degree and is an expert on the Middle East. This article was written expressly for New Eastern Outlook.